Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

[the other bob wilson]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Not so sure it is a one off, other polls published this weekend also show slight drops in Tory support and Labour creeping to around or just above their 2015 election levels, but the Sunday Times poll is the only one taken after the launch of the Tory manifesto.

I'm not expecting a Corbyn led Government or anything like that (polls have become pretty discredited in recent years and I have a lifetime's experience of them under estimating the size of the Conservative vote on polling day), but I do think our strong and stable leader made an error with those plans for how social care would be financed.

[Heathblue]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Not so sure it is a one off, other polls published this weekend also show slight drops in Tory support and Labour creeping to around or just above their 2015 election levels, but the Sunday Times poll is the only one taken after the launch of the Tory manifesto.

I'm not expecting a Corbyn led Government or anything like that (polls have become pretty discredited in recent years and I have a lifetime's experience of them under estimating the size of the Conservative vote on polling day), but I do think our strong and stable leader made an error with those plans for how social care would be financed.

I think it will be far far closer than the polls suggest, although i have been flirting with voting PC, I have been impressed by Jezza this campaign and will prolly revert to type and go with Jezza.

[Eric Cartman]

I think it will be far far closer than the polls suggest, although i have been flirting with voting PC, I have been impressed by Jezza this campaign and will prolly revert to type and go with Jezza.

I think they have actually run a decent campaign which is a surprise given that under Corbyn the party has lurched from crisis to crisis. However, if it did look remotely close I am sure the press have a few tricks up their sleeves for the final week.

I think in most polls the Tories have benefited from a massive swing in support from UKIP to them but will these people actually turn out on 3rd June?

[David Vincent]

"Theresa May, the leader of the UK Conservative Party has pledged to create new internet that would be controlled and regulated by government on re-election. "

https://yro.slashdot.org/story/17/05...olled-internet

I think this plus the dementia tax and fracking could change everything. There are a lot of interesting comments on Slashdot. The Conservatives are making so many mistakes I think someone in the party doesn't want to win this election.

[lardy]

"Theresa May, the leader of the UK Conservative Party has pledged to create new internet that would be controlled and regulated by government on re-election. "

https://yro.slashdot.org/story/17/05...olled-internet

I think this plus the dementia tax and fracking could change everything. There are a lot of interesting comments on Slashdot. The Conservatives are making so many mistakes I think someone in the party doesn't want to win this election.

There's probably a fairly big number of voters who 1) think it's possible for the government to control the internet and 2) think it's a good thing.

[Organ Morgan.]

There's probably a fairly big number of voters who 1) think it's possible for the government to control the internet and 2) think it's a good thing.

... or 3, the biggest constituent, couldn't care less.

[surge]

"Theresa May, the leader of the UK Conservative Party has pledged to create new internet that would be controlled and regulated by government on re-election. "

https://yro.slashdot.org/story/17/05...olled-internet

I think this plus the dementia tax and fracking could change everything. There are a lot of interesting comments on Slashdot. The Conservatives are making so many mistakes I think someone in the party doesn't want to win this election.

May has always backed overly authoritative policing of the internet despite the mass collection of data becoming a weakness as terrorists become more reliant on lone-wolf attacks. That and absolute support for Trump's indication of further warfare will make the UK a more dangerous place.

[Organ Morgan.]

I think they have actually run a decent campaign which is a surprise given that under Corbyn the party has lurched from crisis to crisis. However, if it did look remotely close I am sure the press have a few tricks up their sleeves for the final week.

I think in most polls the Tories have benefited from a massive swing in support from UKIP to them but will l these people actually turn out on 3rd June?

They'd have to be extremely committed to turn up to vote on that date.

[Eric Cartman]

They'd have to be extremely committed to turn up to vote on that date.

Is this the bit where i claim it was auto correct?

[Alfonso Perez]

I think it will be far far closer than the polls suggest, although i have been flirting with voting PC, I have been impressed by Jezza this campaign and will prolly revert to type and go with Jezza.

Less than 12 months ago 75% of Labour MPs voted that they had no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn to run the Labour Party so what makes you think that he can run the country?

[BlueWales]

May has clearly forgotten about why she claimed she called the election - ie to endorse Brexit.

Her real purpose in calling it was of course to try to destroy Labour while Labour was weak.

However she is now getting bitten on her scrawny arse because of her attacks on education , pensioners , the health service etc.

I think she took too much for granted and hope she gets a lesson from the electorate.

[Wales-Bales]

Less than 12 months ago 100% of Blairite Labour MPs voted that they had no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn to run the Labour Party so what makes you think that he can run the country?

