Points required for survival - stat time

A few months ago most of us were safely predicting an all-time low points tally for survival this season given how poorly many teams at the bottom were doing. With Huddersfield in dire straights and Fulham not much better, it's starting to look like there's a race to avoid being the other team in the bottom 3.

However, thoughts of a low points tally might have been a bit premature. I did some research a few months ago suggesting that teams who had relatively low points totals in the first few months usually improved.

Here's a table showing the average number of points for the team in 18th at the end of each month of this season (with points average):

August 0.33
September 0.29
October 0.5
November 0.69
December 0.75
January 0.79
Current 0.92

Given this has steadily risen during the season we might not be looking at such a low total needed for survival after all. The current points average projected after 38 games means 35 points might be the cutoff point. The average is 36. It's not inconceivable that the team in 18th will end up averaging a point a game if the trend continues. That means 38 points (maybe 39) needed for survival. That becomes one of the higher points totals required to stay up (only 5 times in 23 season has more than 38 points been needed).

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

A few months ago most of us were safely predicting an all-time low points tally for survival this season given how poorly many teams at the bottom were doing. With Huddersfield in dire straights and Fulham not much better, it's starting to look like there's a race to avoid being the other team in the bottom 3.

However, thoughts of a low points tally might have been a bit premature. I did some research a few months ago suggesting that teams who had relatively low points totals in the first few months usually improved.

Here's a table showing the average number of points for the team in 18th at the end of each month of this season (with points average):

August 0.33
September 0.29
October 0.5
November 0.69
December 0.75
January 0.79
Current 0.92

Given this has steadily risen during the season we might not be looking at such a low total needed for survival after all. The current points average projected after 38 games means 35 points might be the cutoff point. The average is 36. It's not inconceivable that the team in 18th will end up averaging a point a game if the trend continues. That means 38 points (maybe 39) needed for survival. That becomes one of the higher points totals required to stay up (only 5 times in 23 season has more than 38 points been needed).

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What's the highest ever to go down Eric?

The bottom 2 could easily have a very low average, but it’s that 18th place which could be high - the likes of Southampton and Newcastle have good run ins meaning the total needed could be around the traditional 40 point mark

it's not the 18th points tally that counts..it's the 17th

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Originally Posted by kendoddsdadsdogsdead

it's not the 18th points tally that counts..it's the 17th

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I'll disagree. As long as you've got a better goal difference than the team in 18th you're fine. Otherwise 1 point more will suffice.

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

What's the highest ever to go down Eric?

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In a 38 game season since the formation of the Premier League, 42 points has been the highest, won by West Ham in 2002/03. We went up that season and played them in the league again for the first time in 23 seasons. I recall a cracker of a League cup tie at Ninian Park, billed as a battle of Earnshaw vs Defoe. We were cruising until West Ham were awarded a penalty that never was. Earnie scored 2, Defoe got a hat-trick.

Isn't it the case that City had 15 points at the halfway stage (having played 19 games) and were just above the bottom three - and after another 7 games 10 more points (two thirds of the 15) have been garnered and we are in a similar position?

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Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie

Isn't it the case that City had 15 points at the halfway stage (having played 19 games) and were just above the bottom three - and after another 7 games 10 more points (two thirds of the 15) have been garnered and we are in a similar position?

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Absolutely.

After 19 games we averaged 0.79 points and were 3 points above the drop zone.

Over the last 7 games we've averaged 1.43 points a game and are only 1 point above the drop zone. Thats not far off double our points average from the first half of the season, only to be closer to the relegation zone in terms of points.

This might be of interest - a league table based on the last 8 games (taken from a stat website).

1 Manchester Utd 8 7 1 0 18 5 +13 22
2 Manchester City 8 7 0 1 23 5 +18 21
3 Tottenham 8 6 0 2 17 7 +10 18
4 Liverpool 8 5 2 1 20 8 +12 17
5 Burnley 8 4 3 1 13 11 +2 15
6 Wolverhampton 8 4 1 3 14 13 +1 13
7 Arsenal 8 4 1 3 13 13 0 13
8 Chelsea 8 4 1 3 10 14 -4 13
9 Cardiff City 8 3 2 3 6 9 -3 11
10 Watford 8 2 4 2 9 9 0 10
11 Crystal Palace 8 2 3 3 10 9 +1 9
12 Southampton 8 2 3 3 9 11 -2 9
13 West Ham Utd 8 2 3 3 7 12 -5 9
14 Newcastle Utd 8 2 2 4 7 11 -4 8
15 Leicester City 8 2 1 5 9 13 -4 7
16 Fulham 8 2 1 5 9 16 -7 7
17 Bournemouth 8 2 1 5 10 19 -9 7
18 Brighton & Hove 8 1 3 4 8 13 -5 6
19 Everton 8 2 0 6 5 10 -5 6
20 Huddersfield 8 0 1 7 3 17 -14 1

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Absolutely.

After 19 games we averaged 0.79 points and were 3 points above the drop zone.

Over the last 7 games we've averaged 1.43 points a game and are only 1 point above the drop zone. Thats not far off double our points average from the first half of the season, only to be closer to the relegation zone in terms of points.

This might be of interest - a league table based on the last 8 games (taken from a stat website).

1 Manchester Utd 8 7 1 0 18 5 +13 22
2 Manchester City 8 7 0 1 23 5 +18 21
3 Tottenham 8 6 0 2 17 7 +10 18
4 Liverpool 8 5 2 1 20 8 +12 17
5 Burnley 8 4 3 1 13 11 +2 15
6 Wolverhampton 8 4 1 3 14 13 +1 13
7 Arsenal 8 4 1 3 13 13 0 13
8 Chelsea 8 4 1 3 10 14 -4 13
9 Cardiff City 8 3 2 3 6 9 -3 11
10 Watford 8 2 4 2 9 9 0 10
11 Crystal Palace 8 2 3 3 10 9 +1 9
12 Southampton 8 2 3 3 9 11 -2 9
13 West Ham Utd 8 2 3 3 7 12 -5 9
14 Newcastle Utd 8 2 2 4 7 11 -4 8
15 Leicester City 8 2 1 5 9 13 -4 7
16 Fulham 8 2 1 5 9 16 -7 7
17 Bournemouth 8 2 1 5 10 19 -9 7
18 Brighton & Hove 8 1 3 4 8 13 -5 6
19 Everton 8 2 0 6 5 10 -5 6
20 Huddersfield 8 0 1 7 3 17 -14 1

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Also worth remembering we only got 30 points last time we were in this league. Anything better than that would be better than most of us expected.

Frustratingly just 4 more points would have been enough to stay up that year. Felt like we were miles and miles off but we weren't.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

Also worth remembering we only got 30 points last time we were in this league. Anything better than that would be better than most of us expected.

Frustratingly just 4 more points would have been enough to stay up that year. Felt like we were miles and miles off but we weren't.

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We needed 7 more that year. We were miles off, because we were garbage and not a team.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie

Isn't it the case that City had 15 points at the halfway stage (having played 19 games) and were just above the bottom three - and after another 7 games 10 more points (two thirds of the 15) have been garnered and we are in a similar position?

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Burnely have a tough run in, we could do without them picking up too many more points in the next few games.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

Also worth remembering we only got 30 points last time we were in this league. Anything better than that would be better than most of us expected.

Frustratingly just 4 more points would have been enough to stay up that year. Felt like we were miles and miles off but we weren't.

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No, it wouldn't have. team in 17th had 36 and -16 gd, ours was -42