2020/21: the most predictable Championship on record?

Each year before the football season begins, I get myself a copy of the Racing Post's annual Big Kick-Off publication. This excellent 72-page betting guide is free with the paper on the Tuesday before the campaign starts and covers all the major UK and European leagues. It's always interesting to look back at the bookmakers' pre-season prices after a campaign has finished and it turns out the big firms were pretty much spot on with their 2020/21 Championship predictions.

The three clear pre-season favourites for promotion were Watford (15/8), Norwich (9/4) and Brentford (9/4). Meanwhile, the clear favourites for relegation were Wycombe (1/2), Sheffield Wednesday (15/8) and Rotherham (2/1).

I've looked back at the pre-season prices for the previous five years and this hasn't even been close to happening before during that time. In 2019/20, the two favourites for promotion, Leeds and Fulham, did manage to go up, but the third-favourites (Cardiff City) failed to get promoted. Meanwhile, the prices for relegation were far more congested and only one of the three favourites (Charlton) ended up going down.

During the other four years the picture was much more mixed, with some genuine long shots gaining promotion (such as Norwich and Sheffield United in 2018/19, Cardiff in 2017/18 and Huddersfield in 2016/17), and some equally surprising relegations (for instance, Sunderland in 2017/18 and Wigan in 2016/17).

In terms of the pre-season prices for 2020/21, the biggest under-achievers were Nottingham Forest, who were generally priced to finish 5th or 6th, and Derby County, who were expected to finish 9th or 10th. Meanwhile, the major over-achievers were Barnsley, who were 16th in most bookies' lists, and Reading, who were priced to finish as low as 19th or 20th. The rest of the division ended up pretty much as expected. For instance, Cardiff were priced to finish 7th, Middlesbrough were expected to end up 10th, Millwall 11th, Preston 13th and Blackburn 15th.

In my opinion, the play-offs perfectly encapsulated what I believe was a seriously poor-quality Championship in 2020/21. Brentford, who were easily the third-best side in the division, eventually prevailed with something to spare. Bournemouth's squad contained plenty of obvious talent, but the Cherries rarely looked like they had the stomach for the fight, as demonstrated during the second leg of their semi-final. Meanwhile, a desperately ordinary Swansea side were able to maintain a top-six place from the early weeks of the campaign but were comfortably beaten by Brentford in the end, while Barnsley performed admirably to earn a play-off spot but clearly lacked genuine ability.

Thanks to the pandemic, I ended up watching more Championship football than usual during 2020/21 and much of it was poor fare. Most of the teams in the division looked weak by usual standards and very few individual players stood out. No doubt a lack of spectators had an effect on the overall quality of the entertainment, but by and large the football was grim. To me at least, the gap between the Premier League and the second tier has never looked bigger.

Hopefully, the circumstances created by Covid-19 will shake things up a bit during the coming months in terms of the transfer market and the football in the Championship in 2021/22 will not only improve, but the markets for promotion and relegation will be far more difficult for the bookmakers to predict.

I think it could be more wide open next season. Sheff Utd have had a mare of a season. I struggle to see them turning into challenging for autos.

Fulham who knows. A lot of loans there but probably the favourites.

West Brom also really looked like relegation certainties months ago.

The rest of the Championship average.

Swansea the losing play off finalists will lose their loanees and almost certainly their best player.

Really could be wide open.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Each year before the football season begins, I get myself a copy of the Racing Post's annual Big Kick-Off publication. This excellent 72-page betting guide is free with the paper on the Tuesday before the campaign starts and covers all the major UK and European leagues. It's always interesting to look back at the bookmakers' pre-season prices after a campaign has finished and it turns out the big firms were pretty much spot on with their 2020/21 Championship predictions.

The three clear pre-season favourites for promotion were Watford (15/8), Norwich (9/4) and Brentford (9/4). Meanwhile, the clear favourites for relegation were Wycombe (1/2), Sheffield Wednesday (15/8) and Rotherham (2/1).

I've looked back at the pre-season prices for the previous five years and this hasn't even been close to happening before during that time. In 2019/20, the two favourites for promotion, Leeds and Fulham, did manage to go up, but the third-favourites (Cardiff City) failed to get promoted. Meanwhile, the prices for relegation were far more congested and only one of the three favourites (Charlton) ended up going down.

During the other four years the picture was much more mixed, with some genuine long shots gaining promotion (such as Norwich and Sheffield United in 2018/19, Cardiff in 2017/18 and Huddersfield in 2016/17), and some equally surprising relegations (for instance, Sunderland in 2017/18 and Wigan in 2016/17).

In terms of the pre-season prices for 2020/21, the biggest under-achievers were Nottingham Forest, who were generally priced to finish 5th or 6th, and Derby County, who were expected to finish 9th or 10th. Meanwhile, the major over-achievers were Barnsley, who were 16th in most bookies' lists, and Reading, who were priced to finish as low as 19th or 20th. The rest of the division ended up pretty much as expected. For instance, Cardiff were priced to finish 7th, Middlesbrough were expected to end up 10th, Millwall 11th, Preston 13th and Blackburn 15th.

