How many points are needed to secure promotion.

A piece on Wales Online suggests 87 although it shows in recent seasons 93 as being achieved which would leave us 29 to get.

Todate we have achieved an average of 1.94 per match. To hit 93 we need to do better and achieve 2.2
To get 87 would be 1.77

So where will the points come from? Our home results are crucial with 21 points on offer. To get them all would be fantastic. Sadly it doesn’t always work like that. On paper our away matches all look much harder. Even with all the home points we would still need to pick up a couple of wins away unless we draw every away game.

Beating Wolves and hoping that Wolves beat Villa and Fulham may be the key factor. A minimum of a draw away at Derby and Villa would harm their hopes as well as boost ours.

The key games and of which Fulham and Villa appear to have the easiest are:

Derby v Fulham
Derby v City
Villa v Derby
Wolves v Derby
Fulham v Wolves
Villa v Wolves
City v Wolves
Villa v City

Overall, Fulham look to have the ‘easiest’ run in.

So based on 93 still a tough run in.
Those of us who remember our last home match against Ipswich in 2009 will not want it left to our game against Reading!

Bristol H
Brentford A
Barnsley H
Birmingham H
Derby A
Burton H
Sheffield A
Wolves H
Villa A
Norwich A
Forest H
Hull A
Reading H

The teams finishing 3rd in the last 10 years have got: 85, 89, 86, 85, 77 (City top with 87), 86, 80, 79, 80, 75.

We don't need to get what 2nd did, just one more than 3rd. Who cares how far ahead of someone you are, Brighton could have gone up with 86 points as opposed to 93. We're currently on track for 89 points, Villa for 83. We need 8 wins and the odd draw.

dont think you can look at past seasons as any sort of barometer. just looking at the table now, can i see Villa getting 30 points from 13 matches? its possible but will be tough, especially if they still have a few injuries

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BLUEAWAY

A piece on Wales Online suggests 87 although it shows in recent seasons 93 as being achieved which would leave us 29 to get.

Todate we have achieved an average of 1.94 per match. To hit 93 we need to do better and achieve 2.2
To get 87 would be 1.77

So where will the points come from? Our home results are crucial with 21 points on offer. To get them all would be fantastic. Sadly it doesn’t always work like that. On paper our away matches all look much harder. Even with all the home points we would still need to pick up a couple of wins away unless we draw every away game.

Beating Wolves and hoping that Wolves beat Villa and Fulham may be the key factor. A minimum of a draw away at Derby and Villa would harm their hopes as well as boost ours.

The key games and of which Fulham and Villa appear to have the easiest are:

Derby v Fulham
Derby v City
Villa v Derby
Wolves v Derby
Fulham v Wolves
Villa v Wolves
City v Wolves
Villa v City

Overall, Fulham look to have the ‘easiest’ run in.

So based on 93 still a tough run in.
Those of us who remember our last home match against Ipswich in 2009 will not want it left to our game against Reading!

Bristol H
Brentford A
Barnsley H
Birmingham H
Derby A
Burton H
Sheffield A
Wolves H
Villa A
Norwich A
Forest H
Hull A
Reading H

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So, a few weeks on we have a great nine points more.
Fulham look unstoppable. So do Villa. So do we

Fulham look capable of getting 95pts and don’t have to play us or Villa

Assuming we can pick up points in the other games our matches against Villa and Wolves are becoming even more crucial for a top two spot.

We need 3 more points than did we did at 5pm yesterday.

Just more that the side in 3rd I guess

On current form it’s looking like whoever finishes 3rd is going to have a total that would get you automatics easily most seasons.

We could see 3, possibly 4 teams, getting to 90 points.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BLUEAWAY

So, a few weeks on we have a great nine points more.
Fulham look unstoppable. So do Villa. So do we

Fulham look capable of getting 95pts and don’t have to play us or Villa

Assuming we can pick up points in the other games our matches against Villa and Wolves are becoming even more crucial for a top two spot.

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This is the Championship. Fulham have had a great run against tough opposition. It would be so much the style of this division if they tripped up against some struggling teams. I remember when we won this division. We had won some tough home games and had a 100% home record going into an easy home game against the bottom team. Peterborough beat us 2-1.

I could see us grinding out some wins at Derby, Sheffield Utd and Villa and suddenly losing at home to Burton. That's why I seriously question people when they say Villa or Fulham are going to win virtually all of their games. They won't. There'll be unexpected results. The hope is that we have less of them than Villa or Fulham.

