Reply With QuoteIsn't there some statistical study (lies, damn lies and statistics) which suggests that a team rarely improves significantly after a change of manager besides the initial bump? We may have had the bump under Warnock.
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Today, on the way to my daily grind, I logged in for a quick peep of the WalesOnline website to touch base with the local sport punditry. What particularly caught my eye today was the tripe produced by Dominic Booth and the article by Phil Smith.
I could possibly nominate their scribblings for some of the worst football journalism I have witnessed in my 40 or so years on this planet, but I am far too polite to say it (arf arf). I know little of their age or experience but I can only surmise that by their article quality they must be young journalists trying to create a sensationalist name for themselves. Or perhaps George Osborne's recent rise in the living wage has attracted new cheap labour into the journalism market.
Whatever the explanations I do wonder why they are devoting so much time to negative commentary. Booth suggested that (after barely two months) that Cardiff City are genuine relegation prospects. Or that they are not seeing any defensive improvements, to quote the analysis-phobic Mr Smith. None of this stuff works straight away under a new manager. If it does it is usually quite patchy. Experience tells any football fan that. They mention our last four games form, whilst gleefully ignoring the quality of our opponents. Bizarre.
Allow me to put it my way. In the first seven games with Mr Warnock in charge we have collected about 50 per cent of our possible points. That is the sort of points average to propel us to the top eight. He has dramatically altered our points per game compared to the previous Trollope and that was with a few signings under a short time pressure. As his systems beds down and with more players signed in January we will only improve.
I will openly state my prediction. In his first full season in charge Warnock will take us from this lowly position and take us to a top eight finish. No problem. I only see reasons for optimism ahead.
Isn't there some statistical study (lies, damn lies and statistics) which suggests that a team rarely improves significantly after a change of manager besides the initial bump? We may have had the bump under Warnock.
I don't think that's the case. In the games I have seen we have posed more of threat than we have going forward for years.Originally Posted by surge
We are still making mistakes but we'll iron them out in my opinion.
The most pleasing thing for me is that Warnock seems to have identified where we are weak and will identify those areas in January.
I must agree with him mind when he asked where would be without Bamba and Hoilett!
They have been outstanding and Hoilett looks like our best player by a country mile in my opinion.
I'm not sure which Phil Smith article upset you, but in my opinion he has been a breath of fresh air at Wales Online and is fast becoming a very good football journalist with a growing reputation. My guess is that he is in his late 20s, and he is a Sunderland fan. Most of his articles seem to me to be informed, well researched and insightful. He is a million miles away from the sloppy, self-indulgent clowning that we used to get with Steve Tucker. He has also made Nathan Blake raise his game on the Bootroom (now only produced as an audio podcast) and it is a 'must listen' as far as I'm concerned. I'm not impressed with Dominic Booth, though. He seems to be one of a small stable of scribblers who fill web pages with 'click bait' pieces that add little or nothing to our knowledge or understanding of the club and team.
As to our prospects for the season, I still hope we will end up in the top half. Performances have been much better under Warnock and the team is now competitive despite the obvious weaknesses. We are certainly in a relegation battle at the moment, but I'm confident he will get us out of it - and maybe we'll see a real push in the second half of the season (after the January window) that will lay the groundwork for a better campaign next year. However, I don't see us troubling the play off spots and I worry about the idea that employing Warnock would automatically produce a rise up the table without blood, sweat and tears - and bad spells as far as results go like the last few weeks.
10 out of 21 isn't quite 50%. It's not quite 48%. Possibly a slight difference, but important if you're trying to make a point.
If we were to replicate our form under Warnock we'll reach 58 points by the end of the season. In the last few seasons that would have meant finishing in 15th, 15th, 16th, 20th and 18th. Even a 50% points tally would only give us 60 points, not enough for a top half finish.
68 points is the bare minimum for a top 8 finish. That means we need a points per game average of 1.79 from now until the end of the season. That's the equivalent of 85 points over the course of a full season, which is close to automatic promotion form.
If you think we're capable of that between now and May, then keep smoking whatever you enjoy. As you also allude to, we need signings in January. Given we have at least 7 games before we realistically see any further additions to the squad, and our form will likely dip until then, a top 8 finish will most likely mean needing to find Championship winning form from January.
Keep going with your positivity. It's not built on any semblance of reality but it's entertaining nonetheless.
Other than the Wigan game, which we should have had at least a point from, I think we've done as well as anyone could have hoped for in reality. We are now competitive again and starting to find our own rhythm in terms of attacking play and confidence.
We are already far removed from the teams I have watched over the last few years in terms of being more entertaining to watch. I hope we don't go down this year but this league is relentless and unpredictable. Unfortunately we're in the wrong position right now and everyone will target us for 3 points based on where we are - which makes it more difficult still.
My gut feeling is we'll have enough to stay up now, but it is going to be tight until the end of the season. It won't be boring though!
There we have it chaps. Not a bad prediction way back in 2016 was it?
Wachu been smokin bruv
You should have been a little more ambitious 😂
OK I'll give you that one
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