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Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
There is no cure .
There wont be a vaccine for some time .
For the country to move forward and get back on its feet , on the whole ,we all have to get it .
Once the number of deaths drop below a certain point , restrictions will be lifted and we will start again.
The deaths are being controlled , which is of course sensible .
The hospital in the millennium stadium is a sign of things to come .
The only positive I can think about it at the moment is a lot of us have had it and aren't aware.
Anyone disagree with my interpretation of the current situation ?
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimmy the Jock
Anyone disagree with my interpretation of the current situation ?
I disagree. I don't think there has ever been a pandemic during which 100% of the population were infected.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
The Lone Gunman
I disagree. I don't think there has ever been a pandemic during which 100% of the population were infected.
Very clever (as expected) ...The vast majority perhaps . They are going to open the doors and contaminate another group of people.
Then close them and deal with the sick
Do you disagree with that ? Until the vast majority have caught the virus.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimmy the Jock
Very clever (as expected) ...The vast majority perhaps . They are going to open the doors and contaminate another group of people.
Then close them and deal with the sick
Do you disagree with that ? Until there is no one left to catch the virus.
I don't even know what you're talking about to be honest. It makes no sense to me.
I'm not an expert on pandemics and I wouldn't like to guess how this one will end up, but I think suggesting that everyone is going to get it eventually is nonsense based on everything I've heard and read.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimmy the Jock
Very clever (as expected) ...The vast majority perhaps . They are going to open the doors and contaminate another group of people.
Then close them and deal with the sick
Do you disagree with that ? Until the vast majority have caught the virus.
I think if that happens unless it’s done ridiculously slowly we would end up with too many deaths.
How many have it now? 1% of the population? 5%?
We’ve already had 4000 deaths.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Croesy Blue
I think if that happens unless it’s done ridiculously slowly we would end up with too many deaths.
How many have it now? 1% of the population? 5%?
We’ve already had 4000 deaths.
The only figures they are giving is for people tested , when we cant test the people in the front line ,our NHS workers , then , the figures mean nothing.
I remember them saying one person could contaminate 400 people in a very short period , it gives an idea how far out the figures are.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Not at all.What the OP is saying that all the people that manage to duck it this time around may well get it next time.I think at a guess the number of people as a percentage who don't succombe to this virus at any time will be in the lower single digits.A vaccine of some sort will eventually help.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
I have pondered on this myself. As a 70+ year old I am obliged to stay at home 24/7, so here I am in splendid isolation for the last 2 weeks and maybe many more weeks yet. It's not too bad, just missing face to face contact with friends and family. Even when this episode is deemed to be officially "over" and I go out and about once again, how can I be sure that there still aren't a significant number of folk who are asymptomatic also out and about? Might it not have been better that I had caught the virus now and thereby got some immunity? The problem is I would never know if I had got the milder form of the disease, or if not, it would have killed me anyway!
I wouldn't put any store in getting the vaccine - that's going to be a very long way off and, not unreasonably, us geriatrics are going to be way down the priority list!
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimmy the Jock
There is no cure .
There wont be a vaccine for some time .
For the country to move forward and get back on its feet , on the whole ,we all have to get it .
Once the number of deaths drop below a certain point , restrictions will be lifted and we will start again.
The deaths are being controlled , which is of course sensible .
The hospital in the millennium stadium is a sign of things to come .
The only positive I can think about it at the moment is a lot of us have had it and aren't aware.
Anyone disagree with my interpretation of the current situation ?
The examples of China and other Asian countries argue otherwise. Also, my understanding is that previous coronaviruses, including the seemingly more deadly SARS, were on the wane before a vaccine was discovered.
If we are all going to get it though, surely, it is best to do all we can to postpone such an event as long as we can so the best chance is given to getting a vaccine?
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimmy the Jock
There is no cure .
There wont be a vaccine for some time .
For the country to move forward and get back on its feet , on the whole ,we all have to get it .
Once the number of deaths drop below a certain point , restrictions will be lifted and we will start again.
The deaths are being controlled , which is of course sensible .
The hospital in the millennium stadium is a sign of things to come .
The only positive I can think about it at the moment is a lot of us have had it and aren't aware.
Anyone disagree with my interpretation of the current situation ?
This probably explains why you are being a wanker and going out and about as if it is normal.
If my parents get it, they will very likely be hospitalised. If that happens, I don't think they will get a ventilator ahead of the many younger people who need them.
