After 34 games - a look at seasons gone by

[Eric the Half a Bee]

All of my post is based on looking back at the last 20 Championship seasons.

69 points from 34 games is an impressive feat. It's one point less than we had in our Championship winning season. Every side that has had 69 points or more at this point in the season over the last 2 decades has won automatic promotion. The highest number of points a team has had after 34 games and failed to win promotion is 66, achieved by Ipswich in 2004/05. Bolton failed to win automatic promotion in 2000/01 after winning 66 points at this stage but they comfortably won the playoffs. Derby in 2014/15 are the highest profile chokers, winning 65 points after 34 games but mustered only another 12, finishing in 8th.

Of the 20 sides in second place at this point in the season, only Sheffield United in 2005/06 and Brighton last season have better records than ours. Similarly, Villa's 65 points in 3rd is amongst the best record for a team in 3rd at this point in the season. Our lead over Villa of 4 points is the 5th largest lead that second has held over third in 20 years. Only 1 second placed team with a 3 point lead or more over the team in third place has failed to finish above them at the end of the season - Dave Jones' Wolves side which collapsed in 2001/02 (from this point in the season they won another 3 games to give themselves a 10 point lead over 3rd).

In terms of catching Wolves, no league leaders with a 6 or more point gap at this stage in the season has been caught.

Our 4 point lead over Villa obviously gives us a game in hand (while that gap remains). It means that Villa have to average 0.33 points a game more than us between now and the end of the season. While that might not sound a lot, it means that, in effect, if we averaged 2 points over the last 12 games of the season they need 2.33 points a game. This has only been achieved once in 20 years by a team chasing the top 2 (Sunderland in 2004/05 when they went on that silly run). Only 6 teams in 3rd have caught the top two, only one of those from as far back as Villa are currently. Teams in 3rd have been more likely to fall down the table than climb it.

If Villa averaged 2 points a game for the rest of the season, which statistically at least is roughly what we could expect, we'd need 21 points from 12 games. 6 wins and avoiding defeat at Villa would probably just about do it. For Derby or Fulham to overtake us, it would require a colossal collapse.

[The Bob Banker Spanker]

We got 67 points

[Former Labour leader]

We got 67 points

Ouch

[Eric the Half a Bee]

We got 67 points

Typo. I'd put Villa as having 65 for some bonkers reason. The rest of the post barely changes. We're in very good shape.

[The Bob Banker Spanker]

Typo. I'd put Villa as having 65 for some bonkers reason. The rest of the post barely changes. We're in very good shape.

Quite right, playing well and deserving to win. None of this has been down to luck.

[Former Labour leader]

Typo. I'd put Villa as having 65 for some bonkers reason. The rest of the post barely changes. We're in very good shape.

Thank goodness for that. After all that excellent research. Thankyou Eric.

[thehumblegringo]

Thanks Eric

[Ger27]

So looking at the last decade, 26 wins has only not been enough for promotion once. 27 has always been enough.

Winning 6 out of the remaining 12 doesn't sound too scary!

[Robin Friday's Ghost]

We got 67 points

[Eric the Half a Bee]

So looking at the last decade, 26 wins has only not been enough for promotion once. 27 has always been enough.

Winning 6 out of the remaining 12 doesn't sound too scary!

I think it'll take a collapse or an incredible run from another team for us to miss out.

[dembethewarrior]

Just stole this off wolves forum...

Our February ppg is = 1.6
January = 1.75
December = 2.33
November = 3

We need to maintain at least a 1.5 ppg

Would be interesting to see these stats for promotion contenders.

[Pedro de la Rosa]

Just stole this off wolves forum...

Our February ppg is = 1.6
January = 1.75
December = 2.33
November = 3

We need to maintain at least a 1.5 ppg

Would be interesting to see these stats for promotion contenders.

Cardiff's all season is this:
Month Points Games PPG
February 16 6 2.67
January 4 3 1.33
December 7 6 1.17
November 9 4 2.25
October 7 4 1.75
September 9 6 1.5
August 15 5 3
Total 67 34 1.97

If we say we need 88 points to go up, we need 7 wins from our last 12. Or, 1.75 PPG.

Our worst 12 game run of the season (including our 4 straight defeats), is 18 points.

[dembethewarrior]

Cardiff's all season is this:
Month Points Games PPG
February 16 6 2.67
January 4 3 1.33
December 7 6 1.17
November 9 4 2.25
October 7 4 1.75
September 9 6 1.5
August 15 5 3
Total 67 34 1.97

If we say we need 88 points to go up, we need 7 wins from our last 12. Or, 1.75 PPG.

Our worst 12 game run of the season (including our 4 straight defeats), is 18 points.

Thanks for that

[Wales-Bales]

Just stole this off wolves forum...

