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Thread: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

  1. #26

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    Well the remain campaign were pointing these things out before the referendum, saying we would either see trade tariffs or have to keep free movement of people.
    This was [s] lied about [/s] dismissed time again by the brexit bunch who promised everyone we could have both, making it seem as though there was both a financial and immigration case for brexit.
    If people knew they would be paying such a high price for reduced immigration (if that actually happens) I know several people who would have voted differently
    The official remain campaign did an awful job of explained the details of issues after an exit.

    Passporting and london was discussed rarely if ever, from what I read. And that would have been a major negative of leaving for thousands. If they thought london could be gutted of financial services.

    They relied on using emotional arguments. I don't know how many times Remain MP's and celebs wheeled out the argument of being loving and caring.

    The remain campaign claim to be the wise ones but their attempt was dire. They resorted to claiming economists were on their side so that gives their powder puff arguments credibility. As if they didn't need to explain themselves properly because of it.

    There are far, farrrrrrrrrr more intelligent people that voted leave than on this messageboard. Yet apparently remain voters have intelligence ring fenced for themselves.....

    Maybe in 20 years time we'll know if the decision was a poor one. Because positives and negatives can only be compared to how the EU succeeds/fails over a long term period. We'll see.

  2. #27

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    Arab Spring was Soros/Globalists. Brexit/Trump is opposing force as far as I can see.
    What did Soros tell that fruit seller to set himself on fire?.

  3. #28

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by LordKenwyne View Post
    Maybe in 20 years time we'll know if the decision was a poor one. Because positives and negatives can only be compared to how the EU succeeds/fails over a long term period. We'll see.
    The fait of the EU will be decided in 2017.

  4. #29

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    Can you clarify what the bit in bold means?
    Predictions use historic figures, plus your gut feeling. They are not based on what will happen in the future. Its far too complex to try and do that. So they use what has happened previously, this can allow you to accurately predict what will happen for the same scenario. Only this had not happened previously, so you cannot use any predictions for what will happen accurately. Any prediction is simply ones gut feeling.

    All the economists who got it so wrong prove that. Yes not much has actually happened, but one of the cores of their predictions was a massive loss in confidence, and if that was going to happen it would have. There was an initial blip as people held their breath, but the economy has continued to improve since brexit. And if anything confidence has improved in the british economy since brexit.

  5. #30

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    The fait of the EU will be decided in 2017.
    Yes.

    I don't think she will win.

  6. #31

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    When a Le Pen — or his or her party — makes it to a second round of elections, French conservatives and leftists have historically come together in a front républicain to block the National Front. This happened in 2002, when conservative Jacques Chirac squared off against Jean-Marie Le Pen following Socialist Lionel Jospin’s shocking defeat in the first round. Chirac swept the second round with a whopping 82 percent of the vote; such was the scale of revulsion at the prospect of a racist, xenophobic, anti-Semitic bigot in the Élysée palace.

    Last year — barely a month after the deadly Paris attacks — French voters did it again in the December regional elections, when conservatives and the left banded together to block a National Front sweep.

  7. #32

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by LordKenwyne View Post
    The official remain campaign did an awful job of explained the details of issues after an exit.

    Passporting and london was discussed rarely if ever, from what I read. And that would have been a major negative of leaving for thousands. If they thought london could be gutted of financial services.

    They relied on using emotional arguments. I don't know how many times Remain MP's and celebs wheeled out the argument of being loving and caring.

    The remain campaign claim to be the wise ones but their attempt was dire. They resorted to claiming economists were on their side so that gives their powder puff arguments credibility. As if they didn't need to explain themselves properly because of it.

    There are far, farrrrrrrrrr more intelligent people that voted leave than on this messageboard. Yet apparently remain voters have intelligence ring fenced for themselves.....

    Maybe in 20 years time we'll know if the decision was a poor one. Because positives and negatives can only be compared to how the EU succeeds/fails over a long term period. We'll see.
    We'll know whether it was a mistake or not a long time before twenty years have elapsed - a quarter of that time should be enough.

