The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country

[Eric the Half a Bee]

As things stand, here's a table showing the current rankings of every team that could finish second in their groups (group, played, country, points, goal difference):

1 B 6 Switzerland 18 11
2 E 7 Poland 18 9
3 A 7 France 16 10
4 I 8 Iceland 16 6
5 B 6 Portugal 15 18
6 G 7 Italy 14 3
7 E 7 Denmark 13 7
8 C 7 Northern Ireland 13 5
9 E 7 Montenegro 13 2
10 F 8 Slovakia 12 5
11 D 7 Serbia 12 3
12 D 7 Wales 11 2
13 I 7 Croatia 11 2
14 I 7 Ukraine 11 1
15 F 7 Scotland 11 -1
16 A 6 Sweden 10 3
17 H 7 Greece 10 3
18 A 7 Netherlands 10 2
19 D 7 Republic of Ireland 10 1
20 A 6 Bulgaria 9 -4
21 F 7 Slovenia 8 2
22 H 6 Bosnia 8 2
23 H 6 Cyprus 4 -7


This is taken from results against the current bottom team in each group. In groups A and B, the team that will finish bottom is unclear, but it makes little difference, except if Bulgaria were to finish 2nd in group A.

Providing Wales beat Ireland, they cannot be caught by Greece, Slovenia, Netherlands or Cyprus - of these Greece are strong candidates to finish second, Netherlands have a chance but have to beat Sweden in their last game. Slovenia are unlikely to finish second as Slovakia host Malta while Cyprus need lots of results to go their way. Also, if Luxembourg finish bottom of group A, Hungary couldn't catch Wales. Scotland would be unlikely to catch Wales barring a victory by 3 more goals than Wales manage.

If Wales only draw with Ireland, we could only guarantee finishing above Slovenia and Cyprus - neither are likely to finish second. If Greece and Bosnia both slip up tonight, then a point would be enough against Ireland. A point would also suffice if Croatia and Ukraine draw (by a similar scoreline or a lower scoring draw). Not sure what would happen if we draw with Ireland and Croatia and Ukraine draw and score 1 more goal each (so 0-0 with us, 1-1 there) as that would mean we'd be level on points, goal difference and goals scored with Croatia. Otherwise, a draw with Ireland means elimination.

[Hilts]

What a stupid system.

So - is a draw likely to get us 2nd?

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Edit - Slovakia couldn't catch Wales, either. Missed that out.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

What a stupid system.

So - is a draw likely to get us 2nd?

Likely? Well, it's possible. We'll know more tonight. If Bosnia and Greece both fail to win, a draw would be fine regardless of the Ukraine-Croatia result. Otherwise, a draw would only suffice if Ukraine-Croatia is a draw as well.

[El Gwapo]

If we draw and Serbia lose, wouldnt we still win the group on goal diff?

[MacAdder]

What a stupid system.

So - is a draw likely to get us 2nd?

Yes, and a play off spot, according to the all-knowing Sky...

http://www.skysports.com/football/ne...n-over-georgia

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Yes, and a play off spot, according to the all-knowing Sky...

http://www.skysports.com/football/ne...n-over-georgia

Whoops!!

[Eric the Half a Bee]

If we draw and Serbia lose, wouldnt we still win the group on goal diff?

Yes, providing Serbia lose by 2 or more, or we draw 7-7 and Serbia don't score.

[El Gwapo]

Yes, providing Serbia lose by 2 or more, or we draw 7-7 and Serbia don't score.

Ah ok cheers. Scenario 1 is unlikely, scenario 2 is well beyond even a Welsh qualifying campaign

[MacAdder]

Yes, providing Serbia lose by 2 or more, or we draw 7-7 and Serbia don't score.

What if....

Ah feck it, roll on Tuesday!!

