Home advantage in the National League playoffs

This is the 5th season since the National League decided to alter its playoff system. 6 teams. 4th plays 7th at home. 5th plays 6th at home. The winners then play away to the sides finishing 2nd and 3rd. The whole system is supposedly designed to benefit the teams finishing higher up the table by giving them home advantage. Teams finishing 2nd or 3rd play 1 home game. Teams finishing 4th or 5th play 1 home game and 1 away (if they win). Teams finishing 6th or 7th won't have a home game.

There have been 18 ties under this format. The home side has won 10.

Is home advantage really that big a deal in the playoffs? If there is an advantage, it's very slight, which echoes the playoffs in the football league. It's certainly not the big advantage some think it is.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

This is the 5th season since the National League decided to alter its playoff system. 6 teams. 4th plays 7th at home. 5th plays 6th at home. The winners then play away to the sides finishing 2nd and 3rd. The whole system is supposedly designed to benefit the teams finishing higher up the table by giving them home advantage. Teams finishing 2nd or 3rd play 1 home game. Teams finishing 4th or 5th play 1 home game and 1 away (if they win). Teams finishing 6th or 7th won't have a home game.

There have been 18 ties under this format. The home side has won 10.

Is home advantage really that big a deal in the playoffs? If there is an advantage, it's very slight, which echoes the playoffs in the football league. It's certainly not the big advantage some think it is.

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If offered a home or away tie in a one off game, would you be ambivalent or choose a home fixture?

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Originally Posted by StraightOuttaCanton

If offered a home or away tie in a one off game, would you be ambivalent or choose a home fixture?

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If it was Cardiff, away without any hesitation! :hehe:

You've proved immediately that the perception is that you'd rather be at home. The stats suggest home advantage isn't as great as people think it is. Over the last decade, home advantage has been less of a think than it was before, but we'd all want to have home advantage.

For me the reason for this is if you are the better team (as all of these examples are) playing at home adds pressure and they would rather play away.

The weaker side would normally prefer a home game though.

First time 6th & 7th have both progressed.

2nd v 6th

3rd v 7th

I get what the stats are saying, and we are a good example as you've pointed out, but like someone else said I think many would chose it given the option.

Maybe it doesn't always work out, but I feel much better watching Wales at the CCS than I would in either of the away Countries.

Maybe statistically it evens itself out, but in a one off game I'd always close us at the CCS!!
Perhaps the other home teams haven't enjoyed playing at home as much as we do? Who were the games, what were the rankings etc?

Teams, rankings, recent relevant home and away records for the home and away team.

Sorry I'm bored.

I think the IPL playoff format is great albeit with 4 teams so would work in the championship...

3 v 4 winner into final, loser into next round
5 v 6 winner into next round
Both in next round play off for the other final place

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Originally Posted by dembethewarrior

Teams, rankings, recent relevant home and away records for the home and away team.

Sorry I'm bored.

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A fee years ago I remember looking at recent form of teams going into the playoffs and how they fared. I don't have the data any more but,from memory, there was little correlation between form and playoff results. It was marginally in favour of teams in better form.

Home advantage in the playoffs is not as big as we'd think. There is a small advantage to playing at home in the second leg if you get a result away from home. If you lose the first leg away, you're more likely to lose the tie.

I think the vast majority would rather have home advantage. After all, there is a slight advantage to be gained if looking at it statistically. It is slight, though. At the end of the day it's about 2 relatively evenly matched teams playing a one off pressure, high stakes game. I reckon it usually comes down to which team wants it the most on the day. Some teams freeze under the pressure. I reckon that is more important than home advantage.

Given Wrexham's recent poor away and strong home form they will definitely want to play at home

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

If it was Cardiff, away without any hesitation! :hehe:

You've proved immediately that the perception is that you'd rather be at home. The stats suggest home advantage isn't as great as people think it is. Over the last decade, home advantage has been less of a think than it was before, but we'd all want to have home advantage.

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So, you’d genuinely choose that Cardiff play away if given the choice.

Out of interest, as you obviously have all the stats, do we throughout our total history have a better record at home or away over the thousands of games we’ve played. My hunch is we’re probably better at home.

The play off data is largely irrelevant in my opinion when you consider the comparative differences in statistical significance between them and total games played over history

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Originally Posted by Porth Pouncer

I think the IPL playoff format is great albeit with 4 teams so would work in the championship...

3 v 4 winner into final, loser into next round
5 v 6 winner into next round
Both in next round play off for the other final place

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I quite like this idea. Only thing would be to make sure the gap for the winners of 3 v 4 between that match and the final isn't long enough for them to lose sharpness.