  8. #33

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by LordKenwyne View Post
    Because positives and negatives can only be compared to how the EU succeeds/fails over a long term period. We'll see.
    Where I have a problem is the initial hit that is likely, and that the harder the exit, the harder the initial hit will be. I can't accept things might be better in the long term if it causes many problems initially, like financial hardship, increased inequality etc

  9. #34

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Dragon View Post
    Predictions use historic figures, plus your gut feeling. They are not based on what will happen in the future. Its far too complex to try and do that. So they use what has happened previously, this can allow you to accurately predict what will happen for the same scenario. Only this had not happened previously, so you cannot use any predictions for what will happen accurately. Any prediction is simply ones gut feeling.

    All the economists who got it so wrong prove that. Yes not much has actually happened, but one of the cores of their predictions was a massive loss in confidence, and if that was going to happen it would have. There was an initial blip as people held their breath, but the economy has continued to improve since brexit. And if anything confidence has improved in the british economy since brexit.
    Were these economists saying that all of these dire things would happen while we remained in the EU? If they were, it would seem to me that they were defeating their own argument.

    People on both sides of the fence are jumping to all sorts of conclusions and yet the mechanism by which we leave the EU is months away from starting yet if you believe what the Government are saying about invoking article 50 - it way too early yet to tell whether, economically speaking, the right decision was made in the referendum or not.

  10. #35

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    The fait of the EU will be decided in 2017.
    I've just read that Francois Fillon is pro russia and assad. Not sure about the EU.

    Juppe is the one the left is voting for.

    So if its Fillon v Pen then Putin wins.

    Fillon has a welsh wife as well. A welsh first lady of france

    http://www.thelocal.fr/20161121/coul...ext-first-lady
    Last edited by LordKenwyne; 22-11-16 at 11:59.

  11. #36

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    We'll know whether it was a mistake or not a long time before twenty years have elapsed - a quarter of that time should be enough.
    You're probably right.

    Article 50 is definitely not going to be pretty.

    We've had price increases in work because of the rise in imports.

    Many companies will have adapted to the low currency by the time 50 happens.

    Tariffs on top of that will be another story.....

  12. #37

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by LordKenwyne View Post
    When a Le Pen — or his or her party — makes it to a second round of elections, French conservatives and leftists have historically come together in a front républicain to block the National Front. This happened in 2002, when conservative Jacques Chirac squared off against Jean-Marie Le Pen following Socialist Lionel Jospin’s shocking defeat in the first round. Chirac swept the second round with a whopping 82 percent of the vote; such was the scale of revulsion at the prospect of a racist, xenophobic, anti-Semitic bigot in the Élysée palace.

    Last year — barely a month after the deadly Paris attacks — French voters did it again in the December regional elections, when conservatives and the left banded together to block a National Front sweep.
    I agree with that, except this time the Madame is offering a EU referendum, and Breitbart are also hiring French reporting staff as they prepare for a Paris launch.

    I'm waiting for the fat lady

  13. #38
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    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    I agree with that, except this time the Madame is offering a EU referendum, and Breitbart are also hiring French reporting staff as they prepare for a Paris launch.

    I'm waiting for the fat lady
    I've been here all the time.

  14. #39

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by LordKenwyne View Post
    What did Soros tell that fruit seller to set himself on fire?.
    That's one way of looking at it.

  15. #40

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    I agree with that, except this time the Madame is offering a EU referendum, and Breitbart are also hiring French reporting staff as they prepare for a Paris launch.

    I'm waiting for the fat lady
    To be honest I am guessing, based on very little. Who wouldn've thought Donald Trump would be president.

    France gains massively from the agricultural policies of the EU doesn't it?. And that is its main industry. Exporting cars as well.

    Her anti islam vote won't win it for her. That Fillon guy is strict catholic. France already bans the burka etc, so not sure what can be gained from her anti islam policies. Do what trump said he'd do and block immigration from islamic countries?.

