Points per game

Having a look at the average points a team in 17th gets, and 38 was the average for the last 10 seasons. The highest being 40 and lowest 35.

So we really want to be averaging a point a game over the course of the season.
We are averaging well below that at the moment (0.73), and aren't in the relegation spots - however, history tells us, that at some point, some of the sides down there will start to pick up points more quickly if it is going to end up similarly to any of the last 10 seasons. Hopefully it can be us!

Attachment 2768

Heres a graph I've just made showing our points per game this season (blue line) as it progresses
Compared with the points per game for the 2013/14 season where we finished rock bottom on 35 points.
The horizontal lines are where we want to be above at the end of the season if we want to be in with a good chance of staying up.

In 2013 you can see our strong start, then us gradually declining until we brought in Ole and hastened the decline.
We've had a pretty bad start in comparison, but are now only 3 points behind where we were last time, hopefully we pass that soon and stay well above it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rjk

Having a look at the average points a team in 17th gets, and 38 was the average for the last 10 seasons. The highest being 40 and lowest 35.

So we really want to be averaging a point a game over the course of the season.
We are averaging well below that at the moment (0.73), and aren't in the relegation spots - however, history tells us, that at some point, some of the sides down there will start to pick up points more quickly if it is going to end up similarly to any of the last 10 seasons. Hopefully it can be us!

Attachment 2768

Heres a graph I've just made showing our points per game this season (blue line) as it progresses
Compared with the points per game for the 2013/14 season where we finished rock bottom on 35 points.
The horizontal lines are where we want to be above at the end of the season if we want to be in with a good chance of staying up.

In 2013 you can see our strong start, then us gradually declining until we brought in Ole and hastened the decline.
We've had a pretty bad start in comparison, but are now only 3 points behind where we were last time, hopefully we pass that soon and stay well above it.

---

Good work. I'll make a suggestion that 1 point above 18th is a more accurate measurement of survival than points won by the team finishing 17th, which gives an average of around 36.5 points.

There have been 4 occasions since the Premier League was reduced to 20 teams where 40+ points meant survival. It's been 34 points on 9 occasions and only once has it been lower.

One interesting stat (possibly) is that there's little correlation between the number of teams averaging less than a point a game at this point in the season and averaging less than a point a game at the end of the season. More often than not, there are more teams averaging less than a point a game now than at the end, yet that's not always the case. Unless Newcastle win at Everton, we're looking at a record number of teams at this stage of the season averaging less than a point a game. However, it seems that whenever there's a larger number of teams averaging less than a point a game at this stage, more teams turn that around over the remainder of the season. It suggests some teams that are currently struggling will find more form. If we're not one of them we are likely to be cut adrift.

Someone is going to stay up on less than 34 points this season for sure. I'll be shocked if not.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Der Kaiser

Someone is going to stay up on less than 34 points this season for sure. I'll be shocked if not.

---

It could happen for the 2nd time.

If (and yes it's pointless thinking things like this) we had beaten Burnley at the CCS, we would be just about on the right track, so margins are very tight.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rjk

If (and yes it's pointless thinking things like this) we had beaten Burnley at the CCS, we would be just about on the right track, so margins are very tight.

---

I've thought exactly the same. We'd have more of a gap between them as well, saying the bleeding obvious!!

We can say that relegation is "earned" over the course of a season with lots of ifs, buts and maybes. I think it's usually down to a few results against teams in a similar position and being savvy enough at enough times in the season.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

It could happen for the 2nd time.

---

This has to be the worst crop of bottom teams ever in the premier league ? Truly terrible bunch. Premier league might actually have a proper relegation dog fight come april.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Der Kaiser

This has to be the worst crop of bottom teams ever in the premier league ? Truly terrible bunch. Premier league might actually have a proper relegation dog fight come april.

---

I don't buy this argument. There's just a much larger gap between the haves and the have nots, look at tonight, West Ham had Fabianski, Diop, Felipe Anderson, Hernande and Arnautovic, as well Perez, Obiang and even Carroll on the bench

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by City123

I don't buy this argument. There's just a much larger gap between the haves and the have nots, look at tonight, West Ham had Fabianski, Diop, Felipe Anderson, Hernande and Arnautovic, as well Perez, Obiang and even Carroll on the bench

---

Maybe, but the fact remains the same, the bottom 7 are still truly god awful, that's alot of teams, and we're the only ones doing it on a paupers budget... so the others have all got some quality to some extent. The bottom 7, as of 15 games in, is unbelievably terrible.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Der Kaiser

Maybe, but the fact remains the same, the bottom 7 are still truly god awful, that's alot of teams, and we're the only ones doing it on a paupers budget... so the others have all got some quality to some extent. The bottom 7, as of 15 games in, is unbelievably terrible.

---

There are pockets of quality in there though so you would expect a few of those sides to have a good run at some point in the season

Newcastle about to be bought out too by the sounds of it. Consortium headed by ex Man U and Chelsea Peter Kenyon.

The reality is that City only have another 69 points to play for.

To survive City will need probably 25-27.

That is one tough ask.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cretin Hop

The reality is that City only have another 69 points to play for.

To survive City will need probably 25-27.

That is one tough ask.

---

It is tough. I have made my peace with the fact that we are probably going down and am just going to enjoy the season whatever happens.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cretin Hop

The reality is that City only have another 69 points to play for.

To survive City will need probably 25-27.

That is one tough ask.

---

If you discount playing the top 6, that then becomes needing 25 points from 51. Tall order, not impossible by any means, especially with the transfer window looming. Whatever will be, will be this season.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cretin Hop

The reality is that City only have another 69 points to play for.

To survive City will need probably 25-27.

That is one tough ask.

---

Its tough as we'll probably have to take 24 of them from home games

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ken smith

Its tough as we'll probably have to take 24 of them from home games

---

:hehe: Probably not far off that if we keep up our away form!!

That begs another question. 23 games left, 11 are at home. If our form against the top 6 continues (defeats), we can discount 4 home games against Spurs, Everton, Chelsea and Liverpool. That's then requiring 24 points from the remaining 7 home games. That's quite a challenge for obvious reasons, so we will need to pick up a result or two against the big boys and get a win or two on the road.

Attachment 2773

Update after today's game.

Still averaging a points per game that would get us relegated in most seasons, but we seem to be moving in the right direction after a bad start.

If we can pick up 4 points from the next 3 games then we will have exactly the same number of points at the same point in the season as when we sacked Malky Mckay.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ken smith

Its tough as we'll probably have to take 24 of them from home games

---

3 next week at Watford who appear to be struggling would be a good start. The rest of December and jan look tough with only hudds at home looking the easiest. We have to pick up some points somewhere else during this time, Leicester or palace away maybe

Attachment 2808

Latest update.

This is the first time this season we've had as many points as in the season we got relegated, and this was the point we brought in Ole in as well.

Not only that, we genuinely look to be getting stronger (apart from when we play the top 6) whereas usually teams like us start well then fade.

Given the points of the bottom 3 at half way through the season another 20 points or 38 total, or possibly even 18 points or 36 total from the remaining 20 games may well ensure survival.
:ayatollah:

There are some parallels between this season and the Jack's first season. It took us 4 matches to score our first goal, it took them 5. We couldn't win away during the first half of the season then won away on match no 20. Swansea didn't win away until match no 20.

In terms of growing into the league, I think we're learning more about it as they did. The only difference in terms of stats is that they managed 5 more draws than us at this stage and conceded less (and undoubtedly had more possession). It'll be interesting to see what happens now. Will we beat one of the big boys at home? Can we keep this run going and finish more mid table than near the bottom?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

There are some parallels between this season and the Jack's first season. It took us 4 matches to score our first goal, it took them 5. We couldn't win away during the first half of the season then won away on match no 20. Swansea didn't win away until match no 20.

In terms of growing into the league, I think we're learning more about it as they did. The only difference in terms of stats is that they managed 5 more draws than us at this stage and conceded less (and undoubtedly had more possession). It'll be interesting to see what happens now. Will we beat one of the big boys at home? Can we keep this run going and finish more mid table than near the bottom?

---

It'll be interesting, we've definitely got a bad run in us at some point, we even had one at the turn of the year last season when we were promoted.
That said, we could also go on a run of winning very unlikely games like Warnock did against Rotherham.

I think a lot will also be down to how the other teams go - Fulham are a worry as they have the firepower to do well and have suddenly started not to give up as many huge chances.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rjk

It'll be interesting, we've definitely got a bad run in us at some point, we even had one at the turn of the year last season when we were promoted.
That said, we could also go on a run of winning very unlikely games like Warnock did against Rotherham.

I think a lot will also be down to how the other teams go - Fulham are a worry as they have the firepower to do well and have suddenly started not to give up as many huge chances.

---

Reading other forums the feeling is that only Huddersfield fans think that they are gone.

The others all seem certain we'll end up in it.

I think we can finish above Newcastle (can't see any investment in Jan although Tom Cairney looks like swapping with Voldomort), Burnley (Same little investment in Jan) Fulham (will spend but I think they are still not a side up for a fight) Huddersfield (gone) and Southampton (new manager bounce will end.)

Attachment 2897

Updated with the latest results.

First time this season that we can say we've picked up points at a rate that could keep us up.
Although only 3 points better off at this stage than the last time we were in the division, when we got 30.