EU Referendum predictions
Right then. I reckon Remain to sneak it winning by 52% to 48% with a high turnout of 73%
Re: EU Referendum predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Pearcey3
Right then. I reckon Remain to sneak it winning by 52% to 48% with a high turnout of 73%
Leave 51-49. Turnout 75%
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Remain 62%
Leave 38%
Turnout. 70%
Wasted opportunity
Re: EU Referendum predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Pearcey3
Right then. I reckon Remain to sneak it winning by 52% to 48% with a high turnout of 73%
I think that's roughly how it'll pan out as well, a very narrow Remain win.
That'll leave a very high percentage of pissed off politicians and voters and this ridiculous referendum will become a "neverendum."
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Hopefully common sense will prevail, and we won't be seeing this again
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Remain 46-54 Leave. Hope im wrong.
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probably get lambasted for saying it but i think the death of the MP swings it to remain, sad i know but i think its a huge moment in a horrible campaign
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Remain to win by a few votes, less than 500 margin. Turnout would be higher than usual
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And, judging by the way the campaign has gone, we'll probably get multiple legal challenges to the result from the losing side.
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I have a feeling leave will just nick it (I want to remain)
I think the best outcome would be a marginal remain win that puts pressure on the EU.
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Leave to have more votes.
Remain declared the winner
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http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...bership-result
If the bookies are correct we will remain.
I hope they are wrong.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimmy the Jock
I'm a remainer. Although nearly every one else I know is a leaver. Strange how the bookies got it like this.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jonny London
I'm a remainer. Although nearly every one else I know is a leaver. Strange how the bookies got it like this.
Depends where you live, who you know etc. I live in London and the majority are voting remain whilst the people I know back in Wales the majority want to leave. Which to me seems strange as Wales benefits more from the EU than London.
The bbc had an article (that I can't find) that said who is more likely to vote which way, under 30 more likely remain over 30 leave, university leavers more likely remain etc.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
adz-a32
Remain to win by a few votes, less than 500 margin. Turnout would be higher than usual
Less than 500 when about 20m are voting? It will be close, but your scenario gives one side 50.000125% and the other 49.999875%
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
goslow
Leave to have more votes.
Remain declared the winner
How does that work?
Re: EU Referendum predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Badly Ironed Shirt
Less than 500 when about 20m are voting? It will be close, but your scenario gives one side 50.000125% and the other 49.999875%
I actually believe that its gonna be that close and every single vote would make a difference
Re: EU Referendum predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
adz-a32
I actually believe that its gonna be that close and every single vote would make a difference
If it is that close then we won't know the result for months or years, in my opinion.
Re: EU Referendum predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ninianclark
It doesnt matter, Ive talked to people who are young and want to leave and Ive spoken to OAPs who want to remain and vice versa. Not easy to pigeon hole people.
No ones pigeon holing there are other factors that come into it too, age, wealth, where you live, job, age, education.
It doesn't mean they'll definitely vote that way but there will be a pattern as with every election.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jimmy the Jock
For my part I hope the bookies are right! However surely bookie's odds are only a bi-product of TOTAL VALUE of bets made? I gather the bookies admit to having received more bets to leave but as the amounts gambled are much higher for the fewer (and higher stakes) in the remain camp, that dramatically affects the odds. If you want to keep us in, dont waste the vote next Thursday.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
ninianclark
That was my point - you cannot stereotype in this referendum. And unlike general elections - every vote is equal and valid. General Elections are usually one or lost in the key marginals of middle england.
Yep. Every vote does count here. It doesn't in a General Election.
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The result will be a narrow REMAIN win with a turnout of 65%. Within a month the EU will come forward with their ridiculous rules to limit vacuum cleaner power as well as a large bill to help pay for the euro and migration crisis and Greece's bailout. We will be liable for the latter as we were for the last bailout despite the assurances obtained.
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Remin to win about 66 - 34
however as someone said, whatever result has be be ratified by Parliament and a vote there made to begin or not begin extraction.