Our February ppg is = 1.6
January = 1.75
December = 2.33
November = 3

We need to maintain at least a 1.5 ppg

Would be interesting to see these stats for promotion contenders.

Looks like their Jonny Foreigners don't like the winter, just as I predicted. It's not just the games, it's the training too, and the gloomy weather.

[Wales-Bales]

Cardiff's all season is this:
Month Points Games PPG
February 16 6 2.67
January 4 3 1.33
December 7 6 1.17
November 9 4 2.25
October 7 4 1.75
September 9 6 1.5
August 15 5 3
Total 67 34 1.97

If we say we need 88 points to go up, we need 7 wins from our last 12. Or, 1.75 PPG.

Our worst 12 game run of the season (including our 4 straight defeats), is 18 points.

Wasn't December our Amsterdam month? The wheels nearly fell off there!

[dembethewarrior]

Looks like their Jonny Foreigners don't like the winter, just as I predicted. It's not just the games, it's the training too, and the gloomy weather.

I dunno... I personally class November and December as winter too. Didn't do too shabby then.

[Former Labour leader]

Wasn't December our Amsterdam month? The wheels nearly fell off there!

I'm beginning to wonder what really happened there.

[Keyser Soze]

All of my post is based on looking back at the last 20 Championship seasons.

69 points from 34 games is an impressive feat. It's one point less than we had in our Championship winning season. Every side that has had 69 points or more at this point in the season over the last 2 decades has won automatic promotion. The highest number of points a team has had after 34 games and failed to win promotion is 66, achieved by Ipswich in 2004/05. Bolton failed to win automatic promotion in 2000/01 after winning 66 points at this stage but they comfortably won the playoffs. Derby in 2014/15 are the highest profile chokers, winning 65 points after 34 games but mustered only another 12, finishing in 8th.

Of the 20 sides in second place at this point in the season, only Sheffield United in 2005/06 and Brighton last season have better records than ours. Similarly, Villa's 65 points in 3rd is amongst the best record for a team in 3rd at this point in the season. Our lead over Villa of 4 points is the 5th largest lead that second has held over third in 20 years. Only 1 second placed team with a 3 point lead or more over the team in third place has failed to finish above them at the end of the season - Dave Jones' Wolves side which collapsed in 2001/02 (from this point in the season they won another 3 games to give themselves a 10 point lead over 3rd).

In terms of catching Wolves, no league leaders with a 6 or more point gap at this stage in the season has been caught.

Our 4 point lead over Villa obviously gives us a game in hand (while that gap remains). It means that Villa have to average 0.33 points a game more than us between now and the end of the season. While that might not sound a lot, it means that, in effect, if we averaged 2 points over the last 12 games of the season they need 2.33 points a game. This has only been achieved once in 20 years by a team chasing the top 2 (Sunderland in 2004/05 when they went on that silly run). Only 6 teams in 3rd have caught the top two, only one of those from as far back as Villa are currently. Teams in 3rd have been more likely to fall down the table than climb it.

If Villa averaged 2 points a game for the rest of the season, which statistically at least is roughly what we could expect, we'd need 21 points from 12 games. 6 wins and avoiding defeat at Villa would probably just about do it. For Derby or Fulham to overtake us, it would require a colossal collapse.

A nice piece, well put together. Quite enjoyed that. I think we will get that second spot and agree that Wolves have bagged it.

[Pedro de la Rosa]

I'm beginning to wonder what really happened there.

I'm not. Morrison got injured and Zohore wasn't fully fit. Add to that nobody in midfield could tackle and you get the perfect storm.

[Former Labour leader]

I'm not. Morrison got injured and Zohore wasn't fully fit. Add to that nobody in midfield could tackle and you get the perfect storm.

Was said tongue in cheek. I agree our injury list caught up with us over the Xmas period.
Mind you, if I went to Amsterdam with a bunch of guys I am not sure I would ever be the same again!

[Pedro de la Rosa]

Was said tongue in cheek. I agree our injury list caught up with us over the Xmas period.
Mind you, if I went to Amsterdam with a bunch of guys I am not sure I would ever be the same again!

I'll write it off as a fluke. That being said I wouldn't recommend they went on the razz again until May!

[jamieccfc]

I had another look on the prediction for the remaining games and have us finishing on 92 points originally I had 88 so we're ahead of that now

[dembethewarrior]

I had another look on the prediction for the remaining games and have us finishing on 92 points originally I had 88 so we're ahead of that now

That on BBC?

As someone else mentioned, even our worst run of 12 games we got 18 points.

[jamieccfc]

That on BBC?

As someone else mentioned, even our worst run of 12 games we got 18 points.

No I just do it myself, I had a look on BBC website and can't find it

[dembethewarrior]

No I just do it myself, I had a look on BBC website and can't find it

Just looked as well, have the PL and then that tinpot leave no **** cares about.

Strange.