Celtic union

Suspend disbelief for a moment and imagine the following scenario.
Following an ultra hard Brexit, with Irish border issues, remain leaning Scotland and northern Ireland leave the UK and enter into another loose union with Ireland, to make use of their EU membership. Let's call it the Celtic Federation.

The Celtic Federation extends an invitation to Wales to join, and there's a referendum in Wales on whether to

A) remain in Britain- which is now basically England and Wales, out of the EU.

B) join the Celtic Federation, in the EU, Schengen, uses the euro

To me it would definitely be option B.

Wales has been in Union with England for almost 500 years, and for the entire time has been a poor relation. England would become increasingly beholden to the city of London, and I think development outside of the M25 would become even rarer than it is today.

Wales would be 20% of the population of the Celtic Federation, so able to have much more influence on policy, with Scotland being 35%, Ireland similar and northern Ireland 10% there's a nice balance between the nation's, without any one holding all the power.

Whereas we would only be 5% to England's 95% and become very marginalized.

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Originally Posted by ninianclark

The Irish economy is mainly beholden to the UK in terms of exports. Scotland made a case for independence based on the price of oil - it dropped by 50% in recent years , they would be bankrupt by now or destitute. Wales spends more than it gets in terms of GDP growth. I dont know about N Ireland - but I guess it wouldnt be able to keep it's standard of living - without cutting spending or raising taxes.

This is where stupid nationalism gets you it seems - worse off - but hey at least you'd be independent? , unless you dont count Brussels. Wales would be getting handouts, have to abide by all EU laws and standards regardless, and no matter who you voted for - it would make a difference. (you could argue we that with Westminister now)

People in the North think like you, people in Cornwall think like you and people in South East could argue they'd happily kick everyone out unless they lived within the M25.

Which is why (IMO) be better off (given your scenario) with England and Wales - than some sort of pseudo EU member - none of the benefits and all of the restrictions.

I really have to concentrate on my work from here on in.:hehe:

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I'm not sure what you mean by getting none of the benefits of the EU but all of the restrictions - we would be a full member of the EU, we would get all of the benefits.

It will all be fine , trust in the actions of the 51.9% who voted out ,they know its going to be hunky dory , if it does go badly we could always go and live on Mars .

Doesn't England effectively subsidise Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland? If so, England would be the major beneficiary of such a split.

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Originally Posted by ninianclark

Yes that is true, as with Scotland - yes you can be independent - but likely you'll be worse off. Should that be a factor when deciding you want to be fully independent with a sovereign parliament ?

You could argue possibly - we provide cheaper Labour - but what we claim back in Health, Welfare, Education,Pensions, Benefits etc outweighs what we put in.

You wouldnt be an independent Wales though - you would still be beholden to Brussels in terms of EU law being sovereign.

So still option 1 for me, or preferably all the UK nations as 1 please.

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I think devolution was that dream,we would be a very poor place without Ingerland ,we need to cheer them on in the world cup in case they set us free ,if i was in Westminster Tory I'd have got rid of us years ago ,they cannot win in our eyes, lol

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Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie

Doesn't England effectively subsidise Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland? If so, England would be the major beneficiary of such a split.

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Wales Scotland and Ireland do get more money than England per capita, largely because on the whole they are poorer nations than England, so have more demand on public services, and with an older demographic because more young people leave to get work.

It's true that in these day to day expenses the Celtic nations get more, but in terms of investment in infrastructure, that would actually improve the economies England and specifically the south east gets it all.
I don't have any great desire for Welsh independence, but to me the fact that Wales is still the poorest part of the uk, isn't a reason to stay with England.

If they had spent a proportionate amount in Wales developing the economy as they do in London then chances are we wouldn't need as much money to spend on welfare.

Many times in this thread, 'England' needs to be replaced by 'London'.

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Originally Posted by ninianclark

I used to like it as it was, Great Britain a united kingdom of 4 nations, that were unique all had individual traits united by a common language, a single currency. Ever since Tony Blair introduced nationalism aka Welsh Assembly , Scottish Parliament, Northern Ireland Assembly - all we seem to have had - petty infighting between the establishments. Boring, Pathetic, time wasting and ultimately useless waste of space.

Imagine for a moment the boot was on the other foot , Wales had a massive economy, and all the wealth - how would be treat out English neighbours and friends ?

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Great Britain is made up of just three entities.

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Originally Posted by ninianclark

Im sure you could work out what I meant :sherlock:

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I got it 😉

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Originally Posted by ninianclark

Rep of Ireland cant freely trade with countries outside the EU - so previously agreed tariffs would have to be applied - making it a nil gain. Ireland isnt in Schengen, countries outside the EU cant use the Euro as their currency (well not officially anyway). So Wales would have to go for an independent referendum but Westminster Parliament is sovereign so the WAG just cant decide to say we want a referendum to leave the UK, just like Scotland couldnt.

Personally I want the UK to remain just that - England, Scotland, N Irleand & Wales. But given your scenario - I would edge on the side of remaining in the UK (England & Wales). Wales lives beyond its means in terms of GDP production etc.

I'd far rather be in bed with a Westminster Parliament where at least we would have a decent representation rather than a watered down and meaningless voice in the EU parliament - with an unelected commission that just issues diktats that must be implemented.

ps - If you want to join the Euro - you are stark raving mad in my opinion.

So option A - just about, given the other option

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Since when were the Irish unable to trade with countries outside the EU? they can, they do, and they are phenomenally successful doing so.

I'd join the Euro tomorrow btw, Sterling is weak, unstable and most lightly destined for a full on, coming soon crash.

Where do you start with garbage like this, do you ever get tired of clinging on to mother Englands trouser leg? Ireland is not beholden to the UK for exports, your currency has crashed, hence your purchasing power has crashed, markets elsewhere are far more lucrative for Irish business to pursue than yours.

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Originally Posted by Pilkers

Where do you start with garbage like this, do you ever get tired of clinging on to mother Englands trouser leg? Ireland is not beholden to the UK for exports, your currency has crashed, hence your purchasing power has crashed, markets elsewhere are far more lucrative for Irish business to pursue than yours.

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Wasn't Ireland bailed in the recent recesion , and wasnt a fair bit of that bail out money from the values other member states had put in including England ,Wales and Scotland and didnt the bank of England and the financial institutions centred in London also help ,somone was beholdent, and it showed how weak the structure was ?

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Originally Posted by life on mars

Wasn't Ireland bailed in the recent recesion , and wasnt a fair bit of that bail out money from the values other member states had put in including England ,Wales and Scotland and didnt the bank of England and the financial institutions centred in London also help ,somone was beholdent, and it showed how weak the structure was ?

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England set a precedent for IMF bailouts around these islands in the 70's, and it could and should have been a whole lot worse, luckily North sea oil and gas came on tap in the nick of time rescuing them from a long and protracted economic depression with further recourse to external bailout.

As for Ireland not sure who bailed who out tbh. Brian Lenihan committed to honour all debts in the banking sector, including the full redemption of all it's unsecured bondholders, the bill for this rang in at around 60 billion. Absolutely crazy times, as subsequently the Irish tax payer picked up the tab to bail out financial institutions across the globe who should have taken a hit. Incidentally many of the financiers that benefited were city of London based, the whole clusterfuk of 10 years ago was far from a charitable donation to help a neighbour. More an act of self interest to protect the balance sheet of many of your own banks and financiers.