The deaths are not being controlled. We are at the start of that curve.
I appreciate you need to get out and about and this is all a terrible inconvenience to you, but herd immunity projected 200,000 deaths and this lockdown projects 7000-20000 deaths.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Croesy Blue
I think if that happens unless it’s done ridiculously slowly we would end up with too many deaths.
How many have it now? 1% of the population? 5%?
We’ve already had 4000 deaths.
The most recent estimate I have seen is 2.7% of the population.
We need the anti-body test.
The vaccine will come after so called herd immunity.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimmy the Jock
The only figures they are giving is for people tested , when we cant test the people in the front line ,our NHS workers , then , the figures mean nothing.
I remember them saying one person could contaminate 400 people in a very short period , it gives an idea how far out the figures are.
So what percentage of the country do you think has it?
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gofer Blue
I have pondered on this myself. As a 70+ year old I am obliged to stay at home 24/7, so here I am in splendid isolation for the last 2 weeks and maybe many more weeks yet. It's not too bad, just missing face to face contact with friends and family. Even when this episode is deemed to be officially "over" and I go out and about once again, how can I be sure that there still aren't a significant number of folk who are asymptomatic also out and about? Might it not have been better that I had caught the virus now and thereby got some immunity? The problem is I would never know if I had got the milder form of the disease, or if not, it would have killed me anyway!
I wouldn't put any store in getting the vaccine - that's going to be a very long way off and, not unreasonably, us geriatrics are going to be way down the priority list!
My mother is 80 and has "underlying health issues" I usually see her once a week .
I haven't seen her since I read the consequences of this virus. She has stayed in for a couple of weeks, like yourself, and I do worry
how long will it be before she is able to leave the house safely.
If my thoughts on this are correct it will be some time away.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gofer Blue
I have pondered on this myself. As a 70+ year old I am obliged to stay at home 24/7, so here I am in splendid isolation for the last 2 weeks and maybe many more weeks yet. It's not too bad, just missing face to face contact with friends and family. Even when this episode is deemed to be officially "over" and I go out and about once again, how can I be sure that there still aren't a significant number of folk who are asymptomatic also out and about? Might it not have been better that I had caught the virus now and thereby got some immunity? The problem is I would never know if I had got the milder form of the disease, or if not, it would have killed me anyway!
I wouldn't put any store in getting the vaccine - that's going to be a very long way off and, not unreasonably, us geriatrics are going to be way down the priority list!
If they follow the model with the seasonal flu jabs, the vulnerable (including us oldies) will actually be higher priority.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Croesy Blue
So what percentage of the country do you think has it?
Has it... has had it …?
It would appear to have very different affects on all of us .
I couldn't guess . The test which tells us who has had it will be the way forward.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bobh
If they follow the model with the seasonal flu jabs, the vulnerable (including us oldies) will actually be higher priority.
I agree. If the situation was reversed and there was something that was much more dangerous to youngsters than oldies, I would not expect or want to be getting any vaccine in front of them.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
When numbers of new cases and numbers in intensive care (currently 1600) start falling, they will relax the restrictions a little.
The key thing is how quickly the number of new cases drops once we reach the peak.
Once that drops, they will allow kids back to school (maybe with monitoring of their temperature). After a few weeks of that, people will be allowed to travel back to work, maybe shops will reopen, but with a maximum number of people allowed.
The vulnerable are only on week 2 of a 12 week lockdown, so that gives you an idea of the timeline. Ideally, they will want kids in school before removing restrictions on the vulnerable.
However, if people continue flouting the rules, then this will go on a lot longer. Mainly because we can't be trusted to follow guidelines.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
The examples of China and other Asian countries argue otherwise. Also, my understanding is that previous coronaviruses, including the seemingly more deadly SARS, were on the wane before a vaccine was discovered.
If we are all going to get it though, surely, it is best to do all we can to postpone such an event as long as we can so the best chance is given to getting a vaccine?
That is quite interesting ,would you know why they started to wane , What was the turning point ?
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CCFCC3PO
When numbers of new cases and numbers in intensive care (currently 1600) start falling, they will relax the restrictions a little.
The key thing is how quickly the number of new cases drops once we reach the peak.
Once that drops, they will allow kids back to school (maybe with monitoring of their temperature). After a few weeks of that, people will be allowed to travel back to work, maybe shops will reopen, but with a maximum number of people allowed.
