Where Villa and Fulham could come unstuck

This Saturday Fulham go to Preston. Preston have lost twice at home to the promotion challengers (Villa and Middlesbrough), beating us and Bristol City and drawing with Wolves. Preston's form has been a bit sketchy, but if they harbour playoff ambitions, they need 3 points on Saturday.

Villa have a trip to Bolton who, prior to Saturday's home defeat to Preston, had gone 6 unbeaten at home, a run which included victories over us and Bristol City, and a draw to Fulham. That may not be easy for Villa.

Fulham face QPR in the West London derby. You'd expect Fulham to prevail at home but anything can happen in a derby match.

Both teams face Reading at home. While Reading have been at the wrong end of the table this season, their away form has been better than their form at the Majeski, where they've surprisingly won at Derby and Leeds (when Leeds were close to the top). Their defensive record away from home has been decent.

Both Villa and Fulham have to go to Millwall, who have lost only 3 home games all season, curiously against Burton, Barnsley and Ipswich. Wolves, Preston, Derby and ourselves scraped draws there while Middlesbrough, Leeds and Sheffield Utd all lost there. A trip to Millwall will be tough. Villa go there on the last day of the season.

Lastly, which might be of interest, is that us, Villa and Fulham all travel to Carrow Road. At home, Norwich have been worse than they have been on the road. Our recent history at Norwich is terrible, having lost 6 of our last 9 games there since promotion in 2003. Villa are in good form, having lost only 3 of their last 15 against them, though they've lost their last 2 at Carrow Road. Fulham have lost just 3 of their last 20 against Norwich, winning 13. Norwich have just 2 home wins against Fulham in 45 years!

Fecking hell, Eric my heads spinning!

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Originally Posted by jeremy corbyn

Fecking hell, Eric my heads spinning!

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:hehe:

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Originally Posted by jeremy corbyn

Fecking hell, Eric my heads spinning!

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They'll keep winning so we have to keep winning is how I simplify it.

I remember reading peoples posts when we went up as champions and in the run up my head would be left spinning every time I looked at one of the MBs

If we don’t make the automatics then I would want Fulham and Wolves go up as I’d fancy our chances against any of the others in the play offs

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Originally Posted by ninianclark

That's a great piece of writing, but it usually helps if you give a conclusion / synopsis at the end etc, otherwise I have to read it all again

What do you think Eric - will we or wont we based on your research.

I think Wolves will maintain 1st. Then either Fulham or Villa may catch us up. I predict it will go down to the last game and will be decided on goal difference, who that will be is anyone's guess

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Judging by Eric's last paragraph it seems we are up against it... even if we didn't think that before!

Too many points on offer and with the amount of factors that go into how a football match pans out, I take most statistics and historical games with a large pinch of salt.

Throw an "inexperienced" official in the mix and form, tactics and quality can quickly become null and void.
A lick of paint on a goalpost can mean the difference between success and failure, ask Harry Kane.

That is not to say that these types of post aren't interesting, good research and analysis by the way Eric.

I tend to agree with Ninian that it might well go down to the last game as far as automatic for us is concerned and, if it is to be decided on goal difference, we will probably lose out judging by the amount of recent wins by the odd goal.
I think I might take a last game decider right now mind you, as I suspect would many others.

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Originally Posted by MacAdder

Judging by Eric's last paragraph it seems we are up against it... even if we didn't think that before!

Too many points on offer and with the amount of factors that go into how a football match pans out, I take most statistics and historical games with a large pinch of salt.

Throw an "inexperienced" official in the mix and form, tactics and quality can quickly become null and void.
A lick of paint on a goalpost can mean the difference between success and failure, ask Harry Kane.

That is not to say that these types of post aren't interesting, good research and analysis by the way Eric.

I tend to agree with Ninian that it might well go down to the last game as far as automatic for us is concerned and, if it is to be decided on goal difference, we will probably lose out judging by the amount of recent wins by the odd goal.
I think I might take a last game decider right now mind you, as I suspect would many others.

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At the moment, us, Villa and Fulham have equal GD (24), however, Villa have 56, and Fulham 62 goals scored compared to our 52. The number of clean sheets we've had have certainly boosted our GD, but I wouldn't want to rely on GD to go up.

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Originally Posted by MacAdder

Judging by Eric's last paragraph it seems we are up against it... even if we didn't think that before!

Too many points on offer and with the amount of factors that go into how a football match pans out, I take most statistics and historical games with a large pinch of salt.

Throw an "inexperienced" official in the mix and form, tactics and quality can quickly become null and void.
A lick of paint on a goalpost can mean the difference between success and failure, ask Harry Kane.

That is not to say that these types of post aren't interesting, good research and analysis by the way Eric.

I tend to agree with Ninian that it might well go down to the last game as far as automatic for us is concerned and, if it is to be decided on goal difference, we will probably lose out judging by the amount of recent wins by the odd goal.
I think I might take a last game decider right now mind you, as I suspect would many others.

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I've done the predictor a load of times over different days and not been too kind with our results and I've always (bar one) had us by a point even after losing on the last day.

Not that my scientific research means a thing mind...

Just gonna enjoy the ride myself.

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Originally Posted by dembethewarrior

I've done the predictor a load of times over different days and not been too kind with our results and I've always (bar one) had us by a point even after losing on the last day.

Not that my scientific research means a thing mind...

Just gonna enjoy the ride myself.

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Have you factored in the City fans who want Villa to get a point against Wolves!

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Originally Posted by Harry Monk

At the moment, us, Villa and Fulham have equal GD (24), however, Villa have 56, and Fulham 62 goals scored compared to our 52. The number of clean sheets we've had have certainly boosted our GD, but I wouldn't want to rely on GD to go up.

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Surely less goals conceded usually equals more points on the board?

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Originally Posted by Wales-Bales

Have you factored in the City fans who want Villa to get a point against Wolves!

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Oh. Shit.

We need to play 5 strikers and get some goals on the chart

Patterson as ST #YouHeardItHereFirst

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cap7fzoXEAAHwWO.jpg

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Originally Posted by ninianclark

According to the echo we have 10 players out...

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Not ideal is it. I wonder how long we can go plugging gaps?

Bloody hell just read the OP drew a breath , got a strong drink and about to read it again , is it good or bad for us please help my nerves.

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Originally Posted by dembethewarrior

Oh. Shit.

We need to play 5 strikers and get some goals on the chart

Patterson as ST #YouHeardItHereFirst

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We need to start with :
""Patterson fit and on the pitch" # for god sake

My Fulham mate says they are not looking forward to playing Preston and Brentford is their Bogey team and they just know they usually drop points against them. He also said that he don't think they will quite catch us but wouldn't wish me luck.:hehe:

As we have found out to our cost, there are no easy games in this league.

Got the answer to ,

""Where Villa and Fulham could come unstuck ""

If they became a pair of dried up panini stickers ?

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Originally Posted by Wales-Bales

Surely less goals conceded usually equals more points on the board?

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If we finish the season with equal goal difference, the next stage is goals scored. The point I'm making is that if we're on the same points and GD at the end of the season as Villa or Fulham, it would be goals scored as the next measure - Fulham at the moment have scored 10 more goals than us.

If we draw 3 games 0-0 and Fulham win 3 games 2-1 we'd have the same GD as we do now, but Fulham will have scored 16 goals more than us, with a GD of an extra +3, and 9 points compared to our 3.

So no, less goals conceded doesn't always equal more points.

It's difficult to predict results in this league but strange results have been few and far between recently eg Wolves losing at home to Forest and Ipswich winning at Preston.

It is difficult to see past Fulham and Villa winning their more routine games with ease whereas City may have to again squeak through with their injury problems..

ps. Villa and Fulham having an injury crisis (or any injuries or suspensions) might help.:shrug:

I think that Fulham are probably much better equipped to deal with the likes of Preston than we are. They did a number on us tatically, but Fulham are pretty much the polar opposite to us in terms of playing style.

Fulham have got 10 games left, if we win 7 times, Fulham have to win 9. That's not going to happen. Villa can probably get away with 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their 11 but that's a hell of a run they'd put together. I'd say 7 wins pretty much guarantees promotion.

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Originally Posted by life on mars

Bloody hell just read the OP drew a breath , got a strong drink and about to read it again , is it good or bad for us please help my nerves.

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I was suggesting that things are far from plain sailing for Villa and Fulham. There seems to be a number of City fans expecting them to win most of their games and go on some herculean run of form. I don't quite buy into that train of thought. If either of them average 2 points a game between now and the end of the season then credit to them, but that's a tough act.

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Originally Posted by Pedro de la Rosa

Fulham have got 10 games left, if we win 7 times, Fulham have to win 9. That's not going to happen. Villa can probably get away with 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their 11 but that's a hell of a run they'd put together. I'd say 7 wins pretty much guarantees promotion.

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7 is a cert. I have us down as winning 6 and clinching promotion at Hull.

Villa have a few injuries so I think may will struggle to keep their form. Fulham on the other hand seem to be walking on water on the moment with everyone fit which is pretty amazing at this time of year.
Hopefully Mitrovic will go off and play in Bosnia or wherever and get injured.