Number of wins for survival
We've got 7 at the moment. Yes, this is a more crude method than looking at points, but maybe it forms a target as well.
Looking back over the last 20 PL seasons, the highest number of wins acheived by a relegated side is 10. This has happened 5 times in 20 seasons. 9 has been the highest on another 5 occasions, followed by 8 (9 times) and 7 (once). No team has won 11 games and been relegated.
It's worth noting that all bar one team that was relegated with 10 wins had less draws than wins. This is an unusual occurrance, happening to less than a third of all relegated teams over the last 2 decades. It's worth pointing out this as we have far fewer draws than wins. In those seasons where 10 wins still saw sides relegated, there were sides above them with less wins but much more draws.
It goes without saying that if we could have managed another 5-6 draws, we'd be comfortable at the moment. Only Fulham and Huddersfield have lost more matches than us. It is maybe more worrying that teams with the most losses in a season are more likely to go down than those with the fewest wins, simply because of the number of draws.
No side in 20 years has gone down with 11 wins, which we're 4 wins away from achieving. If we got that plus a couple of draws, 39 points might be enough. 37 might not be. 11 wins should mean survival, but because of the low number of draws we've managed (and therefore high number of defeats), that's not guaranteed.
Re: Number of wins for survival
We need to take points from those around us. Especially Burnley and Brighton. I fear the 4 points dropped against Huddersfield may come back to haunt us.
Re: Number of wins for survival
In answer to your question, the same number of wins as Huddersfield, Fulham and Southampton should see us safe :wales:
Re: Number of wins for survival
Quote:
Originally Posted by
NYCBlue
We need to take points from those around us. Especially Burnley and Brighton. I fear the 4 points dropped against Huddersfield may come back to haunt us.
At home Huddersfield dropped two points against us, they were superior to us on the day.
Re: Number of wins for survival
I think 4 more will see us through and we have 8 winnable games left imo
Re: Number of wins for survival
12 more points I think will see us over the line.
Re: Number of wins for survival
Interesting but after points it’s goal difference that in my mind is the true measure of the worst teams. We’re going to be on of the 4 worst in that category
Re: Number of wins for survival
Quote:
Originally Posted by
BLUETIT
In answer to your question, the same number of wins as Huddersfield, Fulham and Southampton should see us safe :wales:
If we have the same number of wins as Southampton, they'll almost certainly finish above us as they've drawn 5 more games than us. Fulham and Huddersfield have drawn more games than us (1) but it would be unlikely that Fulham win the same number as us over the season if we won 3 (they'd need 6). Huddersfield need Premier League winning form to survive.
Re: Number of wins for survival
Looking at the fixtures Newcastle and Brighton will have a big say on who’s in bottom 3 but I prefer our run to Southamptons.
Re: Number of wins for survival
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
We've got 7 at the moment. Yes, this is a more crude method than looking at points, but maybe it forms a target as well.
Looking back over the last 20 PL seasons, the highest number of wins acheived by a relegated side is 10. This has happened 5 times in 20 seasons. 9 has been the highest on another 5 occasions, followed by 8 (9 times) and 7 (once). No team has won 11 games and been relegated.
It's worth noting that all bar one team that was relegated with 10 wins had less draws than wins. This is an unusual occurrance, happening to less than a third of all relegated teams over the last 2 decades. It's worth pointing out this as we have far fewer draws than wins. In those seasons where 10 wins still saw sides relegated, there were sides above them with less wins but much more draws.
It goes without saying that if we could have managed another 5-6 draws, we'd be comfortable at the moment. Only Fulham and Huddersfield have lost more matches than us. It is maybe more worrying that teams with the most losses in a season are more likely to go down than those with the fewest wins, simply because of the number of draws.
No side in 20 years has gone down with 11 wins, which we're 4 wins away from achieving. If we got that plus a couple of draws, 39 points might be enough. 37 might not be. 11 wins should mean survival, but because of the low number of draws we've managed (and therefore high number of defeats), that's not guaranteed.
Makes great reading this ,just imagine if we win our next two home games ,not beyond us with a might big effort,and some much need good fortune ?
Re: Number of wins for survival
Quote:
Originally Posted by
life on mars
Makes great reading this ,just imagine if we win our next two home games ,not beyond us with a might big effort,and some much need good fortune ?
That’s the thing with so many teams on a similar number of points, 2 wins makes a huge amount of difference.
Look at where we were prior to the Bournemouth game