The vulnerable are only on week 2 of a 12 week lockdown, so that gives you an idea of the timeline. Ideally, they will want kids in school before removing restrictions on the vulnerable.
However, if people continue flouting the rules, then this will go on a lot longer. Mainly because we can't be trusted to follow guidelines.
Do you think the rules will be relaxed just once ?
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CCFCC3PO
When numbers of new cases and numbers in intensive care (currently 1600) start falling, they will relax the restrictions a little.
The key thing is how quickly the number of new cases drops once we reach the peak.
Once that drops, they will allow kids back to school (maybe with monitoring of their temperature). After a few weeks of that, people will be allowed to travel back to work, maybe shops will reopen, but with a maximum number of people allowed.
The vulnerable are only on week 2 of a 12 week lockdown, so that gives you an idea of the timeline. Ideally, they will want kids in school before removing restrictions on the vulnerable.
However, if people continue flouting the rules, then this will go on a lot longer. Mainly because we can't be trusted to follow guidelines.
But how (and this question is aimed at everybody not just you) does slowly relaxing the rules not mean a slow build up of patients again? So if we slowly relax the rules and in 8 months it's more or less back to normal then why doesn't the virus spread like wildfire again in 8 months? There's no vaccine, nothing's really changed, nowhere near enough people will have had it for effective herd immunity (assuming that 80% of the population won't have had it by then)
So how do we get back to normal before a vaccine arrives? What am I missing?
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
delmbox
But how (and this question is aimed at everybody not just you) does slowly relaxing the rules not mean a slow build up of patients again? So if we slowly relax the rules and in 8 months it's more or less back to normal then why doesn't the virus spread like wildfire again in 8 months? There's no vaccine, nothing's really changed, nowhere near enough people will have had it for effective herd immunity (assuming that 80% of the population won't have had it by then)
So how do we get back to normal before a vaccine arrives? What am I missing?
Slightly more eloquent than myself .
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
The examples of China and other Asian countries argue otherwise. Also, my understanding is that previous coronaviruses, including the seemingly more deadly SARS, were on the wane before a vaccine was discovered.
If we are all going to get it though, surely, it is best to do all we can to postpone such an event as long as we can so the best chance is given to getting a vaccine?
Either that or to maximise chance of getting best NHS care: it would be a lot easier if we got it one at a time rather than three hundred and fifty-five extra cases in Wales in one day.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimmy the Jock
Has it... has had it …?
It would appear to have very different affects on all of us .
I couldn't guess . The test which tells us who has had it will be the way forward.
We’ll all evidence points to a maximum of 3%, let’s be more optimistic and say 5% of the country has had it and 4000 deaths already.
So if 100% of the country get it that’s a minimum of 80,000 deaths.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Croesy Blue
We’ll all evidence points to a maximum of 3%, let’s be more optimistic and say 5% of the country has had it and 4000 deaths already.
So if 100% of the country get it that’s a minimum of 80,000 deaths.
The hospital in the millennium stadium and similar all over the country tells me we haven't scratched the surface .
I don't want to be seen as doing gloom and doom , I believe my opening post is probably close to the truth .
My mind is open to there being another solution .
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Croesy Blue
We’ll all evidence points to a maximum of 3%, let’s be more optimistic and say 5% of the country has had it and 4000 deaths already.
So if 100% of the country get it that’s a minimum of 80,000 deaths.
5% of 66.5 million is 3,250,000
At that number the death rate is incomprehensible to us. It becomes a simple but horrifying statistic.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
light up the darkness
5% of 66.5 million is 3,250,000
At that number the death rate is incomprehensible to us. It becomes a simple but horrifying statistic.
I was saying if we said 5% of the country are of have been infected giving us 4000 deaths we’d get 80000 if everyone was infected if we assume a linear trend.
I know it’s much worse than that in reality.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
delmbox
But how (and this question is aimed at everybody not just you) does slowly relaxing the rules not mean a slow build up of patients again? So if we slowly relax the rules and in 8 months it's more or less back to normal then why doesn't the virus spread like wildfire again in 8 months? There's no vaccine, nothing's really changed, nowhere near enough people will have had it for effective herd immunity (assuming that 80% of the population won't have had it by then)
So how do we get back to normal before a vaccine arrives? What am I missing?
