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Thread: Playoffs? How possible are they?

  1. #1

    Playoffs? How possible are they?

    I thought I'd have a statistical look over the last 20 seasons in the Championship to see what chances we have, based on that.

    On average, 74 would get a team into 6th place. That figure has been as low as 68 or as high as 78 points. What sort of points tally might we expect this season? Well, Leeds have the lowest points per game average in the top 6 at 1.76, which would result in 81 points over the course of the season. The average number of points a team might have in 6th place after a similar number of games is 1.63, or 54 points at this stage - 4 lower than Leeds. In fact, Leeds current points per game tally is higher than any side sitting in 6th position at the same stage of the season. That suggests to get into the playoffs will require a higher than normal number of points - arguably higher than at any time over the last 2 decades. Let's say, for argument's sale that 78 points (the joint highest) gets you into the top 6, albeit the figure could end up being higher.

    That leaves us needing 33 points from our last 14 games at 2.36 points a game! That's Championship winning form, which would equate to 108 points over the course of the season! Unlikely? Yes. However.....

    In 2010/11, Reading were languishing in 12th place with 44 points after 32 games. They won 33 points from their last 14 and ended up in 5th. The first part of that sounds highly familiar.

    In 1997/98, Ipswich were in 12th and won 38 points from their last 15 to finish in 5th with 83 points at a whopping 2.53 points a game.

    Hull in 2007/08, Preston in 2000/01 and Bolton in 1999/2000 all won 2 or more points a game from this point in the season to finish in the playoffs from some distance away. Crystal Palace in 2007/8 and Burnley in 2008/9 both averaged over 1.9 points a game to do the same.

    In short, only one team since the millennium has achieved what Cardiff City will likely need to achieve if we are to finish in the playoffs.

  2. #2

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    I thought I'd have a statistical look over the last 20 seasons in the Championship to see what chances we have, based on that.

    On average, 74 would get a team into 6th place. That figure has been as low as 68 or as high as 78 points. What sort of points tally might we expect this season? Well, Leeds have the lowest points per game average in the top 6 at 1.76, which would result in 81 points over the course of the season. The average number of points a team might have in 6th place after a similar number of games is 1.63, or 54 points at this stage - 4 lower than Leeds. In fact, Leeds current points per game tally is higher than any side sitting in 6th position at the same stage of the season. That suggests to get into the playoffs will require a higher than normal number of points - arguably higher than at any time over the last 2 decades. Let's say, for argument's sale that 78 points (the joint highest) gets you into the top 6, albeit the figure could end up being higher.

    That leaves us needing 33 points from our last 14 games at 2.36 points a game! That's Championship winning form, which would equate to 108 points over the course of the season! Unlikely? Yes. However.....

    In 2010/11, Reading were languishing in 12th place with 44 points after 32 games. They won 33 points from their last 14 and ended up in 5th. The first part of that sounds highly familiar.

    In 1997/98, Ipswich were in 12th and won 38 points from their last 15 to finish in 5th with 83 points at a whopping 2.53 points a game.

    Hull in 2007/08, Preston in 2000/01 and Bolton in 1999/2000 all won 2 or more points a game from this point in the season to finish in the playoffs from some distance away. Crystal Palace in 2007/8 and Burnley in 2008/9 both averaged over 1.9 points a game to do the same.

    In short, only one team since the millennium has achieved what Cardiff City will likely need to achieve if we are to finish in the playoffs.
    Our need is only to win each game or at least not lose.
    What will be, will be.

  3. #3

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Think we'd need to win 10 of our last 13 games to make the play-offs which is going some, we still have to play Sheff Wed, Huddersfield and Barnsley away as well. Saying that, we've won 7 of our last 10 so you never know. If Neil gets us to 6th he really deserves a statue next to Fred Keenor's.

  4. #4

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    You can tell Eric's nappy changing days are behind him. He has plenty of time on his hands now!!

