Why the Ireland Sweden draw could be good for Wales

[Badly Ironed Shirt]

With both Sweden and Ireland on one point and having to play Italy and Belgium, there is a good chance that the 3rd placed team in that group will not have 3 points.

If so, then it will be the best four 3rd placed teams from the other 5 groups. I think there's a decent chance that third place in France's group will not make it to 3 points too.

[Pearcey3]

Love the optimism but it's a bit early for this.

[Rjk]

We've still got to finish 3rd

[Baloo]

Love the optimism but it's a bit early for this.

This scenario applies if we lose both of our remaining games.

[Badly Ironed Shirt]

This scenario applies if we lose both of our remaining games.

Exactly. Wales can only finish 4th if Slovakia take 4 points. That would leave One country on. 2 points and the other on 1. If Slovakia finish on three points they'll be above Slivakua on head to heads. It's not too early to look at these scenarios. Belgium and Italy are regarded as being the strongest teams in the group.

Only problem is, one of them could already be through with a game to spare, so a draw tonight would also be potential goid news.

[Pearcey3]

This scenario applies if we lose both of our remaining games.

I know but the optimism that three points will still be enough. We haven't finished the first round of matches yet.

[Badly Ironed Shirt]

I know but the optimism that three points will still be enough. We haven't finished the first round of matches yet.

Three points should be enough. It was in 1990 and would have been in 1986.

[Pearcey3]

Three points should be enough. It was in 1990 and would have been in 1986.

I gather there is an 87% chance that it will be enough but there are likely to be some surprises along the way so I think the permutations need to be looked at when more games have been played.

[Badly Ironed Shirt]

Apparently there is an 87% chance of qualifying with 3 draws! Not sure how that was calculated, but shows Wales are in a very good position at the moment.

[Badly Ironed Shirt]

I gather there is an 87% chance that it will be enough but there are likely to be some surprises along the way so I think the permutations need to be looked at when more games have been played.

I think it's fair to look now. 4 groups are already underway, there are only 3 rounds of fixtures and, in one group, the weakest 2 teams just drew.

I'm not saying Wales are through, I'm saying the Irish draw has potentially helped Wales into the second round.

[Pearcey3]

I think it's fair to look now. 4 groups are already underway, there are only 3 rounds of fixtures and, in one group, the weakest 2 teams just drew.

I'm not saying Wales are through, I'm saying the Irish draw has potentially helped Wales into the second round.

I think Sweden could beat Belgium.

[jimmytaff]

Apparently there is an 87% chance of qualifying with 3 draws! Not sure how that was calculated, but shows Wales are in a very good position at the moment.

Wales are in a good position under the new qualification system. However, as I understand it in most instances you are better off drawing three than winning one as you will have a neutral goal difference. If we lose our next two games we will definitely have a negative goal difference.

[Badly Ironed Shirt]

Wales are in a good position under the new qualification system. However, as I understand it in most instances you are better off drawing three than winning one as you will have a neutral goal difference. If we lose our next two games we will definitely have a negative goal difference.

Agreed. Had Skrtel got the red card and Wales a penalty then I think the goal difference would be even healthier.

[Rjk]

I gather there is an 87% chance that it will be enough but there are likely to be some surprises along the way so I think the permutations need to be looked at when more games have been played.

Only if zero goal difference, it away rapidly with lower goal difference

[Rjk]

Exactly. Wales can only finish 4th if Slovakia take 4 points. That would leave One country on. 2 points and the other on 1. If Slovakia finish on three points they'll be above Slivakua on head to heads. It's not too early to look at these scenarios. Belgium and Italy are regarded as being the strongest teams in the group.

Only problem is, one of them could already be through with a game to spare, so a draw tonight would also be potential goid news.

If Slovakia beat Russia
England beat us
Russia beat us
And Slovakia get anything against England then we would be out

[Badly Ironed Shirt]

If Slovakia beat Russia
England beat us
Russia beat us
And Slovakia get anything against England then we would be out

Yeah, that's what I said. The only way Slovakia can finish above Wales is by getting 4 points. In which case, one country will be on 3, one on 2 and one on 1. It would need England and Russia to both beat Wales.

Slovakia pl 3 4 PT
wales pl 1 3 PT
England/Russia pl 2 2 pt
England/Russia pl 2 1 pr

If Slovakia got to 4 points, that's the position of the other 3 countries. The bottom two would have Wales to play. Only way to drop Wales to 4th is by both of then winning. Possible, maybe likely. I can't see Slovakia getting to 4 points though.

[The Bloop]

Russia and Slovakia will draw on Wednesday and we'll beat England.
Group winners with a game to spare and time to rest some players in the Russia game.
Easy peasy lemon squeezy.

[Wales-Bales]

Surely now is a good time to rest Bale, Allen, Davies, Williams, Ramsey and both keepers, and also give Coleman a fortnight off?

[My Name is Dave.]

Can't see either Sweden or ROI getting anything against Belgium and Italy, so that's one other group where the 3rd placed teams are on one point.