27 point is the simple answer :hehe:

I think 21 will be enough and definately gettable. Villa would then need 25 from 10 and Fulham 26 from 9. If either of them get that then hats off to them.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dml1954

I think 21 will be enough and definately gettable. Villa would then need 25 from 10 and Fulham 26 from 9. If either of them get that then hats off to them.

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If Fulham get 26 from 9 I'm demanding an investigation 😂

Stats are good. However, I feel the whole thing is a lot more symbiotic than cold, hard numbers. What’s going on around you makes all the difference.

At this stage of the season, whilst there are no guarantees, you probably want to play teams who have little to play for, given the choice. That’s why I think we will get promotion if we manage to hold onto our current position over the next six games.

Brentford, Derby, Burton, Sheff Utd, Wolves and Villa all have somethibg to play for and will be putting in maximum effort and focus.

Norwich, Forest, Hull and Reading (our last 4) will all be mid table with nothing to play for. If we get to Norwich with the four point cushion remaining then, and only then, would I back us to clinch an automatic spot.

(book)Mark my words, the season will rest upon the next month and six games.

Nosferatu

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BLUEAWAY

A piece on Wales Online suggests 87 although it shows in recent seasons 93 as being achieved which would leave us 29 to get.

Todate we have achieved an average of 1.94 per match. To hit 93 we need to do better and achieve 2.2
To get 87 would be 1.77

So where will the points come from? Our home results are crucial with 21 points on offer. To get them all would be fantastic. Sadly it doesn’t always work like that. On paper our away matches all look much harder. Even with all the home points we would still need to pick up a couple of wins away unless we draw every away game.

Beating Wolves and hoping that Wolves beat Villa and Fulham may be the key factor. A minimum of a draw away at Derby and Villa would harm their hopes as well as boost ours.

The key games and of which Fulham and Villa appear to have the easiest are:

Derby v Fulham
Derby v City
Villa v Derby
Wolves v Derby
Fulham v Wolves
Villa v Wolves
City v Wolves
Villa v City

Overall, Fulham look to have the ‘easiest’ run in.

So based on 93 still a tough run in.
Those of us who remember our last home match against Ipswich in 2009 will not want it left to our game against Reading!

Bristol H
Brentford A
Barnsley H
Birmingham H
Derby A
Burton H
Sheffield A
Wolves H
Villa A
Norwich A
Forest H
Hull A
Reading H

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Unless the team that finished third had 92 points then 93 wasn't needed was it?
Brighton has 89 points and that was well above the average of 82/83 points for third place. They finished third on goal difference missing out by -2 goals to Boro.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Lawnmower

If Fulham get 26 from 9 I'm demanding an investigation 😂

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38 from their last 45 available.

I think they could have had a blip but mitrovic has put stop to that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dembethewarrior

38 from their last 45 available.

I think they could have had a blip but mitrovic has put stop to that.

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Think about 26 from 9 with 3 for a win, 1 for a draw 😉

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Lawnmower

Think about 26 from 9 with 3 for a win, 1 for a draw 😉

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My maths skills are outstanding fait play..

I may be proved wrong, but I don't think we'll need ninety points plus. I notice that Villa and Fulham both have to go to Millwall yet and, for me, that's a game that both of them will do very well to get maximum points from - I don't think any of the sides in promotion contention have left the New Den with a win have they?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

I may be proved wrong, but I don't think we'll need ninety points plus. I notice that Villa and Fulham both have to go to Millwall yet and, for me, that's a game that both of them will do very well to get maximum points from - I don't think any of the sides in promotion contention have left the New Den with a win have they?

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They have lost 3 at home and they were to Barnsley Burton and Brentford.

They've beat Shef Utd and Boro, drawn with Wolves Cardiff Preston and Derby.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dembethewarrior

38 from their last 45 available.

I think they could have had a blip but mitrovic has put stop to that.

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That's 2.5 points a game. If Fulham replicate that in their last 9 games, it will give them a total of 91 points (rounding up). In contrast, we have averaged 2.2 points a game our last 15, if we replicate that in our last 10, that puts us on 95.

Villa have taken 32 points from their last 15 games, if they replicate that in their last 10 they will finish on 90.

So, if the three teams mentioned continue on their current form with no slip ups, we have nothing to worry about.

Wolves on the other hand, have taken 25 points in their last 15 games, replicating that over their remaining 10 gives them 17 points (rounded up) giving them a total of 93 points.

92