Brexit Redux

[Wales-Bales]

Pity then that the chief Euro septic Boris Johnson’s arse went when his pall Gove told him he’s a ****
Which was probably the only time I would agree with that fish lipped arsehole

Have you got a book of putdowns?

[Pearcey3]

Looks like the EU, the remainers , the Labour party , the Blairites , sweaty Ken Clarke , are all are doing their best to stop Brexit in its tracks , and create an election out of this , clever political stuff really as they could not be accused of going against the will of the people if Labour won and accepted the custom union, free movement , continued association to law justice rulings , you better off staying on those terms surely .

I can't wait for that election to see which way the traditional Labour voters, who voted to leave with UKIP jump this time , such fun ?

The problem was the EU Referendum was Cameron v Johnson. There was no mention of Ireland and the realities of leaving the Single Market and Customs Union. Cameron led a dreadful Remain campaign. Now as reality dawns the practicalities of Brexit are becoming ever more problematic.

Even now 20 months after the Referendum this Govt has not got a clue what it wants.They are hopelessly divided. In comparison the EU will stick by the rules of membership. Why should they do any differently?

[Eric Cartman]

Sorry - what I meant he was talking by saying I will do this , I want that. The problem being there isnt a general election until 2022 I think - Brexit will be in place by then, so pointless saying what he 'would' have done.
Secondly - the things he was saying about 'a' or 'the' customs union have already been done. 'The customs union' means you accept ALL the rules without any of the influence and you are still under EU control. 'A' customs union - is what they are negotiating at the moment and would be part of the 'deal'.

Both sides are forced to come out with cr@p like, a brexit for britain, a business brexit etc. Corbyn needs to wake up like Govt have - the EU dont want to be 'friendly' in the negotiation, they want the UK to be seen to have a worse deal and be worse off for leaving.

The EU isnt the friendly place he seems to think it is. You need to play hard ball - rather than roll over when Juncker & co tickles your belly. Labour wanting to be in 'the customs union' effectively means they have ignored the result. Good luck with that Jeremy. I dont think though this is Corbyns idea - as he has voted against every EU bill in Parliament and voted strongly about never joining in the first place. Like I said - interesting times......

So Corbyn is irrelevant, yet you spend the entire thread going on about him?

The real scandal is that we are 20 months on from the vote and the government has just had a meeting to decide if they can agree on what we want as a country.

Labour initially said that their role was 'to hold the government to account'. They tried to do this and picked up certain issues that were important to them and then people (a number on here also) made the point that Labour didn't have a plan themselves and therefore were just criticising. Now they make a plan and they get moaned at for being presumptuous about their prospects of being in power. You couldn't really make it up, thankfully you don't need to these days.

[cyril evans awaydays]

As I understand it, If you leave the EU and remain IN THE customs union then you accept all the other rules, free movement of people etc. So you in fact havent left the EU at all, you have just given up your right to have a say on what the EU does , do you believe that to be the case ?

Do you want to leave the EU, but still allow the EU control of certain aspects ?, do you want the EU to final say on matters - rather than a sovereign UK parliament ? - Im not sure I do.

You also need to remember we are still negotiating - so everything is on the table, if you go in a negotiation telling the other side exactly what you will accept and what you will pay etc - then you shoudnt be negotiating anything - as you're rubbish as it.

Remember there are plenty of the things the EU wants from us , it is not a one way street. Always negotiate hard, I fear Corbyn is now saying he will bend over for Juncker to sh@g him up the jacksie, is the wrong way to do it. All he is doing is going over the same ground that David Davies et al have already done. And we have found the EU are as compromising as we thought - fair play - that is what I would expect them to do, what I would expect us to do - is also play hard ball back.

Anyone who wants to play snowflake politics needs to go back to the 6th form debating club

Your understanding is incorrect. Retaining membership of the single market entails the free movement of goods, people, services and capital. The EU customs union relates to managing the tariffs and quotas for goods at the border of the custom union and the elimination of them within it. YYou would be able to manage your own immigration policies and still be able to be part of the customs union. You lose the right to negotiate trade deals as this is done by the EU.