    Algeria/Morooco makes up 16% & 15% of all migration to france. Maybe block them?. Apart from that, EU countries far exceed all others. And France is already filled with Islamic people. It'll only create more and more division.

    But yes if France leaves that could be its downfall. Is france eurosceptic?. Not from my experiences there.

    An independent france on our door step could be a good thing. We'll be better friends than if one remains in the EU.

  16. #41

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by LordKenwyne View Post
    I've just read that Francois Fillon is pro russia and assad. Not sure about the EU.

    Juppe is the one the left is voting for.

    So if its Fillon v Pen then Putin wins.

    Fillon has a welsh wife as well. A welsh first lady of france

    http://www.thelocal.fr/20161121/coul...ext-first-lady
    I never knew that - cool info.

    On further investigation it transpires that they were married near Abergavenny: "They married in 1980 at the 17th Century church of St Bartholomew in Llanover, near Abergavenny, for which Mrs Fillon needed a special licence because she was already living in France."


  17. #42

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Dragon View Post
    Predictions use historic figures, plus your gut feeling. They are not based on what will happen in the future. Its far too complex to try and do that. So they use what has happened previously, this can allow you to accurately predict what will happen for the same scenario. Only this had not happened previously, so you cannot use any predictions for what will happen accurately. Any prediction is simply ones gut feeling.

    All the economists who got it so wrong prove that. Yes not much has actually happened, but one of the cores of their predictions was a massive loss in confidence, and if that was going to happen it would have. There was an initial blip as people held their breath, but the economy has continued to improve since brexit. And if anything confidence has improved in the british economy since brexit.
    If the people who want Brexit could give some idea of what they want it to look like then economists could begin trying to forecast what our future may look like.

    Pound vs Dollar

    Onlyblip.jpg

    Now maybe I am just being negative...but I think that shows a pretty significant loss of confidence and not much of a recovery (not sure where you could possibly get 'if anything confidence has improved in the British economy since Brexit'...).

    A massive drop in the value of the pound was predicted and a massive drop in the value of the pound has occurred.

  18. #43

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    If the people who want Brexit could give some idea of what they want it to look like then economists could begin trying to forecast what our future may look like.

    Pound vs Dollar

    Onlyblip.jpg

    Now maybe I am just being negative...but I think that shows a pretty significant loss of confidence and not much of a recovery (not sure where you could possibly get 'if anything confidence has improved in the British economy since Brexit'...).

    A massive drop in the value of the pound was predicted and a massive drop in the value of the pound has occurred.
    Why hasn't the dollar crashed? Trump is ripping up trade deals left, right and centre, and he also want's to spend a trillion+ dollars and roads and stuff.

    I'd hazard a guess and say the EU project is very important to some people, and they will do anything to try and stop it going down the shitter.
    Last edited by Wales-Bales; 22-11-16 at 22:03.

  19. #44

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    Why hasn't the dollar crashed? Trump is ripping up trade deals left, right and centre, and he also want's to spend a trillion+ dollars and roads and stuff.

    I'd hazard a guess and say the EU project is very important to some people, and they will do anything to try and stop it going down the shitter.
    I guess whilst Trump's presidency makes life quite uncertain for minority groups, businesses may do well out of his penchant for less and less regulation.

    In terms of infrastructure projects, most economists agree that it will be good for the economy, should have happened here but the public bought the fallacy that you could compare the finances of a country with the finances of a household.

    In short, America will probably become more unequal under the Trump but I can't see any reason why confidence in the economy should plummet.

    The UK has no plan, never had a plan and that is reflected in the outright lack of confidence in our currency. The simple fact is that us leaving the EU is probably bad for both of us, their currency hasn't been hit so hard because their challenges are obvious, ours depend on lots of things that no one knows yet.

  20. #45

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    If the people who want Brexit could give some idea of what they want it to look like then economists could begin trying to forecast what our future may look like.