[Eric the Half a Bee]

scenario 2 is well beyond even a Welsh qualifying campaign

[blue matt]

As things stand, here's a table showing the current rankings of every team that could finish second in their groups (group, played, country, points, goal difference):

1 B 6 Switzerland 18 11
2 E 7 Poland 18 9
3 A 7 France 16 10
4 I 8 Iceland 16 6
5 B 6 Portugal 15 18
6 G 7 Italy 14 3
7 E 7 Denmark 13 7
8 C 7 Northern Ireland 13 5
9 E 7 Montenegro 13 2
10 F 8 Slovakia 12 5
11 D 7 Serbia 12 3
12 D 7 Wales 11 2
13 I 7 Croatia 11 2
14 I 7 Ukraine 11 1
15 F 7 Scotland 11 -1
16 A 6 Sweden 10 3
17 H 7 Greece 10 3
18 A 7 Netherlands 10 2
19 D 7 Republic of Ireland 10 1
20 A 6 Bulgaria 9 -4
21 F 7 Slovenia 8 2
22 H 6 Bosnia 8 2
23 H 6 Cyprus 4 -7


This is taken from results against the current bottom team in each group. In groups A and B, the team that will finish bottom is unclear, but it makes little difference, except if Bulgaria were to finish 2nd in group A.

Providing Wales beat Ireland, they cannot be caught by Greece, Slovenia, Netherlands or Cyprus - of these Greece are strong candidates to finish second, Netherlands have a chance but have to beat Sweden in their last game. Slovenia are unlikely to finish second as Slovakia host Malta while Cyprus need lots of results to go their way. Also, if Luxembourg finish bottom of group A, Hungary couldn't catch Wales. Scotland would be unlikely to catch Wales barring a victory by 3 more goals than Wales manage.

If Wales only draw with Ireland, we could only guarantee finishing above Slovenia and Cyprus - neither are likely to finish second. If Greece and Bosnia both slip up tonight, then a point would be enough against Ireland. A point would also suffice if Croatia and Ukraine draw (by a similar scoreline or a lower scoring draw). Not sure what would happen if we draw with Ireland and Croatia and Ukraine draw and score 1 more goal each (so 0-0 with us, 1-1 there) as that would mean we'd be level on points, goal difference and goals scored with Croatia. Otherwise, a draw with Ireland means elimination.

you are enjoying this arent you

I get the feeling it appeals to some " maths thing " you have going on

[Eric the Half a Bee]

you are enjoying this arent you

I get the feeling it appeals to some " maths thing " you have going on

Yes!

[William Treseder]

Yes!

Well done Eric for your constant updates. I have smoke coming out of my ears even reading your figures, never mind trying to work all that out myself! Lol!

[Pearcey3]

As things stand we really need another favour from Cyprus. We need them to hold Greece. We would then only need to draw on Monday. As it stands it looks like we will need to beat Ireland

[blue matt]

Yes!

[Eric the Half a Bee]

As things stand we really need another favour from Cyprus. We need them to hold Greece. We would then only need to draw on Monday. As it stands it looks like we will need to beat Ireland

Yes, or Ukraine and Croatia draw on Monday night.

[Pearcey3]

Yes, or Ukraine and Croatia draw on Monday night.

Eric. There is no way that will end in a draw. We will not be that lucky. It’s down to Cyprus.

[lazbian]

how is our goal difference 2?

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Eric. There is no way that will end in a draw. We will not be that lucky. It’s down to Cyprus.

I think you're right. Just mentioning as a statistical possibility.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

how is our goal difference 2?

Take away the Moldova results. We've been beaten Austria and Georgia by a solitary goal.

[Baloo]

As things stand we really need another favour from Cyprus. We need them to hold Greece. We would then only need to draw on Monday. As it stands it looks like we will need to beat Ireland

I now kind of hope we need to win it tbh. We can win the group with 3 points too and I'd like to see us go for it. We're at home and I think we're a better team so would like try try and get it done and dusted on Monday.

[Pearcey3]

I now kind of hope we need to win it tbh. We can win the group with 3 points too and I'd like to see us go for it. We're at home and I think we're a better team so would like try try and get it done and dusted on Monday.

I have a horrible feeling we will draw on Monday night and go through the entire campaign unbeaten having never been behind in any game which I suspect will be a record. Slovakia will pip us to the final play off place.

[lazbian]

Take away the Moldova results. We've been beaten Austria and Georgia by a solitary goal.

realised that after i wrote it

[gronovic]

I have a horrible feeling we will draw on Monday night and go through the entire campaign unbeaten having never been behind in any game which I suspect will be a record. Slovakia will pip us to the final play off place.

Can that happen, this format is spinning me out, Slovakia are playing Malta who are bottom, can’t they not overtake us as the are playing the bottom team in their group