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Thread: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

  1. #1

    Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

    Not so sure it is a one off, other polls published this weekend also show slight drops in Tory support and Labour creeping to around or just above their 2015 election levels, but the Sunday Times poll is the only one taken after the launch of the Tory manifesto.

    I'm not expecting a Corbyn led Government or anything like that (polls have become pretty discredited in recent years and I have a lifetime's experience of them under estimating the size of the Conservative vote on polling day), but I do think our strong and stable leader made an error with those plans for how social care would be financed.

  2. #2
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    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

    Not so sure it is a one off, other polls published this weekend also show slight drops in Tory support and Labour creeping to around or just above their 2015 election levels, but the Sunday Times poll is the only one taken after the launch of the Tory manifesto.

    I'm not expecting a Corbyn led Government or anything like that (polls have become pretty discredited in recent years and I have a lifetime's experience of them under estimating the size of the Conservative vote on polling day), but I do think our strong and stable leader made an error with those plans for how social care would be financed.
    I think it will be far far closer than the polls suggest, although i have been flirting with voting PC, I have been impressed by Jezza this campaign and will prolly revert to type and go with Jezza.

  3. #3

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nelsonca61 View Post
    I think it will be far far closer than the polls suggest, although i have been flirting with voting PC, I have been impressed by Jezza this campaign and will prolly revert to type and go with Jezza.
    I think they have actually run a decent campaign which is a surprise given that under Corbyn the party has lurched from crisis to crisis. However, if it did look remotely close I am sure the press have a few tricks up their sleeves for the final week.

    I think in most polls the Tories have benefited from a massive swing in support from UKIP to them but will these people actually turn out on 3rd June?

  4. #4

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    "Theresa May, the leader of the UK Conservative Party has pledged to create new internet that would be controlled and regulated by government on re-election. "

    https://yro.slashdot.org/story/17/05...olled-internet

    I think this plus the dementia tax and fracking could change everything. There are a lot of interesting comments on Slashdot. The Conservatives are making so many mistakes I think someone in the party doesn't want to win this election.

  5. #5

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by David Vincent View Post
    "Theresa May, the leader of the UK Conservative Party has pledged to create new internet that would be controlled and regulated by government on re-election. "

    https://yro.slashdot.org/story/17/05...olled-internet

    I think this plus the dementia tax and fracking could change everything. There are a lot of interesting comments on Slashdot. The Conservatives are making so many mistakes I think someone in the party doesn't want to win this election.
    There's probably a fairly big number of voters who 1) think it's possible for the government to control the internet and 2) think it's a good thing.

  6. #6

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by David Vincent View Post
    "Theresa May, the leader of the UK Conservative Party has pledged to create new internet that would be controlled and regulated by government on re-election. "

    https://yro.slashdot.org/story/17/05...olled-internet

    I think this plus the dementia tax and fracking could change everything. There are a lot of interesting comments on Slashdot. The Conservatives are making so many mistakes I think someone in the party doesn't want to win this election.
    May has always backed overly authoritative policing of the internet despite the mass collection of data becoming a weakness as terrorists become more reliant on lone-wolf attacks. That and absolute support for Trump's indication of further warfare will make the UK a more dangerous place.

  7. #7

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by lardy View Post
    There's probably a fairly big number of voters who 1) think it's possible for the government to control the internet and 2) think it's a good thing.
    ... or 3, the biggest constituent, couldn't care less.

  8. #8

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    I think they have actually run a decent campaign which is a surprise given that under Corbyn the party has lurched from crisis to crisis. However, if it did look remotely close I am sure the press have a few tricks up their sleeves for the final week.

    I think in most polls the Tories have benefited from a massive swing in support from UKIP to them but will l these people actually turn out on 3rd June?
    They'd have to be extremely committed to turn up to vote on that date.

  9. #9

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by Organ Morgan. View Post
    ... or 3, the biggest constituent, couldn't care less.
    There's no 3 because that biggest constituent, the ones who don't use or understand the internet, will only read rubbish in the papers about it and think it should be controlled. The internet is too big for people to not have an opinion, whether misinformed or not.

  10. #10

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by Organ Morgan. View Post
    They'd have to be extremely committed to turn up to vote on that date.
    Is this the bit where i claim it was auto correct?

  11. #11

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nelsonca61 View Post
    I think it will be far far closer than the polls suggest, although i have been flirting with voting PC, I have been impressed by Jezza this campaign and will prolly revert to type and go with Jezza.

    Less than 12 months ago 75% of Labour MPs voted that they had no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn to run the Labour Party so what makes you think that he can run the country?

