Reply With Quote2 wins will be enough, however I think we’ll end up with 2 draws.
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A recap ahead of this weekend's double header. I'm making the assumption that Moldova finish bottom of our group.
Group A
Fixtures of note:
Saturday: Bulgaria - France, Sweden - Luxembourg, Belarus - Netherlands
Tuesday: France - Belarus, Netherlands - Sweden, Luxembourg - Bulgaria
Following France's surprise 0-0 at home to Luxembourg, 4 teams are still in with a shout of the top 2 positions. France are still favourites, though defeat in Bulgaria would open things right out - Bulgaria have a 100% home record, though have lost all their away games. Assuming Sweden and The Netherlands both win on Saturday, next Tuesday could be a winner takes all. Currently the Dutch are -6 goal difference worse off, a gap they can't afford to widen on Saturday. Sweden might even be in a position to win the group.
How does it affect Wales?
Sweden or Netherlands to finish second, or Hungary finish second, win in Belarus and Belarus finish bottom. At present both have a 100% record against Belarus and Luxembourg. France have dropped points against both.
If Sweden and France win both their games then Wales won't be able to catch 2nd place with 2 wins. France are uncatchable unless they fail to win both of their last two. If Sweden fail to win in Holland, Wales would overtake Sweden with 2 wins. 2 Welsh wins would see them placed above the Netherlands if they finished 2nd.
Group C
Fixtures of note:
Tuesday: Portugal - Switzerland
Barring a unexpected result on Saturday involving Portugal, this will be the group decider. Portugal, in 2nd, have a significant advantage in terms of goal difference and only need a win.
How does it affect Wales?
It doesn't in reality. Wales could only catch Portugal if they win their last two games, Portugal lose in Andorra and Latvia win their last two games (the last being against Andorra).
Group C
Fixtures of note:
Thursday: Northern Ireland - Germany
Sunday: Norway - Northern Ireland, Germany - Azerbaijan
Germany need a point at home to Azerbaijan regardless of any result in Belfast. Northern Ireland currently have 19 points and will finish 2nd bar some extraordinary results.
How does it affect Wales?
It probably doesn't. Northern Ireland uncatchable unless they lose both their last two games.
A point in Norway should be enough to make them uncatchable.
Group E
Fixtures of note:
Thursday: Montenegro - Denmark, Armenia - Poland
Sunday: Poland - Montenegro, Denmark - Romania
There's a 3-way tussle for qualification here. Poland lead with 19 points and have home advantage in their last game. Montenegro play both rival countries for qualification. The losers of the Montenegro - Denmark tie are virtually eliminated; a draw coupled with a win in Armenia would see Poland win the group. On Sunday, providing Poland haven't slipped up in Armenia, a point against Montenegro wins the group. If Poland fail to win, the group is thrown wide open.
How does it affect Wales?
If Poland somehow finish 2nd, then their draw at bottom country, Kazakhstan, means Wales couldn't catch them. A draw between Montenegro and Denmark would mean Wales could catch both by winning their last two games, though goal difference makes this unlikely. Assuming Denmark beat Romania in their last match, a Montenegro win over Denmark would be ok, but would need Poland to beat them on Sunday.
Group F
Fixtures of note:
Thursday: Scotland - Slovakia, England - Slovenia
Sunday: Slovenia - Scotland, Slovakia - Malta
England have all but won the group. Slovakia guarantee second with a win in Scotland and an English win over Slovenia tomorrow. A draw in Glasgow and presuming Slovenia don't win in Wembley, there'll be lots of interesting permutations going into the last round of games. A Scottish win over Slovakia (and Slovenia not beating England) puts Scotland in with a chance of qualifying for the first time since colour telly was introduced.
How does it affect Wales?
If Slovenia win their last two games, Wales cannot catch them. Should Slovenia draw or lose to England, then whoever finishes second in the group can be caught by Wales. There's even a possibility that 2nd place might have 18 points, and Wales could even catch 2nd in this group with a win and a draw. All sides have 100% records against the bottom team.
Group G
Fixtures of note:
None really
Spain, barring a collapse, will win the group. Italy second.
