Pretty much.
A draw in Glasgow would be ideal, assuming Slovenia fail to beat England, as 2nd place could only have 19 points.
A Scotland win wouldn't be too bad for us, providing Slovenia get something from their trip to Wembley. If Scotland win, a point for Slovenia is preferable (and maybe a possibility given their miserly defence), or they'd have nothing to play for against Scotland in the last game as Slovakia, who would still be a point ahead, face Malta.
A Slovakian win would be the worst result as they would almost certainly see them finish second with 21 points, which would be out of our reach.