  5. #5

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    I thought I'd have a statistical look over the last 20 seasons in the Championship to see what chances we have, based on that.

    On average, 74 would get a team into 6th place. That figure has been as low as 68 or as high as 78 points. What sort of points tally might we expect this season? Well, Leeds have the lowest points per game average in the top 6 at 1.76, which would result in 81 points over the course of the season. The average number of points a team might have in 6th place after a similar number of games is 1.63, or 54 points at this stage - 4 lower than Leeds. In fact, Leeds current points per game tally is higher than any side sitting in 6th position at the same stage of the season. That suggests to get into the playoffs will require a higher than normal number of points - arguably higher than at any time over the last 2 decades. Let's say, for argument's sale that 78 points (the joint highest) gets you into the top 6, albeit the figure could end up being higher.

    That leaves us needing 33 points from our last 14 games at 2.36 points a game! That's Championship winning form, which would equate to 108 points over the course of the season! Unlikely? Yes. However.....

    In 2010/11, Reading were languishing in 12th place with 44 points after 32 games. They won 33 points from their last 14 and ended up in 5th. The first part of that sounds highly familiar.

    In 1997/98, Ipswich were in 12th and won 38 points from their last 15 to finish in 5th with 83 points at a whopping 2.53 points a game.

    Hull in 2007/08, Preston in 2000/01 and Bolton in 1999/2000 all won 2 or more points a game from this point in the season to finish in the playoffs from some distance away. Crystal Palace in 2007/8 and Burnley in 2008/9 both averaged over 1.9 points a game to do the same.

    In short, only one team since the millennium has achieved what Cardiff City will likely need to achieve if we are to finish in the playoffs.
    Haven't we got 13 games left?

  6. #6

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by Baloo View Post
    Haven't we got 13 games left?
    Er yes. I was looking on the statto website and hadn't noticed it hasn't been updated since the weekend :(

  7. #7

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve R View Post
    You can tell Eric's nappy changing days are behind him. He has plenty of time on his hands now!!
    I wish!

  8. #8

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    Er yes. I was looking on the statto website and hadn't noticed it hasn't been updated since the weekend :(
    So we need more points per game than even Ipswich managed then?

  9. #9

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    The play offs are extremely unlikely BUT...

    We are 6 points from 7th position, so we need to gain 'only' 6 points or less on 'only' 5 teams to get to 7th position.

    A couple of weeks ago, there were too many teams to overtake to potentially get to a play off position if one of the top 6 slipped up.

    That isn't really insurmountable now.

    So the real problem is the current 13 point gap with inferior goal difference with only 13 games left.

    Momentum is key for us and one of either Sheff Wed or Leeds.

    Looking at the run in.

    Immediately this weekend we have a tough game at home to Fulham, who taught us a footballing lesson last time they were in town. Times have changed and we now seem to playing with some more structure, plans and belief. Not going to be easy, but IF we can get 3 points, we see Leeds play at home to Sheff Wed on Saturday.
    We will gain at least 2 points.

    Hopefully Leeds will lose, as they have quite a tough run in and can see them starting to drop points.

    If we can keep some momentum going, then in 5 games time that gap could possibly become 6 or 7 points or even less.

    Anything at that point could become possible.

    There's a lot of ifs, mights and possibles above and I'm not expecting miracles, but anything is possible.

    For now though, we have to take it a game at a time, trying to keep chipping away and just focus on us playing to our individual's and team potential.

  10. #10

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    I thought I'd have a statistical look over the last 20 seasons in the Championship to see what chances we have, based on that.

    On average, 74 would get a team into 6th place. That figure has been as low as 68 or as high as 78 points. What sort of points tally might we expect this season? Well, Leeds have the lowest points per game average in the top 6 at 1.76, which would result in 81 points over the course of the season. The average number of points a team might have in 6th place after a similar number of games is 1.63, or 54 points at this stage - 4 lower than Leeds. In fact, Leeds current points per game tally is higher than any side sitting in 6th position at the same stage of the season. That suggests to get into the playoffs will require a higher than normal number of points - arguably higher than at any time over the last 2 decades. Let's say, for argument's sale that 78 points (the joint highest) gets you into the top 6, albeit the figure could end up being higher.