How does it affect Wales?
It won't.
Group H
Fixtures of note:
Saturday: Bosnia - Belgium, Cyprus - Greece
Tuesday: Belgium - Cyprus, Estonia - Bosnia, Greece - Gibraltar
With Belgium having already qualified, there's a three way tussle for 2nd spot. Bosnia, on 14 points, are currently second, but host Belgium next. Greece might be seen as favourites if they can avoid defeat in Cyprus. Cyprus need to win both of their remaining games.
How does it affect Wales?
If, somehow, Cyprus finish 2nd, Wales only need a win to finish above them in the table. Two wins for Bosnia would mean Wales would be unlikely to catch them on goal difference. If Greece fail to win one of their last games and Bosnia fail to win both, Wales could possibly catch either with a win and a draw.
Group I
Fixtures of note:
Friday: Croatia - Finland, Kosovo - Ukraine, Turkey - Iceland
Monday: Finland - Turkey, Iceland - Kosovo, Ukraine - Croatia
Where do I start? 4 teams can still win the group, 2 will miss out completely. Croatia and Iceland both have 16 points, Turkey and Ukraine have 14. Nobody can win the group on Friday. Turkey need a point against Iceland or they'll be out if Croatia also win. Ukraine go to Kosovo and will be expected to win. Ukraine - Croatia could decide the group winners.
How does it affect Wales?
The only way 2nd place in this group would be out of reach for Wales is if both Croatia and Iceland win both of their matches - a tough act for both. 2nd place is likely to have 19/20 points - the way the fixtures have been arranged, there are only 2 head-to-head matches between teams in the top 4, so less opportunity for teams to take points off each other, unlike groups E and F.
In summary, 2 wins for Wales will virtually assure us of finishing as one of the top 8 2nd placed teams. With the situations as they are in Groups F and H, a win and a draw might even be enough if results went our way.
2 wins will be enough, however I think we’ll end up with 2 draws.
That would be some achievement to go through the qualifiers unbeaten, albeit unsuccessfully....Originally Posted by Toadstool
Groups c e & f play tomorrow whereas we play on Friday.
And the groups a b & h play after us.
So it could be that even if we win one and draw one, we won’t know we are in the payoffs or not till the day after.
Which highlights the incompetence of the people running football.
How can you have a situation where a team goes into a final match knowing a point will be enough to secure a play off spot purely because other groups have finished?
Edit: while I'm moaning, am I right in thinking that we kick off at 5 on Friday, while the Irish kick off once we're done?
If so, how can right be right?
And don't even get me started on the justification of a 5pm kickoff on a Friday.......
I think it's a possibility that Serbia might only take 1 or 2 points from their last 2 games. If that happens 2 wins qualifies us automatically.
We have to go all out to win these games even without Bale. I can see us doing that in Georgia but then being over cautious against ROI and blowing it
I wouldn’t underestimate Georgia, then have had some credible results recently and will be trying to ensure they don’t finish bottom
All of Georgia's home fixtures have kicked off at the same time.
I can't ever recall all final fixtures from every single group taking place at the same time.
The role was reversed last time out, when the Irish match was played before ours, presumably for TV purposes. Last time it worked in our favour. If we get a win, the Irish will be under serious pressure to get a result at home to Moldova.
Bump - Just saying!
Especially if we know we only need a point to guarantee being one of the top 8 runners up.
And should Serbia completely lose their bottle and lose then a draw could see us win the group!
Would be extraordinary, but aye. Sounds good.
They'd have to lose by 2 though
Easy...
Maybe the justification might be that it's 8 PM in Geogia?? World football isn't run to suit UK time.
It needed saying
The game would have finished at 12:40am if they kicked off the same time as Ireland. Then, the Welsh players would have had to stay overnight in Tblisi, travelling back in the early hours of today. All the games kick off at the same time in the last round - which is when it really matters.
Well it bloody well should! We invented it !
I really think some people dont even know there is a playoff system.
The way people were ringing into radio shows last night it is as if they think we'll go through monday night by coming 2nd
I hate being favourites
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