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Thread: Lies, damn lies and statistics...

  1. #1

    Lies, damn lies and statistics...

    Interesting what the stats say about probabilities for the results in this midweek round of matches:

    https://experimental361.com/2018/02/...0-21-feb-2018/

    The only game that really went against the form guide was the Barnsley game so far. The stats also have us down as the only side more likely to win away from home - let's hope that's correct tomorrow...

  2. #2

    Re: Lies, damn lies and statistics...

    Didn't the Echo used to get a statistician from Cardiff Uni to predict our run in?

  3. #3

    Re: Lies, damn lies and statistics...

    I would have had Fulham to beat the Wurzels

  4. #4

    Re: Lies, damn lies and statistics...

    Quote Originally Posted by Penarth Blues View Post
    Interesting what the stats say about probabilities for the results in this midweek round of matches:

    https://experimental361.com/2018/02/...0-21-feb-2018/

    The only game that really went against the form guide was the Barnsley game so far. The stats also have us down as the only side more likely to win away from home - let's hope that's correct tomorrow...
    That prediction is based on xG, which Ipswich have consistently outperformed all season long. Either they've been very lucky, or they're doing something that the xG calculation isn't considering.

    This site uses shot position, but doesnt take into account defender positions, so a very organised defence can marginally outperform xG, or breaking away can give you slightly better chances than the xG suggests.
    You can do more interesting things when you include player tracking, but that data isn't available for the championship.

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