Election getting interesting or just a rogue poll?

[Wales-Bales]

I think next set of opinion polls after the events in Manchester will see Tories regain some ground they've lost.

The old strong and stable line will be wheeled out and I think people will prefer continuity.

They need to keep it in the news if they possibly can.

[CardiffIrish2]

You Gov are the polling company that is consistently having the Conservative lead at lower levels than their rivals and they seem to be keen to talk this latest one down themselves, but, a series of interviews carried out over a week produced findings that suggest there could be a hung Parliament - apparently the model used for this latest poll was consistently putting the leave side ahead this time last year at a time when most polls were saying remain would win.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40101566

I still think the Tories will get a comfortable
Majority but it it's making them squirm then this is great.

As I've said in another thread of Boris Johnson's performance is anything to go by they appear to be rattled.

[Feedback]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Not so sure it is a one off, other polls published this weekend also show slight drops in Tory support and Labour creeping to around or just above their 2015 election levels, but the Sunday Times poll is the only one taken after the launch of the Tory manifesto.

I'm not expecting a Corbyn led Government or anything like that (polls have become pretty discredited in recent years and I have a lifetime's experience of them under estimating the size of the Conservative vote on polling day), but I do think our strong and stable leader made an error with those plans for how social care would be financed.

if we have learned one thing in recent times, is that polls aren't a good indicator of what the actual outcome will be. There are too many factors to consider, including the perennial 'shy Tory' syndrome.

If we look at the 2015 election, we clearly see UKIP secure 4m votes, however a fair proportion of these were voting for a 2nd place candidate. One of the conclusions here is that UKIP became the party of choice for the protest vote replacing the LibDems. We also had a swing from Labour to UKIP in traditionally Labour strongholds. Since that time we have had the referendum which has effectively removed the raison d'etre for UKIP, meaning that the 2015 UKIP voters, thinking that Brexit is secured, may return back to Labour in droves.

The irony here is that only the Tory party are promising full on Brexit and any 2015 UKIP voter thinking of switching would be better voting for the Tory party, but the feeling is that given the lifelong animosity held by some towards the Tories makes me wonder if they can go against something that is so deeply ingrained within their psyche.