  12. #12

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    May has clearly forgotten about why she claimed she called the election - ie to endorse Brexit.

    Her real purpose in calling it was of course to try to destroy Labour while Labour was weak.

    However she is now getting bitten on her scrawny arse because of her attacks on education , pensioners , the health service etc.

    I think she took too much for granted and hope she gets a lesson from the electorate.

  13. #13

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

    Not so sure it is a one off, other polls published this weekend also show slight drops in Tory support and Labour creeping to around or just above their 2015 election levels, but the Sunday Times poll is the only one taken after the launch of the Tory manifesto.

    I'm not expecting a Corbyn led Government or anything like that (polls have become pretty discredited in recent years and I have a lifetime's experience of them under estimating the size of the Conservative vote on polling day), but I do think our strong and stable leader made an error with those plans for how social care would be financed.
    Polls have generally underestimated Tory vote, but I wonder if, given Corbyn's overall perceived credibility, whether Labour might be the ones being underestimated in the polls, people saying they're backing the winning horse and all of that?

  14. #14

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    The shitstorm if the Conservatives don't win would be incredible

  15. #15

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by City123 View Post
    The shitstorm if the Conservatives don't win would be incredible
    What a reason to not vote for them!

  16. #16

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by Alfonso Perez View Post
    Less than 12 months ago 100% of Blairite Labour MPs voted that they had no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn to run the Labour Party so what makes you think that he can run the country?
    Aye

  17. #17
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    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by Alfonso Perez View Post
    Less than 12 months ago 75% of Labour MPs voted that they had no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn to run the Labour Party so what makes you think that he can run the country?
    Well, I don't think I said that I thought that he could run the Country however, next month either JC or TM will be running the country and it's not something i'm particularly looking forward too, based on the headline manifesto grabbers of Lab and Con, I take the view that TM is panning out to be one despicable human being, and that whilst JC and his mob at Labour no doubt will govern with chaos, it will be unintentional chaos, but with the interests of the have nots rooted in his thoughts, TM will shitting on the have nots intentionally, she's basically said it within her manifesto, unless everybody is/are only interested in themselves and how much more they can earn at the expense of others, I think it's a human thing to do, to rid this country of TM and the greed of those like her, whilst no different to many countries, the distribution of wealth in this country is shameful, how much wider will it get after another 5 years of TM and her cronies?.

  18. #18

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    What a reason to not vote for them!
    The Daily Mail would go into meltdown

  19. #19

    Re: Conspiracy Theory#1

    If it weren't for Brexit then it would be a much closer race. The "fear factor" of having Corbyn et al at the Brexit negotiating table is a major issue in this election and the Tories are milking this as much as they can.

  20. #20

    Re: Conspiracy Theory#1

    Quote Originally Posted by ninianclark View Post
    Remember back in 2008 and the infamous true note "there's no money left" and the Tories / Libs spent the next 5 years trying to reduce the deficit at the same as trying to increase growth, they reduced the deficit and unemployment but apart from that were hamstrung in trying to actually do anything. The next 5 years were pretty much the same, like having an alcoholic brother who drinks all your beer and then refuses to pay,

    Well maybe the Tories are getting their own back. They'll hand the country back to 'old' Labour - who are hell bent on spending every last penny in the hope of creating massive growth (when we want slow and steady growth), and handing the Brexit negotiations over to - someone in the Labour party (when all the experienced shadow ministers have resigned).

    Im hoping that's not the case - but it seems like some sort of cruel perverse schadenfreude - giving Labour the same sh1tty hand Labour gave them
    As opposed to strong and stable growth?

  21. #21

    Re: Conspiracy Theory#1

    Quote Originally Posted by ninianclark View Post
    Im hoping that's not the case - but it seems like some sort of cruel perverse schadenfreude - giving Labour the same sh1tty hand Labour gave them
    Is that the same shitty hand that The Conservatives backed? Did they not agree with Labour's spending plans when in opposition?

  22. #22

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    They did indeed Eric and as Mervyn King pointed out the financial collapse was not down to the Labour Government

  23. #23

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?


  24. #24

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    I think next set of opinion polls after the events in Manchester will see Tories regain some ground they've lost.

    The old strong and stable line will be wheeled out and I think people will prefer continuity.

  25. #25

    Re: Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

    You Gov are the polling company that is consistently having the Conservative lead at lower levels than their rivals and they seem to be keen to talk this latest one down themselves, but, a series of interviews carried out over a week produced findings that suggest there could be a hung Parliament - apparently the model used for this latest poll was consistently putting the leave side ahead this time last year at a time when most polls were saying remain would win.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40101566

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