    That leaves us needing 33 points from our last 14 games at 2.36 points a game! That's Championship winning form, which would equate to 108 points over the course of the season! Unlikely? Yes. However.....

    In 2010/11, Reading were languishing in 12th place with 44 points after 32 games. They won 33 points from their last 14 and ended up in 5th. The first part of that sounds highly familiar.

    In 1997/98, Ipswich were in 12th and won 38 points from their last 15 to finish in 5th with 83 points at a whopping 2.53 points a game.

    Hull in 2007/08, Preston in 2000/01 and Bolton in 1999/2000 all won 2 or more points a game from this point in the season to finish in the playoffs from some distance away. Crystal Palace in 2007/8 and Burnley in 2008/9 both averaged over 1.9 points a game to do the same.

    In short, only one team since the millennium has achieved what Cardiff City will likely need to achieve if we are to finish in the playoffs.
    Eric, I believe this is "a bridge too far" but who would have thought (just 6 weeks ago) that we would be debating this on the MB ?
    We were so concerned about getting away from the bottom pack and avoiding relegation and now we wonder what the possibilities are of making the play off's.
    Let's hope the board can see the change at the club from top to bottom and seriously try to back NW in his efforts next season.

  11. #11

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by DubaiDai View Post
    Eric, I believe this is "a bridge too far" but who would have thought (just 6 weeks ago) that we would be debating this on the MB ?
    We were so concerned about getting away from the bottom pack and avoiding relegation and now we wonder what the possibilities are of making the play off's.
    Let's hope the board can see the change at the club from top to bottom and seriously try to back NW in his efforts next season.
    I think your last sentence says it all.

    This season, we're talking about City needing two points a game from now on when we've already been doing that for ten matches, so, realistically, we need to show Championship title winning form (a better points per game rate than the 12/13 team managed) for half a season with a squad that is looking short of numbers following the transfer window and some recent injuries - I just don't see it happening.

  12. #12
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    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    I would be happy to get mathematically safe and then start testing a few of the fringe and reserve/youth players, blooding them for next season. get them ready plus a few decent signings and we have a real shot next season...

    In Warnock we trust

  13. #13

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by islandblue View Post
    Think we'd need to win 10 of our last 13 games to make the play-offs which is going some, we still have to play Sheff Wed, Huddersfield and Barnsley away as well. Saying that, we've won 7 of our last 10 so you never know. If Neil gets us to 6th he really deserves a statue next to Fred Keenor's.
    You can imagine him doing it, making the play offs that is, and Tan still not backing him so he moves on......face palm

  14. #14

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Can't see it this season, but next......oh yes

  15. #15

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by goats View Post
    Can't see it this season, but next......oh yes
    For the last few seasons, summer has seemed like a sweet relief from Saturday afternoons of misery and despair.

    This year, I am already looking forward to next season, unless the club does a Cardiff and fecks it up by letting Warnock leave.

  16. #16
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    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by TH63 View Post
    For the last few seasons, summer has seemed like a sweet relief from Saturday afternoons of misery and despair.

    This year, I am already looking forward to next season, unless the club does a Cardiff and fecks it up by letting Warnock leave.
    When Warnock leaves at the end of the season it want be the fault of the club.

  17. #17

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tandy View Post
    When Warnock leaves at the end of the season it want be the fault of the club.
    IF he leaves because he wants to retire or gets a better offer then yeah, but IF he leaves because the club don't do their utmost to keep him, then I think it WOULD be the fault of the club. "All" they need to do is make a few million available to him and convince him they want us to get promoted.

    The last time we made it to the prem it was because we spent a fortune and did it in red, for many of us it all felt a bit tainted to one degree or another.

    If we we make it next season it will be in blue, playing entertaining football and most of the supporters on the same page.

