Qualification update

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06-10-17, 21:19
Eric the Half a Bee

Qualification update

Obviously we know the connotations from Group D - A Welsh win and Serbian slip up and party time!

In terms of how tonight's results affect things...

Group I - Finland's last gasp equaliser in Croatia surely means Iceland will win the group. They won comfortably in Turkey and face the bottom side, Kosovo, at home. Croatia now travel to Ukraine where a point means they finish second. Ukraine need to win to get a playoff place. It means that 2nd place can only now have a maximum of 20 points - a draw between Croatia and Ukraine would still place Croatia above Wales on goal difference if Wales only drew.

At present there are 3 other groups where the runner up can only get a maximum of 20 points:

Group F - A Scotland win in Slovenia would give the runner-up 20 points, otherwise Slovakia virtually certain to have 18 points and finish 2nd.

Group H - Only Bosnia can get 20 points, but they host Belgium. Greece possibly can finish on 19 points if they win in Cyprus, otherwise runner-up may only have 17 points.

Group I - As mentioned. Winner of Croatia - Ukraine gets 20 points, 18 points apiece if they draw but Croatia above Wales if Wales have 18 points.

Basically, if Wales beat Ireland they will definitely be one of the top 8 runners-up unless Scotland thrash Slovenia by 3 more goals than we beat Ireland by, Bosnia beat Belgium and Croatia win or Ukraine win by a hatful, or Northern Ireland lose in Oslo. There might be permutations in group A, but I reckon they are very unlikely.

Would 1 point against Ireland be enough to guarantee a playoff spot? If Greece and Bosnia fail to win tomorrow, then yes. If not, then no.
06-10-17, 21:31
Eric the Half a Bee

Re: Qualification update

Just to add that, given results against the bottom team are scrapped (so Wales' 2 wins against Moldova don't count in the race to not be the worst runner-up), this won't affect the teams gunning for second position as mentioned above. Only France and Poland are affected - Poland should win their group, France probably too. The groups that we're looking towards in terms of lower points tallies, nothing to worry about.
06-10-17, 21:36
Pearcey3

Re: Qualification update

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Just to add that, given results against the bottom team are scrapped (so Wales' 2 wins against Moldova don't count in the race to not be the worst runner-up), this won't affect the teams gunning for second position as mentioned above. Only France and Poland are affected - Poland should win their group, France probably too. The groups that we're looking towards in terms of lower points tallies, nothing to worry about.

If Belgium can beat Bosnia it will make life a whole lot easier for us. Ireland cannot sit back against us and that is to our advantage.
06-10-17, 21:40
Eric the Half a Bee

Re: Qualification update

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pearcey3

If Belgium can beat Bosnia it will make life a whole lot easier for us. Ireland cannot sit back against us and that is to our advantage.

Hopefully Cyprus can get a result against Greece, too.

On the flip side of the coin, if we knew a point would be enough, would we end up being more defensively minded and play for a point? I'd hope not, but that's got to end up entering the minds of the players. Imagine it's 0-0, we only need a point, there's 10 minutes to go.....
06-10-17, 21:59
Pearcey3

Re: Qualification update

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Hopefully Cyprus can get a result against Greece, too.

On the flip side of the coin, if we knew a point would be enough, would we end up being more defensively minded and play for a point? I'd hope not, but that's got to end up entering the minds of the players. Imagine it's 0-0, we only need a point, there's 10 minutes to go.....

I know. :frown: