An alternative view.

The phrases "finding a way to win" and "winning ugly" seem to have been applied to Cardiff City an awful lot this season. The ability to win when not playing well has to be a good thing and, after the Forest game, the conversation reflected this - yet again, we had not impressed, but we have something which enables us to come out on top in these tight, toughly contested matches.

We won eight consecutive matches not long ago, but how many of them did you think we played well in? That run bemused me because we looked so poor at times and yet we kept on "finding a way to win".

There is an alternative explanation of course, we have just been very lucky in many of our matches and the results have not reflected the true nature of the games.

In fact, if you look at things in terms of performance and not results, it seems to me that an argument can be made for saying that the squad we have now have been under achieving for the last three months or so.

Now I must emphasise that I do not fully support the conclusions I've outlined here by any means - we have not had the season we have done purely because we have been lucky, but, on the other hand, I do believe that our general level of performance has been pretty ordinary when compared with the first ten games or so this time around and many of our displays after Neil Warnock took over last season.

I'm just putting something out here for a, hopefuily, civilised discussion about our squad and how they have performed in recent months.

As always. Paul, you make sound arguments. I think the best/most you can say of our style is that it's been effective but I have sympathy with those that the way we have played, over the majority of the season, pretty ugly stuff. So different to the opening three games of the season, games that left me with the impression we could give anyone a game.

If we eventually do get promoted there is going to have to be a lot of surgery amongst the playing staff and a hard look at the manager himself. He has said he doesn't like managing in the Premier League but it would take some real balls to look elsewhere after the job he has done this season. He seems to have great respect for his two assistants and obviously they have years of experience behind them but perhaps we could do with some younger blood with fresher ideas.

Unless some serious changes are made I can see us staying in the Premier League no longer than we did last time.

I think this is more than a valid point to Make Paul, in fact I have just been saying something similar to my nephew.

We were absolutely awesome in the opening month or so playing open attractive football that was a joy to watch, the Villa home game has to be one of the best all round displays that I have ever seen us produce. We were always going to find to hard to maintain that level of performance for 9 months, however our team spirit has enabled us to have a great knack of being able to grind out results when required most in the main.

However, to my mind, ever since our gaffer won his manager of the season accolade he has become very negative with his team tactics and some of his team selections in that time are debatable to say the least. The wolves game in particular frustrated me when we lined up I felt our formation was more to negate them (particularly their wing backs) than playing to our strengths and going for it with our great home form let them worry about us as we were closing in on them at the time.

Since that game we have really lost our momentum and to me it's as if the players and management have lost a bit of self confidence, not helped by Fulham's relentless run of results.

All we can hope for is that our knack of grinding out results when most needed is still within our management and players alike.

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Originally Posted by Seabird

As always. Paul, you make sound arguments. I think the best/most you can say of our style is that it's been effective but I have sympathy with those that the way we have played, over the majority of the season, pretty ugly stuff. So different to the opening three games of the season, games that left me with the impression we could give anyone a game.

If we eventually do get promoted there is going to have to be a lot of surgery amongst the playing staff and a hard look at the manager himself. He has said he doesn't like managing in the Premier League but it would take some real balls to look elsewhere after the job he has done this season. He seems to have great respect for his two assistants and obviously they have years of experience behind them but perhaps we could do with some younger blood with fresher ideas.

Unless some serious changes are made I can see us staying in the Premier League no longer than we did last time.

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Agreed.

Warnock has been a master at getting an average group of players to get results. I suppose that's what a manager is expected to do but Warnock is better than most.

If we get promoted under Warnock I'd be surprised if he lasts the season. Then we'll bring in another manager with a different approach to the game to see us rebuild in the Championship for a few more seasons. Warnock's eventual replacement will have some job to do.

We've got too many points to be purely lucky but clearly we've had the rub of the green at times. Having said that, we've had absolutely zero luck against Wolves and Villa, we should have had a nailed on pen last night and we've got that disallowed goal vs Millwall. We should be home and hosed by now but we're not.

We've been playing OK all season and our defence has bailed us out but it's starting to creak now. One clean sheet in eight is not promotion form and that's my biggest worry. Bamba is making a major mistake a game at the moment as well, which isn't exactly ideal!

Now isn't the time to make major changes despite the fact I thought Warnock got it wrong last night, with Hoilett as a number 10/striker. Play him on the left and I'd play Grujic against Hull. For their goalscoring ability, Hull still can't defend and we can get at them with our pace on the flanks and up top.

How anyone can come on here and criticise Neil Warnock and talk about getting rid of him next season is totally beyond me. For what he has achieved this season he deserves the Freedom of the City and at least having a full years crack at the Premier League. Even if we did get relegated then, he would deserve another go at the Championship the year after. We have achieved what we have this year with a miniscule budget and no one foresaw us being in the play offs, let alone second with two games to go. Give him £40-50m to spend and I dare say he would build a team able to play open, attractive, attacking football but our net spend this year is something like £6m. Its a bloody miracle we are in the top ten with that budget.

For me, we are an average in ability squad who have performed consistently by playing to our strengths and have been exceptionally well organised and motivated. It has gone a little wrong recently but I genuinely believe that this current squad are more than capable of beating Hull and Reading.
As others have said what happens next year is of concern as I would say few of this current squad are capable of performing consistently at Premiership level and Warnock's record at the top table is as poor as his record at this level is outstanding.
Obviously , I would hope that I am horribly wrong in my assessment and that the squad and management team make me eat my words.

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Originally Posted by dml1954

How anyone can come on here and criticise Neil Warnock and talk about getting rid of him next season is totally beyond me. For what he has achieved this season he deserves the Freedom of the City and at least having a full years crack at the Premier League. Even if we did get relegated then, he would deserve another go at the Championship the year after. We have achieved what we have this year with a miniscule budget and no one foresaw us being in the play offs, let alone second with two games to go. Give him £40-50m to spend and I dare say he would build a team able to play open, attractive, attacking football but our net spend this year is something like £6m. Its a bloody miracle we are in the top ten with that budget.

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Think how many Tomlins and Madines he could buy with £40m.

Heads down stalker alert.😂

Paul I think we simply out performing our real position , and other stronger /better squads s under performed , with our workman type squad with a smattering of half decent pacey forwards , we were always in with a shout of the play offs , we have just overachieved and we are now limping to the line .

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Originally Posted by Majorblue

For me, we are an average in ability squad who have performed consistently by playing to our strengths and have been exceptionally well organised and motivated. It has gone a little wrong recently but I genuinely believe that this current squad are more than capable of beating Hull and Reading.
As others have said what happens next year is of concern as I would say few of this current squad are capable of performing consistently at Premiership level and Warnock's record at the top table is as poor as his record at this level is outstanding.
Obviously , I would hope that I am horribly wrong in my assessment and that the squad and management team make me eat my words.

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That’s very harsh on his premier record. He’s had what- 1 and a bit seasons? Shef United got relegated with highest points total ever in the tevez year- would normally get about 12th with 44 points. And QPR were never in bottom 3 under him.

Ok not an amazing record but not awful by any means.

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

That’s very harsh on his premier record. He’s had what- 1 and a bit seasons? Shef United got relegated with highest points total ever in the tevez year- would normally get about 12th with 44 points. And QPR were never in bottom 3 under him.

Ok not an amazing record but not awful by any means.

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He got relegated with Notts County in '92 after two successive promotions had got them to the top division.

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Originally Posted by Loramski

He got relegated with Notts County in '92 after two successive promotions had got them to the top division.

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Pre premier league. Anything that happened before 1992/93 season doesn’t count. ;-)

I think the likelihood is The Championship next season and a rebuilding job in the summer.

Weve got the best man for the job for the budget we have.

If we go up he deserves the full season and full backing.

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

Pre premier league. Anything that happened before 1992/93 season doesn’t count. ;-)

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Sorry, my mistake. They were in the First Division in 91/92 and were still in the First Division in 92/93 so it doesn't count as a relegation anyway.

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Originally Posted by Loramski

Sorry, my mistake. They were in the First Division in 91/92 and were still in the First Division in 92/93 so it doesn't count as a relegation anyway.

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Yep I think you are right. Lol.

The same was being said of Reading last season. We finished third and as a fanbase we joked that it was a false third. In truth we edged a lot of games that could easily have gone the other way.
With Cardiff I have thought that you were a physically very fit side that was able to keep going for 90 minutes and score late goals and pick up the points.
We also won the Championship in 2012/13 with a team similar to the current Cardiff side. There were better footballing teams than us but we had streetwise players and pipped West Ham and Southampton to the title.

Yet last night the reverse happened to Cardiff running out of steam. Not sure why it all went to pot. However it’s all about getting over the finishing line now. Yes Fulham play prettier football but so what? It’s points on the board that matters. By hook or crook you need to win the next two.

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Originally Posted by Pearcey3

The same was being said of Reading last season. We finished third and as a fanbase we joked that it was a false third. In truth we edged a lot of games that could easily have gone the other way.
With Cardiff I have thought that you were a physically very fit side that was able to keep going for 90 minutes and score late goals and pick up the points.
We also won the Championship in 2012/13 with a team similar to the current Cardiff side. There were better footballing teams than us but we had streetwise players and pipped West Ham and Southampton to the title.

Yet last night the reverse happened to Cardiff running out of steam. Not sure why it all went to pot. However it’s all about getting over the finishing line now. Yes Fulham play prettier football but so what? It’s points on the board that matters. By hook or crook you need to win the next two.

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If we can recover in time im confident we can reverse last nights result and get our revenge over Derby then take out an under pressure Villa in the final.

Weve 2 shots at this.

I think it depends what weve got left and if we can recover if we miss out on autos.

This chase right to the end is going to knacker us. You had Huddersfield who were already in play off preparation when we played and hammered them last game. No rest or prep for us we will be straight into it.

Villa and Boro will be concentrating on the play offs after Saturday.

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Originally Posted by Hilts

If we can recover in time im confident we can reverse last nights result and get our revenge over Derby then take out an under pressure Villa in the final.

Weve 2 shots at this.

I think it depends what weve got left and if we can recover if we miss out on autos.

This chase right to the end is going to knacker us. You had Huddersfield who were already in play off preparation when we played and hammered them last game. No rest or prep for us we will be straight into it.

Villa and Boro will be concentrating on the play offs after Saturday.

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I’m afraid this is the problem. I was talking about this with a mate who supports West Ham. We both agreed that Villa and Boro may well rest players the weekend after next whilst Cardiff and Fulham will be going full out to win promotion. It’s far from ideal. You would also go into the play offs on a downer. Just sort it out in the next two games.

We're 2nd after 44 games. That's a hell of a lot of luck. We've defended very well all season. And the whole team has worked very hard. I think it's a disservice to the squad and management to try to oversimplify a few tough results.

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Originally Posted by NYCBlue

We're 2nd after 44 games. That's a hell of a lot of luck. We've defended very well all season. And the whole team has worked very hard. I think it's a disservice to the squad and management to try to oversimplify a few tough results.

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Luck plays a massive part in sport. No doubt we’ve had lots of luck so far.

However if we want to talk about luck we could talk about how none of those efforts went in v villa. We could talk about those 2 penalties v wolves. We could talk about that absolutely unbelievable handball last night that even their manager said was a definite pen. We could talk about bambas goal at milwall when the ref blew as he saw the ball going into the net after bamba had kicked it.

We’ve had lots go against us as well recently.

These things even themselves out over the season

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Originally Posted by NYCBlue

We're 2nd after 44 games. That's a hell of a lot of luck. We've defended very well all season. And the whole team has worked very hard. I think it's a disservice to the squad and management to try to oversimplify a few tough results.

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Agreed, very disrespectful to what this squad and manager have achieved to put it down to luck

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Originally Posted by City123

Agreed, very disrespectful to what this squad and manager have achieved to put it down to luck

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I'm not sure anyone is are they? I mentioned the possibility that it might be, but then dismissed it by saying you cannot put the season we have had completely down to luck. My main point was more to do with a feeling that, far from having an over performing squad built on meagre resources as is often suggested, we now have a deep squad which should be performing, as opposed to getting results, better than they are. When you look at so many of our performances from September onwards, that seems a reasonable question to ask.