I agree. If the vast majority of people, as we are led to believe, are following the "stay at home" advice wherever possible then the percentage of folk exposed to the virus could be quite small. Then when everything looks hunky-dorey and the masses are let loose once more the whole saga could start all over again. On a positive note, viruses can only survive if there are hosts to reproduce it, so isn't it possible that the COVID-19 virus could literally have died out before this happens?
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimmy the Jock
There is no cure .
There wont be a vaccine for some time .
For the country to move forward and get back on its feet , on the whole ,we all have to get it .
Once the number of deaths drop below a certain point , restrictions will be lifted and we will start again.
The deaths are being controlled , which is of course sensible .
The hospital in the millennium stadium is a sign of things to come .
The only positive I can think about it at the moment is a lot of us have had it and aren't aware.
Anyone disagree with my interpretation of the current situation ?
Bill Gates to the rescue and the mandatory Vaccination program. Is it almost ready to be rolled out? no idea.!!!
regarding deaths being controlled, I wouldn't go with this Jimmy, I would guess like many, now having additional time
at home I have watched zillions of Youtube hours on this, some just medical stuff, some conspiracy stuff, for all the testing that
Germany has done, they haven't really flattened their curve and their curve is basically following the western European curve and the American curve, would be interesting to see the Swedish curve who have chosen to follow a different path, I would not disagree with many may have had it, and maybe their immune system has coped well with it and the illness being put down to the common flu, It's a bloody awful situation, so to answer your question do I agree or disagree?, i'm going to take the 5th!!!.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
delmbox
But how (and this question is aimed at everybody not just you) does slowly relaxing the rules not mean a slow build up of patients again? So if we slowly relax the rules and in 8 months it's more or less back to normal then why doesn't the virus spread like wildfire again in 8 months? There's no vaccine, nothing's really changed, nowhere near enough people will have had it for effective herd immunity (assuming that 80% of the population won't have had it by then)
So how do we get back to normal before a vaccine arrives? What am I missing?
Yeah it will, but that also gives the economy a bit of breathing space. It's probably hanging over us until the vaccine comes but it will be in peaks and waves, so they'll close on the way up and open on the way down.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Nelsonca61
Bill Gates to the rescue and the mandatory Vaccination program. Is it almost ready to be rolled out? no idea.!!!
regarding deaths being controlled, I wouldn't go with this Jimmy, I would guess like many, now having additional time
at home I have watched zillions of Youtube hours on this, some just medical stuff, some conspiracy stuff, for all the testing that
Germany has done, they haven't really flattened their curve and their curve is basically following the western European curve and the American curve, would be interesting to see the Swedish curve who have chosen to follow a different path, I would not disagree with many may have had it, and maybe their immune system has coped well with it and the illness being put down to the common flu, It's a bloody awful situation, so to answer your question do I agree or disagree?, i'm going to take the 5th!!!.
pardon
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
delmbox
pardon
Basically, Bill Gates will be 1st with the vaccination
Do I agree with Jimmy?, not yes, not no
Cheers.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
lardy
Yeah it will, but that also gives the economy a bit of breathing space. It's probably hanging over us until the vaccine comes but it will be in peaks and waves, so they'll close on the way up and open on the way down.
That's the only reason they will open the doors before the virus is beaten .
If we continue as is , the economy will be decimated .
My perception is we are trying to balance peoples lives with money .
If it goes past 3 months it could finish the business I have built over the last 25 years . I certainly wouldn't see that as a reason to put more peoples lives at risk.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CCFCC3PO
The most recent estimate I have seen is 2.7% of the population.
We need the anti-body test.
The vaccine will come after so called herd immunity.
I hope you are right. but latest figures as of Saturday indicates that South Wales could be a hot spot for Covid-19
In England on Saturday the health authority with most cases was Birmingham 1138 cases and a population in the authority of 1.1 m. Approx 1 cases per 1000 population
Cardiff and Vale with a population of approx 495,000 had 723 cases as of Saturday, equivalent to 1 per 684 of the population. If you include todays figures we are 1 case in approx 500....ie in a CCFC stadium of 20,000 fans 40 people would have it....
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Nelsonca61
Basically, Bill Gates will be 1st with the vaccination
Do I agree with Jimmy?, not yes, not no
Cheers.
:hehe: fair play, cheers mate
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimmy the Jock
That is quite interesting ,would you know why they started to wane , What was the turning point ?