    Can't wait.

  18. #18

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    I thought I'd have a statistical look over the last 20 seasons in the Championship to see what chances we have, based on that.

    On average, 74 would get a team into 6th place. That figure has been as low as 68 or as high as 78 points. What sort of points tally might we expect this season? Well, Leeds have the lowest points per game average in the top 6 at 1.76, which would result in 81 points over the course of the season. The average number of points a team might have in 6th place after a similar number of games is 1.63, or 54 points at this stage - 4 lower than Leeds. In fact, Leeds current points per game tally is higher than any side sitting in 6th position at the same stage of the season. That suggests to get into the playoffs will require a higher than normal number of points - arguably higher than at any time over the last 2 decades. Let's say, for argument's sale that 78 points (the joint highest) gets you into the top 6, albeit the figure could end up being higher.

    That leaves us needing 33 points from our last 14 games at 2.36 points a game! That's Championship winning form, which would equate to 108 points over the course of the season! Unlikely? Yes. However.....

    In 2010/11, Reading were languishing in 12th place with 44 points after 32 games. They won 33 points from their last 14 and ended up in 5th. The first part of that sounds highly familiar.

    In 1997/98, Ipswich were in 12th and won 38 points from their last 15 to finish in 5th with 83 points at a whopping 2.53 points a game.

    Hull in 2007/08, Preston in 2000/01 and Bolton in 1999/2000 all won 2 or more points a game from this point in the season to finish in the playoffs from some distance away. Crystal Palace in 2007/8 and Burnley in 2008/9 both averaged over 1.9 points a game to do the same.

    In short, only one team since the millennium has achieved what Cardiff City will likely need to achieve if we are to finish in the playoffs.
    Thanx for the analysis, Eric. In bookies terms I guess we are a 20/1 shot at getting in the playoffs. Not impossible, but very unlikely. To be honest I am just grateful that any chance of relegation has disappeared. Hopefully Mrs Warnock will convince her husband to stay, and Mrs Tan will convince her husband to continue investing and we may have a decent shout at promotion next season,

  19. #19

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post

    In short, only one team since the millennium has achieved what Cardiff City will likely need to achieve if we are to finish in the playoffs.
    So what you are saying is that it is overdue to happen. So its a dead cert? I hear you.

    Blooooobirds

  20. #20

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    West Brom are currently 13 points off the Champions League places.

    I don't expect them to make it either.

  21. #21

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by TH63 View Post
    For the last few seasons, summer has seemed like a sweet relief from Saturday afternoons of misery and despair.

    This year, I am already looking forward to next season, unless the club does a Cardiff and fecks it up by letting Warnock leave.

  22. #22

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Currently possible in that mathematically it's still possible that we can get more points than any of the teams in the top six.

    Impossible in that it is only a matter of time before it is not mathematically possible to get more points than any of the teams in the top six.

  23. #23

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    As unlikely as it is, while it's still possible, I'm looking up the table and watching other results. Hoping for a Derby slip up tonight and the Bumpkins to upset Fulham tomorrow.

  24. #24

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Shitpeas View Post
    As unlikely as it is, while it's still possible, I'm looking up the table and watching other results. Hoping for a Derby slip up tonight and the Bumpkins to upset Fulham tomorrow.
    Derby dropped points drawing against Burton, Reading lost to Huddersfield and Sheff Wed lost to Brentford.

    All very good results for us. Do we have to cheer on Bristol tonight?

    So for the teams that we are looking at to try and get ahead only us and Sheff Wed won games this weekend, and Sheff Wed lost in the other game. Been a perfect week for the City.

  25. #25

    Re: Playoffs? How possible are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Shitpeas View Post
    As unlikely as it is, while it's still possible, I'm looking up the table and watching other results. Hoping for a Derby slip up tonight and the Bumpkins to upset Fulham tomorrow.
    Other results won't really matter. We know we'll almost certainly need somewhere around 78 points.

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