Trump on Brexit

[cyril evans awaydays]

Of course tariffs are not the only variable in this equation. Post Brexit we have carried a 15-20% devaluation in sterling, equivalent or greater than many WTO tariffs. This has benefitted our exporters and our post-vote economy. Interesting that German car manufacturing and sales to the UK during this period have remained remarkably robust though. Of course if we move to WTO rules then there could be a further fall in sterling which could compensate for the new tariffs on our exporters and add further to German costs. Then again if Liam Fox is correct and we are able to negotiate such fantastic quick deals with the rest of the world then sterling could soar.

Our overall negotiating position of course is not just driven by goods but also services which is the largest part of the economy. There the financial sectors of Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and Luxemburg may only see opportunity not risk if the UK is unable to negotiate a deal that includes passporting rights. That and the Irish border are the very weak cards in our hand.

[cyril evans awaydays]

Agree totally - services make up a large proportion of our exports (as does gold transactions - even though it never leaves the bank of England)

I have a friend who works for a bank - they have taken precautions on passporting already - which mean some jobs going overseas.
Even though the bulk of the work will remain here.

Still lots of scenarios to play out

Have a read here though - one of many backdoors that will open up
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/estonia-e-resident

You can become a resident of Estonia (done electronically) and start your own business in the EU, or run your existing UK business through Estonia , you then become an EU business.

Interesting read that. I am not sure whether Goldman Sachs and Morgan Grenfell would fit down this route but I am currently on a contract being paid in euros and I wish I had researched this before I set up my accounts!

Further anecdotal evidence from a German ex-colleague who has a friend working in the Frankfurt Commercial Property sector who has seen a surge in retainers being placed on vacant office space there. I would not extrapolate that out to claim that Brexit will be a catastrophe but every little probably doesn't help here!