Sorry, I don't, I've just found this article from a couple of months ago, but, clearly, things are much further developed this time.
https://www.latimes.com/california/s...china-epidemic
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
That is a very interesting piece .
The fact that SARS was only a problem from people that were very ill , so easier to detect and control.
SARS never really hit the heights expected
Coronavirus has many shapes and sizes , normally only giving the cold or flu.
The fact the Chinese are travelling more these days is also put down as a factor .
Perhaps / hopefully my assumptions are incorrect and covid 19 will just fade away .
I started the thread because its how I think things will go
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
lisvaneblue
I hope you are right. but latest figures as of Saturday indicates that South Wales could be a hot spot for Covid-19
In England on Saturday the health authority with most cases was Birmingham 1138 cases and a population in the authority of 1.1 m. Approx 1 cases per 1000 population
Cardiff and Vale with a population of approx 495,000 had 723 cases as of Saturday, equivalent to 1 per 684 of the population. If you include todays figures we are 1 case in approx 500....ie in a CCFC stadium of 20,000 fans 40 people would have it....
These are recorded cases. Example, I develop a cough. I stay home. I get better. I had covid-19. I am not counted in your figure.
Example. I have no symptoms. But, I do have covid-19. I am not counted in these figures.
There are complex models that will have a degree of accuracy in terms of number of people infected - the one I saw last week said 2.7%. I would suggest that is more accurate than the figures you are quoting. Do you really think only 1138 people in Birmingham have had it?
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimmy the Jock
That is a very interesting piece .
The fact that SARS was only a problem from people that were very ill , so easier to detect and control.
SARS never really hit the heights expected
Coronavirus has many shapes and sizes , normally only giving the cold or flu.
The fact the Chinese are travelling more these days is also put down as a factor .
Perhaps / hopefully my assumptions are incorrect and covid 19 will just fade away .
I started the thread because its how I think things will go
What are you basing that on? I mean, do you have information that suggests that, once a person develops it, they are immune for ever? Or, do you have information that suggests that, if you have one of the 40+ strains of it, you cannot get any of the others?
Perhaps you have evidence that there won't be a covid-21, or covid-24? Or, perhaps you have evidence that a vaccine is easy when, if you consider it, the other coronavirus we know is the common cold (mild, but no cure). Do you only get the common cold once? I've had it twice this year already.
There is every chance that we will have lockdowns for the next 5 years or more. I would suggest that Governments will be a lot quicker to close borders next time.
Your comment was that "we will all get it", implying we should just get out there and get it. But, even young people are dying. Is that genetic? Or is it because they were infected with more of the virus than other people?
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CCFCC3PO
There is every chance that we will have lockdowns for the next 5 years or more.
This is mere speculation, it’s scaremongering and it’s not helpful in my opinion.
You have no evidence whatsoever to suggest that will be the case.
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Re: Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CCFCC3PO
What are you basing that on? I mean, do you have information that suggests that, once a person develops it, they are immune for ever? Or, do you have information that suggests that, if you have one of the 40+ strains of it, you cannot get any of the others?
Perhaps you have evidence that there won't be a covid-21, or covid-24? Or, perhaps you have evidence that a vaccine is easy when, if you consider it, the other coronavirus we know is the common cold (mild, but no cure). Do you only get the common cold once? I've had it twice this year already.
There is every chance that we will have lockdowns for the next 5 years or more. I would suggest that Governments will be a lot quicker to close borders next time.
Your comment was that "we will all get it", implying we should just get out there and get it. But, even young people are dying. Is that genetic? Or is it because they were infected with more of the virus than other people?
What am I basing what on ?
The general consensus is , once you have had it you are clear , do you have evidence other wise ?
What are you basing your 5 year lock downs on ?
I haven't implied anything of the sort .
Most of your comments on here are just a jumble of words or your perception of my comments .
You didn't like my cycle , that's fine I have accepted my actions weren't in line with the current rules.
I ignored your comments about where have I been .
I have been getting up ridiculously early and delivering , food , sanitiser , whatever needs delivering and going to bed ridiculously late . Not because I am a saint , because that what I do . Despite the dangers we carried on.
My two children have been doing the same putting all of us at risk .
I closed my business on Friday to everyone bar myself , so I will continue to work as and when needed
I will probably have a little more time to make sure I don't miss any of the rules , and I fully understand the rules are not for my interpretation .
It would probably be better you engage with others .from here on in .