    Pound vs Dollar

    Onlyblip.jpg

    Now maybe I am just being negative...but I think that shows a pretty significant loss of confidence and not much of a recovery (not sure where you could possibly get 'if anything confidence has improved in the British economy since Brexit'...).

    A massive drop in the value of the pound was predicted and a massive drop in the value of the pound has occurred.
    A weak currency can be great for the economy so think you probably are being pretty negative.

    ftse.jpg

    It all depends on what way you want to look at it.

  21. #46

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    I guess whilst Trump's presidency makes life quite uncertain for minority groups, businesses may do well out of his penchant for less and less regulation.

    In terms of infrastructure projects, most economists agree that it will be good for the economy, should have happened here but the public bought the fallacy that you could compare the finances of a country with the finances of a household.

    In short, America will probably become more unequal under the Trump but I can't see any reason why confidence in the economy should plummet.

    The UK has no plan, never had a plan and that is reflected in the outright lack of confidence in our currency. The simple fact is that us leaving the EU is probably bad for both of us, their currency hasn't been hit so hard because their challenges are obvious, ours depend on lots of things that no one knows yet.
    Easy solution - follow what America does and hang onto Trump's coat tails. Don't forget we've also got a bad assed right-wing government in power who could be a lot meaner than Trump

    And seriously, the elites have got over 60 years invested into this EU project, and a hell of a lot of money. Also their end game is (was?) very near.
    Last edited by Wales-Bales; 22-11-16 at 23:14.

  22. #47

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by TruBlue View Post
    A weak currency can be great for the economy so think you probably are being pretty negative.

    ftse.jpg

    It all depends on what way you want to look at it.
    75% of revenue from FTSE100 companies comes from abroad so it is a pretty darn poor measure of the success of/confidence in the UK economy. The FTSE250 is a slightly better measure as only 50% of revenue comes from abroad, after diving up and down for a couple of months it is at the same levels as this time last year. Also if you break it down industry to industry, the differences are even more stark.

    "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses a lamp post, for support rather than illumination". The FTSE being illegitimately wheeled out by the brexit gang is a great example of this in action.

  23. #48

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by TruBlue View Post
    A weak currency can be great for the economy so think you probably are being pretty negative.

    ftse.jpg

    It all depends on what way you want to look at it.
    But that chart is measured in £ which has weakened over the course of it. It doesn't show any significant rise in real value of the index, just that the units in are measuring it in have become smaller.

  24. #49

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    75% of revenue from FTSE100 companies comes from abroad so it is a pretty darn poor measure of the success of/confidence in the UK economy. The FTSE250 is a slightly better measure as only 50% of revenue comes from abroad, after diving up and down for a couple of months it is at the same levels as this time last year. Also if you break it down industry to industry, the differences are even more stark.

    "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses a lamp post, for support rather than illumination". The FTSE being illegitimately wheeled out by the brexit gang is a great example of this in action.
    I'm not sure I follow your first sentence? I'm no economist but external investment seems like a good thing for the economy for me.

    As for the drunken stats comment, I'd agree it was merely pointing out how you wish to look at it, but a weak pound doesn't automatically mean bad news for the economy as a drunken man pointed out.

  25. #50

    Re: Hard brexit for Britain, whether we want it or not

    Quote Originally Posted by TruBlue View Post
    I'm not sure I follow your first sentence? I'm no economist but external investment seems like a good thing for the economy for me.

    As for the drunken stats comment, I'd agree it was merely pointing out how you wish to look at it, but a weak pound doesn't automatically mean bad news for the economy as a drunken man pointed out.
    Their revenue is worth more if the pound is weak, the value of their company goes up if their revenue is worth more.

    The FTSE100 rising is a predictable symptom of a weak pound and not a signal of confidence.

    As for a weak currency being good. Maybe I am being negative again but it isn't a club I would join through choice...

    Weak Currency.jpg
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