Originally Posted by
Keyser Soze
Despite ticking over nicely, we are missing a few big things at this club that can make a colossal difference and our owners and Dalman are responsible for it.
Casting my mind back to our club's objectives at the start of the season I predicted a finish position of eighth, and I don't think we are doing that badly. I still think there is a chance we could nick that top six spot, although I now concede that it looking increasingly unlikely. But aside from objectives, and measuring against those objectives, the big things that are missing are more than about the style of football, and I still haven't figured out why these "low hanging fruit" are still missed by our owners. They are not expensive to fix relative to player budgets, but like all good business decisions, the risk / reward payoff would be huge.
A clutch of successful clubs understand three big things that we do not
Manchester City. Barcelona. Liverpool. RB Leipzig. Southampton. Bournemouth. Brighton. Brentford. Leeds. And add in Swansea, until they sold to the Yanks. What do they all have in common? First, yes, they have a positive football style on the pitch that excites the fans. Secondly, date. They have a forensic data analysis team not just for performance analysis, but also for player and management recruitment. Third, top people. In the case of the more progressive clubs they have dedicated roles for Head of Recruitment, Head of Performance Analysis, Head of Commercial Operations, Head of Data, Head of Academy and so on. The people in those positions are understood to be so valuable that they are paid a decent sum, but not in the grand scheme of total player budgets. The clubs adopting better structures, systems, people and scouting are getting the payoff, and in many cases way beyond their expectations. Three big things we don't seem to understand this yet, or certainly do not do well enough.
The benefits of modernising
What are the benefits of better academy, better recruitment, performance management? Well bums on seats for a start. More bums is more noise and more gate revenue. Basic stuff. The riches of promotion or sustained Premiership status as a result of all that need not be explained by me. Improved net player trading profits means a better ability to service debt, but can also reinvest into acquiring promising young players or cheap ones from abroad. Liverpool and Man City do this well, but again Brighton and Brentford have shown the way for low-budget clubs. The club becomes self-sustaining.
But let us not jump into the "Oooh Man City and Liverpool can afford it" argument. I challenge that, because Brighton, Brentford and Swansea showed you can recruit on a tight budget and ascend the divisions from the bottom to the top - whilst playing good football, churning player after player and coach after coach. And if you are really clever you hire bright young coaches and flood your academy with them, and ensure the style is consistent. It can be done. Once embedded from top to bottom across all age groups, the system overrides the power of one head coach, reducing the "key man risk" of all hinging one one big dominating personality. because the structures, environment & culture, and systems are equally self-sustaining. A coach goes but you promote one from beneath who coaches the same style and knows the players, or recruit a coach with the same style from another club, because the data has already given you a shortlist of candidates in preparation. But oddly here, out footballing styles whipsaw, our players churn with no consistency and coaches churned too, with styles altering and not much happening. Short-termism at its worst, and costly.
Dalman shakes the tree. But is he in the correct forest?
We are in a good position, so we don't need to panic. Because Dalman at least shakes things up when coach underperforms. But when will the club learn the correct lesson? Pressing style positive football, data analysis, better player and coach recruitment and performance analysis are no longer new. They are about 10-15 years old, but there are gains to be made still because most clubs still don't do it. Right now, Manchester United under Jim Ratcliffe are only just starting to overhaul their entire operational structure and acquiring the right people to ramp up for it. As much as I hate the club I am watching their story very closely as this is something Ratcliffe is good at, and clearly where he sees the gain to be made. They are now only 3-4 years from being back in the top four because of the class of the people they are hiring for Commercial Director, Head of Recruitment, Head of Performance Analysis, Head of Academy etc are nothing short of outstanding. There will be higher pay off from that long term than spending £85 on the likes of Sancho and Antony, or paying these quality off-the-field people good wages rather than an ageing Casemiro on 400k a week. It has taken United until 2024 for them to smell the coffee and get on the train because they too, have been falling behind and spending on junk. We have time, yet.
In addition, if you want to see an example of what happens when such structures and good people are removed, look at Swansea. The other day, at their fans conference it was admitted by Coleman that there was no longer a strategy for data, analysis and recruitment. There was under Jenkins and so it seems it was stripped when he left, or soon after. But at least the academy feeds them the youngster to keep going, so the benefit of that alone has saved their rashers. So when will Cardiff City pay attention to this? And if not, why not? If they already doing it, then it needs to bloody well improve because I don't see the evidence of it. If Man United are just starting to do it, and Dalman claims to have good links there, he should be talking to them and trying to replicate it. We need to be on top of this.
A guilty charge, but when will they modernise?
For the relative cost of acquiring databases, analysts, and well connected people the low-cost and high-gains should be attractive to a frugal man like Vincent Tan. He should find this approach an attractive proposition. And Dalman, the investment banker, should be all over the data / performance story like a rash as he is from an industry that is equally all over it. No further questions, your honour. I rest my case. Because if Cardiff City were hauled up in front of a judge on charges of "Not keeping up with recent trends in football" the jury would surely deliver an unanimous "Guilty" verdict. The man in the curly wig would bring the gavel down, and a burly chap in boring uniform would put the not-so-golden handcuffs on our owners, take them downstairs to get them into a nice dodgy jumpsuit and bang them behind bars.
Get it sorted.