In my opinion, the play-offs perfectly encapsulated what I believe was a seriously poor-quality Championship in 2020/21. Brentford, who were easily the third-best side in the division, eventually prevailed with something to spare. Bournemouth's squad contained plenty of obvious talent, but the Cherries rarely looked like they had the stomach for the fight, as demonstrated during the second leg of their semi-final. Meanwhile, a desperately ordinary Swansea side were able to maintain a top-six place from the early weeks of the campaign but were comfortably beaten by Brentford in the end, while Barnsley performed admirably to earn a play-off spot but clearly lacked genuine ability.

Thanks to the pandemic, I ended up watching more Championship football than usual during 2020/21 and much of it was poor fare. Most of the teams in the division looked weak by usual standards and very few individual players stood out. No doubt a lack of spectators had an effect on the overall quality of the entertainment, but by and large the football was grim. To me at least, the gap between the Premier League and the second tier has never looked bigger.

Hopefully, the circumstances created by Covid-19 will shake things up a bit during the coming months in terms of the transfer market and the football in the Championship in 2021/22 will not only improve, but the markets for promotion and relegation will be far more difficult for the bookmakers to predict.

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Think the short pre season had something to do with why the three relegated sizes were stronger than normal and two of the promoted sides were not just relegated, but finished such a long way short of safety in the Premier League. The lack of a summer break also contributed to a higher than normal number of tired footballers I believe - I agree about the poor standard of this year’s Championship, but it was a unique season.

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Originally Posted by Hilts

Swansea the losing play off finalists will lose their loanees and almost certainly their best player.

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Ayew will undoubtedly be a big miss for them if he leaves, but people said the same about their loanees last year. Indeed, one of the Racing Post's Championship tipster's 'best bets' for the 2020/21 was Cardiff to finish above Swansea precisely because they were losing their loan players. In the event, they brought in some more really good loan signings.

His major tips for 2020/21 were Norwich to win the Championship at 13/2 and Cardiff to be promoted at 5/1. He also thought Luton would be relegated, so he was way off with that one.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Think the short pre season had something to do with why the three relegated sizes were stronger than normal and two of the promoted sides were not just relegated, but finished such a long way short of safety in the Premier League. The lack of a summer break also contributed to a higher than normal number of tired footballers I believe - I agree about the poor standard of this year’s Championship, but it was a unique season.

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I think and very much hope you're right. This season there were effectively just three genuinely good sides in the division (the three who got promoted, obviously), although to be honest I don't think any of them were that great. Their tasks were made much easier by the general weakness of the rest of the division. I reckon Daniel Farke's a really decent manager, but I bet he couldn't believe his luck this year.

as long as people keep paying to watch live football then the gap between the premiership and the other leagues will continue to widen

Don't watch it

Or if you have to .....

Don't pay for it

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Ayew will undoubtedly be a big miss for them if he leaves, but people said the same about their loanees last year. Indeed, one of the Racing Post's Championship tipster's 'best bets' for the 2020/21 was Cardiff to finish above Swansea precisely because they were losing their loan players. In the event, they brought in some more really good loan signings.

His major tips for 2020/21 were Norwich to win the Championship at 13/2 and Cardiff to be promoted at 5/1. He also thought Luton would be relegated, so he was way off with that one.

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Yes theyve done well with their loans the last couple of seasons.

Guehi has been a brilliant loan. He signed for 18 months so was always returning. Hes going to be a big loss.

Doubt he will get a regular spot with Chelsea but can see a PL loan maybe somewhere like Palace.

We are such a championship club, can’t recall the exact numbers but we have spent far more time in this league than any other.

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Originally Posted by goats

We are such a championship club, can’t recall the exact numbers but we have spent far more time in this league than any other.

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No we haven’t!

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Originally Posted by cityhammer

No we haven’t!

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Just did a quick tally-up (so I could be one or two out).

The figures for seasons spent in each division are:

Level one: 17 seasons

Level two: 48 seasons

Level three: 19 seasons

Level four: 10 seasons

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Just did a quick tally-up (so I could be one or two out).

The figures for seasons spent in each division are:

Level one: 17 seasons

Level two: 48 seasons

Level three: 19 seasons

Level four: 10 seasons

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There we go

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Originally Posted by cityhammer

No we haven’t!

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:hehe:

We’ve gone down four times in our last five seasons in the First Division/Premier League. I was too young to see the first two relegations, but there was certainly an expectation among supporters that we’d most likely go down in 13/14 and 18/19. I shared that view first time around, but my mind was changed by how the two other promoted sides, who had both finished quite a long way behind us, were able to survive at the higher level with a fair bit to spare. Second time around, we had our manager talking as if it was some sort of miracle that we got promoted and it would be another one if we survived- maybe we spend so much time in the second tier because we don’t think we’re good enough for the first one?

