Firstly, Wales need to win their last 3 games to guarantee 2nd place. That would put them on 20 points. Here's a look at who they might catch.

Group A - France look likely winners with two easy home games, so 2nd place is between Sweden, Bulgaria and The Netherlands (13, 12 and 10 points respectively). All could hinge on Sweden and Bulgaria both playing in Amsterdam while Bulgaria have a home tie against France, too. The Netherlands vs Sweden is the last fixture in the group, so unless Sweden win that and all of their remaining games, the runner-up in group A will have a maximum of 20 points.

Group B - Between Switzerland and Portugal. No chance of catching the runner up.

Group C - Almost certain Germany will win the group, Northern Ireland highly likely runner up. Currently Norn Ireland have 16 points but host both Germany and the Czech Republic, while they also travel to Norway. Getting 5 points to finish on 21 points from those fixtures is no gimme.

Group E - Between Poland, Montenegro and Denmark (16, 13 and 13 points respectively). Poland have a better run-in, Montenegro host Denmark and travel to Poland in their last two fixtures. Assuming Poland win the group (they play the bottom two sides next), it would be a big surprise if either Montenegro or Denmark win all of their remaining fixtures, so there's every chance the runner-up in group E will have no more than 20 points.

Group F - Pretty much sorted between England and Slovakia, although Slovakia travel to both England and Scotland. I'd expect England to win that one and, if Scotland can beat Slovakia too, the runner up in this group won't have more than 20 points.

Group G - Between Spain and Italy, runner-up here is probably uncatchable.

Group H - Virtually won by Belgium, 2nd place is between Greece, Bosnia and possibly Cyprus (13, 11 and 10 points respectively). Greece host Belgium tonight, Bosnia host Belgium in the last round of matches, so barring unlikely Belgian defeats, the runner up here won't have more than 20 points.

Group I - A 4-way tussle between Croatia, Ukraine, Iceland and Turkey (16, 14, 13 and 11 points respectively). Croatia travel to Turkey and Ukraine, Iceland host Ukraine while Turkey host Iceland. Goodness knows what's likely to happen here, difficult to see any team winning their last 3 games, so again there's a possibility that the runner up of group I will have no more than 20 points.

Results against the team finishing bottom aren't taken into account, but it's worth noting that only Poland, of all the teams that have any reasonable chance of qualifying, are the only team to have dropped any points against any of the current bottom teams. Group A might get a bit messy with Luxembourg and Belarus trying not to finish bottom (would affect Bulgaria so far who lost to Belarus), Georgia's point against us could help us if somehow Moldova could win a game (not Tuesday) and not finish bottom.

Of course, all this becomes irrelevant if we fail to win our last 3 games. Anyone fancy a last minute penalty against the Republic?