Aye

[Heathblue]

Less than 12 months ago 75% of Labour MPs voted that they had no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn to run the Labour Party so what makes you think that he can run the country?

Well, I don't think I said that I thought that he could run the Country however, next month either JC or TM will be running the country and it's not something i'm particularly looking forward too, based on the headline manifesto grabbers of Lab and Con, I take the view that TM is panning out to be one despicable human being, and that whilst JC and his mob at Labour no doubt will govern with chaos, it will be unintentional chaos, but with the interests of the have nots rooted in his thoughts, TM will shitting on the have nots intentionally, she's basically said it within her manifesto, unless everybody is/are only interested in themselves and how much more they can earn at the expense of others, I think it's a human thing to do, to rid this country of TM and the greed of those like her, whilst no different to many countries, the distribution of wealth in this country is shameful, how much wider will it get after another 5 years of TM and her cronies?.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Not so sure it is a one off, other polls published this weekend also show slight drops in Tory support and Labour creeping to around or just above their 2015 election levels, but the Sunday Times poll is the only one taken after the launch of the Tory manifesto.

I'm not expecting a Corbyn led Government or anything like that (polls have become pretty discredited in recent years and I have a lifetime's experience of them under estimating the size of the Conservative vote on polling day), but I do think our strong and stable leader made an error with those plans for how social care would be financed.

Polls have generally underestimated Tory vote, but I wonder if, given Corbyn's overall perceived credibility, whether Labour might be the ones being underestimated in the polls, people saying they're backing the winning horse and all of that?

[City123]

The shitstorm if the Conservatives don't win would be incredible

[Eric the Half a Bee]

The shitstorm if the Conservatives don't win would be incredible

What a reason to not vote for them!

[City123]

What a reason to not vote for them!

The Daily Mail would go into meltdown

[Pearcey3]

They did indeed Eric and as Mervyn King pointed out the financial collapse was not down to the Labour Government

[the other bob wilson]

Hmmm

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/25...-regaining-it/

[CardiffIrish2]

Hmmm


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/25...-regaining-it/

I think next set of opinion polls after the events in Manchester will see Tories regain some ground they've lost.

The old strong and stable line will be wheeled out and I think people will prefer continuity.

[Wales-Bales]

I think next set of opinion polls after the events in Manchester will see Tories regain some ground they've lost.

The old strong and stable line will be wheeled out and I think people will prefer continuity.

They need to keep it in the news if they possibly can.

[the other bob wilson]

You Gov are the polling company that is consistently having the Conservative lead at lower levels than their rivals and they seem to be keen to talk this latest one down themselves, but, a series of interviews carried out over a week produced findings that suggest there could be a hung Parliament - apparently the model used for this latest poll was consistently putting the leave side ahead this time last year at a time when most polls were saying remain would win.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40101566

[CardiffIrish2]

You Gov are the polling company that is consistently having the Conservative lead at lower levels than their rivals and they seem to be keen to talk this latest one down themselves, but, a series of interviews carried out over a week produced findings that suggest there could be a hung Parliament - apparently the model used for this latest poll was consistently putting the leave side ahead this time last year at a time when most polls were saying remain would win.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40101566

I still think the Tories will get a comfortable
Majority but it it's making them squirm then this is great.

As I've said in another thread of Boris Johnson's performance is anything to go by they appear to be rattled.

[Feedback]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Not so sure it is a one off, other polls published this weekend also show slight drops in Tory support and Labour creeping to around or just above their 2015 election levels, but the Sunday Times poll is the only one taken after the launch of the Tory manifesto.

I'm not expecting a Corbyn led Government or anything like that (polls have become pretty discredited in recent years and I have a lifetime's experience of them under estimating the size of the Conservative vote on polling day), but I do think our strong and stable leader made an error with those plans for how social care would be financed.

if we have learned one thing in recent times, is that polls aren't a good indicator of what the actual outcome will be. There are too many factors to consider, including the perennial 'shy Tory' syndrome.

If we look at the 2015 election, we clearly see UKIP secure 4m votes, however a fair proportion of these were voting for a 2nd place candidate. One of the conclusions here is that UKIP became the party of choice for the protest vote replacing the LibDems. We also had a swing from Labour to UKIP in traditionally Labour strongholds. Since that time we have had the referendum which has effectively removed the raison d'etre for UKIP, meaning that the 2015 UKIP voters, thinking that Brexit is secured, may return back to Labour in droves.

The irony here is that only the Tory party are promising full on Brexit and any 2015 UKIP voter thinking of switching would be better voting for the Tory party, but the feeling is that given the lifelong animosity held by some towards the Tories makes me wonder if they can go against something that is so deeply ingrained within their psyche.