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

maybe we spend so much time in the second tier because we don’t think we’re good enough for the first one?

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Fair point; we've been conditioned to believe this is where we "belong". Apparently one of Chris Coleman's pep talks in the Euro 16 qualifying was to tell his players to forget Wales' previous failures and write their own story. Perhaps Mick McCarthy should say a similar thing in Aug 2022.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Just did a quick tally-up (so I could be one or two out).

The figures for seasons spent in each division are:

Level one: 17 seasons

Level two: 48 seasons

Level three: 19 seasons

Level four: 10 seasons

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Sorry I misinterpreted the post, thought it was saying we’d spent more time in 2nd tier than any other (club)! Apologies.

I thought it was a Poor Championship this season. I was baffled how a limited Barnsley side went on such a fantastic run. Swansea were bang average. These two finished 4th and 5th.
I did think Brentford were a very good side though. The best team we played this season by a distance.

The Championship is crap, the Premier League is crap, Cardiff City are crap, blah de blah de blah. Why bother watching or going to games at all, just sit at home picking holes in everything to do with football and life in general. Personally just cant wait to the new season started and getting back into City stadium again.

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Originally Posted by dml1954

The Championship is crap, the Premier League is crap, Cardiff City are crap, blah de blah de blah. Why bother watching or going to games at all, just sit at home picking holes in everything to do with football and life in general. Personally just cant wait to the new season started and getting back into City stadium again.

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Well said DML, what's the point of this thread, in fact, what's the point in discussing anything about ccfc on a ccfc message board.well said lad.

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Originally Posted by dml1954

The Championship is crap, the Premier League is crap, Cardiff City are crap, blah de blah de blah. Why bother watching or going to games at all, just sit at home picking holes in everything to do with football and life in general.

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The Premier League isn't crap. The Championship was mostly crap in 2020/21. Cardiff City in 2020/21 were big, strong, direct and good at scoring goals from set-pieces. Those qualities enabled them to finish 8th in the table because the Championship was crap.

What else is crap? Well, let's see now..... According to recent posts on this board from that wise old owl dml1954, the Europa Conference League is crap, Swansea City are crap, Slavisa Jokanovic is crap, Leandro Bacuna is crap, weather forecasters are crap, Fulham are crap, Allie Sherlock is crap, Walesonline is crap, Newport County are crap, Joe Allen is crap, Wrexham's owners are crap, the Labour party are crap, Scott Johnson is crap, Kadeem Harris is crap, Tom Cairney is crap and loads of contributors to this board are crap.

I know dml1954 sounds like somebody who just sits at home picking holes in everything to do with football and life in general, but in reality he's a top-class comedian.

:thumbup:

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

I know dml1954 sounds like somebody who just sits at home picking holes in everything to do with football and life in general, but in reality he's a top-class comedian.

:thumbup:

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Nah, he’s crap:hehe:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

The Premier League isn't crap. The Championship was mostly crap in 2020/21. Cardiff City in 2020/21 were big, strong, direct and good at scoring goals from set-pieces. Those qualities enabled them to finish 8th in the table because the Championship was crap.

What else is crap? Well, let's see now..... According to recent posts on this board from that wise old owl dml1954, the Europa Conference League is crap, Swansea City are crap, Slavisa Jokanovic is crap, Leandro Bacuna is crap, weather forecasters are crap, Fulham are crap, Allie Sherlock is crap, Walesonline is crap, Newport County are crap, Joe Allen is crap, Wrexham's owners are crap, the Labour party are crap, Scott Johnson is crap, Kadeem Harris is crap, Tom Cairney is crap and loads of contributors to this board are crap.

I know dml1954 sounds like somebody who just sits at home picking holes in everything to do with football and life in general, but in reality he's a top-class comedian.

:thumbup:

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‘Cardiff City in 2020/21 were big, strong, direct and good at scoring goals from set-pieces.’

In the five years I have been posting on this board, that is the first time that you have posted anything remotely positive about the club that you say that you support and that really says it all doesn't it. Did it give you a nosebleed or make you feel faint ? PS. I have never at any time made any comment on the new owners of Wrexham FC, so you made that one up. Also the people who I really think are crap are basically the 15-20 people on this board, including you, who spend all their time slagging Cardiff City off. If I started listing the things that you think are crap at Cardiff City, football or the world generally, we would be here all day. You complaining that I moan about things is also highly ironic - you have made a profession out of it.

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Originally Posted by Tuerto

Well said DML, what's the point of this thread, in fact, what's the point in discussing anything about ccfc on a ccfc message board.well said lad.

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So everyone is allowed to give their opinion on a thread apart from me and anyone else you disagree with then. OK, as long as I know I will bear that in mind.

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Originally Posted by dml1954

So everyone is allowed to give their opinion on a thread apart from me and anyone else you disagree with then. OK, as long as I know I will bear that in mind.

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Good Man :thumbup: