Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CCFCC3PO
True, and small changes in the model will have huge implications in later projections. There's lots of models, I'm wondering why they chose to go with this one.
Because it came out yesterday, I posted about it in the main thread and spotted the same issue (ICU bed estimates).
As for judging that model by our daily figures, what we see are registered deaths with family consent who were hospitalised at the time of death. There could be a time lag and we may not be seeing anything like accurate numbers for total deaths.
The ONS report is going to be next to useless because we werent/aren't testing in care homes. There was a sharp increase in overall deaths recorded for the week ending 27th march. The ONS only attributed 20/~500 of these to covid because their death certificate said covid was the cause of death. The actual number caused by covid but undiagnosed could be way higher and really it is pretty impossible to know (because we arent testing widely).
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
xsnaggle
I thought that, a 6 tiny needle injection done on your upper arm. Everyone used to say if it did a certain thing, swelled or changed colour or something, you'd have to have a different one with a "huge" needle but of course no one ever did lol
That was it I think. you had the "print" on your lower arm then you had to have the BCG if it didn't swell. Everyone in my school had it.
Was always a fear of it being a huge needle because of that weird mark it left on your arm.
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
938 deaths in UK today highest so far
Higher than Italy at its peak.
I think we are 2 weeks behind them.
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Welshcake.
It's not accurate at all. Our trajectory is almost exactly the same curve but we have fewer deaths due to lower population.
According to WIKI there's no much in it , our population is slightly higher than Italy ,France and Spain:
1 Russia 145,934,462
2 Germany 83,783,942
3 United Kingdom 67,886,011
4 France 65,273,511
5 Italy 60,461,826
6 Spain 46,754,778
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
poc
that was a different one again i think
that was the booster , you had one injection and depending on how it /you reacted you either had a booster or didn't , whcih was the round one like a daisy in your upper arm
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
life on mars
that was the booster , you had one injection and depending on how it /you reacted you either had a booster or didn't , whcih was the round one like a daisy in your upper arm
I had the daisy one in the lower arm. That is the Heaf test (NOT a vaccine), it determined whether or not you had been exposed to the TB infection. If you hadn't been exposed, you needed the vaccine. If you had been exposed, you were immune and didn't require a vaccine.
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CCFCC3PO
I had the daisy one in the lower arm. That is the Heaf test (NOT a vaccine), it determined whether or not you had been exposed to the TB infection. If you hadn't been exposed, you needed the vaccine. If you had been exposed, you were immune and didn't require a vaccine.
Yes the round one was the one eveybody had, that was the HEAF test I think, the other one was the booster. I had the full injection when I was 17. The most painful injerction i ever had for length of time it took to werar of was TABT. your arm would swell and you'd ache for days.
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
We used to have all sorts shoved into us in the 1950s.BCG was probably one of them.
This vaccine was first used in1921.Yet 1000s died from TB
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Croesy Blue
That was it I think. you had the "print" on your lower arm then you had to have the BCG if it didn't swell. Everyone in my school had it.
Was always a fear of it being a huge needle because of that weird mark it left on your arm.
It left a nasty and long-lasting scab as I recall. I think I got mine in 1978.
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
NYCBlue
It left a nasty and long-lasting scab as I recall. I think I got mine in 1978.
Yes I got mine in 1999 and still have the scar.
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Croesy Blue
Yes I got mine in 1999 and still have the scar.
Do you remember it being painful for a long time? My memory of it is that it took ages to heal. Like weeks and weeks. And it being really tender. Of course, everyone at school kept whacking each other on the arm.
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
I see that model which was predicting 66,000 UK deaths a few days ago has now downgraded its figure to nearly 37,500 with a projected peak of 1,674 next Friday - that still seems high to me, but possible (their forecast for yesterday was 300 plus above the figure given in the Government briefing).
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
I see that model which was predicting 66,000 UK deaths a few days ago has now downgraded its figure to nearly 37,500 with a projected peak of 1,674 next Friday - that still seems high to me, but possible (their forecast for yesterday was 300 plus above the figure given in the Government briefing).
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
The Italian Premier has announced on live Tv that they will remain in lockdown until 3rd May - the only concession are stores that sell goods for children.
The previous lockdown was suggested for Tuesday of next week the 14th April - so now they’ve got another 3 weeks to endure.
I can see ours going on until the end of May.
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
I see that model which was predicting 66,000 UK deaths a few days ago has now downgraded its figure to nearly 37,500 with a projected peak of 1,674 next Friday - that still seems high to me, but possible (their forecast for yesterday was 300 plus above the figure given in the Government briefing).
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
Also remember that there is no way all deaths caused by it are actually being recorded, this model will likely be assuming that everybody who gets it badly goes to hospital.
I find the longer term projections curious, no deaths from June onwards, I can't work out if that is modeled with social distancing still in place or 'business as usual'.
Edit/ Useful info in the FAQs
Quote:
When can social distancing measures be relaxed?
Our model assumes social distancing stays in place until the pandemic, in its current phase, reaches the point when deaths are less than 0.3 per million people. Based on our latest projections, we expect social distancing measures to be in place through the end of May.
The timeline could change based on what data show about the trajectory of the pandemic. In the meantime, we are working to forecast what would happen if social distancing measures are lifted before the pandemic is under control, and we will share these projections as soon as our work is complete.
Our forecasts of zero deaths in July and August assume that appropriate measures are put in place to guard against the reintroduction of COVID-19 from another state or country. These measures may include mass screening, contact tracing, testing of all individuals entering the country, and quarantine of people who test positive. Details on what these strategies need to be will be analyzed in future editions of the forecasts.
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
Also remember that there is no way all deaths caused by it are actually being recorded, this model will likely be assuming that everybody who gets it badly goes to hospital.
I find the longer term projections curious, no deaths from June onwards, I can't work out if that is modeled with social distancing still in place or 'business as usual'.
Think they expect a 2nd peak in June probably after restrictions are relaxed again, I guess the nhs will be better placed to cope then and lots might have had it by then mildly anyway. Whatever the general working population under 50 will be cracking on by then anyway....
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
Also remember that there is no way all deaths caused by it are actually being recorded, this model will likely be assuming that everybody who gets it badly goes to hospital.
I find the longer term projections curious, no deaths from June onwards, I can't work out if that is modeled with social distancing still in place or 'business as usual'.
Edit/ Useful info in the FAQs
Also remember that there is no way that all deaths attributed to Covid 19 are actually caused by it, as in some cases it may exist but other factors caused the death.
Re: (BCG) vaccine helping fight Corvid 19 ??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dml1954
Also remember that there is no way that all deaths attributed to Covid 19 are actually caused by it, as in some cases it may exist but other factors caused the death.
That is likely also but to a lesser degree. Are you talking about particular examples or just in general?
As sick as it might sound there is going to be some really interesting data to analyse once the dust has settled. Deaths caused by Covid-19 that have not been attributed to Covid-19 is something that can be estimated based on historic data but likely never fully understood because we weren't testing widely enough.
