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Here's a mathematical look at the possibility.
Over the last 10 seasons it's taken an average of 73 points to finish in 6th position. To do that we need to average 1.82 points a game between now and the end of the season. 1.82 points a game over 46 matches would result in 84 points, which would have won automatic promotion on 2 occasions over the last decade, so to finish in the top 6 means close on automatic promotion form between now and May.
Over the last 10 seasons it's taken an average of 86 points to finish in 2nd position. To do that we need to average 2.22 points a game between now and the end of the season. 2.22 points a game over 46 matches would result in 102 points, which has only been bettered once since the turn of the millennium. Not even Crystal Palace's form in 2003/4 was as good as that (they won 51 points from their last 24 at an average of 2.13).
So, have we got any realistic chance of even reaching the playoffs? I'd say highly unlikely.
Very unlikely.
We would need to have automatic winning form for the rest of the season, in a league with a number of sides that are better than us.
Even from now until the end of the season I think we will struggle to be in the top 6 teams, let alone the top 2.
Top half and some momentum to next season.
^^^^^ Two others who didn't manage to get the bet on at 40/1
Originally Posted by MacAdder
^^^^^ Two others who didn't manage to get the bet on at 40/1
Are you saying that you think we're capable of automatic promotion form between now and May? The odds could have been 40,000,000/1 and I wouldn't have been interested.^^^^^ Two others who didn't manage to get the bet on at 40/1
40/1 was for top 6. I got 35/1 for that bet and took it purely for the fact that Warnock has form for getting good runs out of his teams in this division. I agree that it's very unlikely but it added a bit of interest and excitement when he arrived.
We're now 8 points off that goal with 32 games to go, so it's achievable but means we have to average a max of 0.25 point/game more than everyone above us at present to 6th place, for the rest of the season. I'm going to start praying for lots of draws in the other sides while we average 2+ points from now on
No I'm not.
It was with reference to another thread and as Penarth Blues has said, it was for top 6.
Whether on the bet or not, most are looking up with the Warnock feel good factor and hoping.
Someone offers you 40 million to one and you wouldn't have been interested?
400K for a penny?
Eight points behind, who knows ,the standard apart from about 4or 5 clubs is not too hot in this league, so if we pull half that gap back with say half a dozen games left, you never know, we nearly got there last year but fell away, so its not impossible .but i will just be happy to get out of the shit we're in now40/1 was for top 6. I got 35/1 for that bet and took it purely for the fact that Warnock has form for getting good runs out of his teams in this division. I agree that it's very unlikely but it added a bit of interest and excitement when he arrived.
We're now 8 points off that goal with 32 games to go, so it's achievable but means we have to average a max of 0.25 point/game more than everyone above us at present to 6th place, for the rest of the season. I'm going to start praying for lots of draws in the other sides while we average 2+ points from now on
Palarse had 16 points at this point of the season in 2003/2004 and they got promoted through the playoffs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003%E...ce_F.C._season
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