[life on mars]

Labour has been silent on the matter due to thier internal struggles and what appeared to be self doubt from them to support remain .

Thier positioning now us just pure electioneering, which any party would apply, I suppose the supporting mantra of JC not to play party politics has disappeared somewhat , everyman for himself now I guess , I'm waiting for the Sinn Féin the left-wing of Irish politics to take thier seats at Westminster , in support of the latest bout of ping pong .

[Eric Cartman]

I don't think people voted leave for economic reasons, they voted for political ones - which to me shows a much greater desire.

The reason being that the economic implications are complicated whilst the 'patriotic'/political reasons are less so.

[Eric Cartman]

[B]Eric - I agree - to a certain extent, but if the Govt had said on day 1 after leaving we want x y and z - that would pretty dumb - you dont reveal your hand in a negotiation.

I could somewhat sympathise with that view (although the poker analogy is lazy - what unknowns are there really?) if it became clear in time that the government had a plan. The cabinet can't even agree 20 months on.

[lardy]

A Eurosceptic perhaps? Naturally if you were trying to stay in Europe by stealth, it would be the very last thing that you would do.

I was hoping you might have a name. Boris? Would he be doing a great job of negotatiations and sorting out the Tories? Davis? Rees-Mogg?

I do love this idea that you have of an invisible group with overarching power to choose who leads the Tories to keep Brexit from happening - when the same invisible group didn't bother to a) stop the referendum happening b) make it near-impossible for Leave to win by asking for 70-30 c) stop Boris from doing a great job in charge of the Leave campaign etc

[the other bob wilson]

I've always believed, and always will do, that the result of the Referendum can be put down to one subject and one subject only - immigration. The tired line that all Leave voters were racists is bollox as far as I'm concerned, but if you are talking about enough people whose vote was decided by a desire to "get the foreigners out" to have made the difference between a Remain win and what actually happened, then I believe that's a different matter.
Any claim the result of the referendum was an endorsement of a hard Brexit, a soft Brexit or any other type of Brexit is a spurious one - all that the vote proved was that on a particular day, more of those who could be bothered voting thought we'd be better off out of the EU than in it.

[the other bob wilson]

I dont think it was the case of get the foreigners out - but it was the case that (I believe) most people didnt want to see the creation of a city the size of Cardiff being created each year - based on net immigration circa 300,000 people.
Ask people oop North Bob and you'd get a different reaction, anyone who works in fishing, steal, etc would tell you they want out regardless, then you have a lot of others who dont fancy taking orders from Brussels - even though thats not entirely accurate.

IF - the EU had listened, to the issues and concerns put forward by Cameron when he went and spoke to them, then all of this could have been avoided. They should have listened and rolled back on the Maastright treaty. Which incidentally was signed off by John Major!!.

None of us know - we only have our own opinions. I personally believe people want to trade with other EU countries freely, as long as we all adhere to the same set of rules. Countries should be able to control who comes in or out via a working visa, or whether you have the finances to sustain yourself. Trade deals can be done by the EU as a whole, but if a country wants to import Korean cars etc - in return for a country exporting potatoes - then they should.
It doesnt need an EU parliament to have a European Space Agency, or Medicines Directive etc , it just needs the will of the countries wanting to get involved to make it happen.

The EU commision - I havent got a clue how you could make it electable - there are too many vested interests. Same goes for the EU parliament - how is it possible to enact one law for all the EU countries. All it is good for is maybe agreeing on a std corporation tax rate, std vat rate etc - but this is impossible as their many varied economies in the EU - one size does not fit all.

The issue most people have is that we dont need more member states joining that take more than they give, we dont an EU defence force, we dont want TTIP etc etc - The EU as a body wants a 1 nation state for Europe - which is why it has the policies it has. No one wants that though apart from the 5 presidents of EU , Juncker, Tsuk, Shultz etc.

The solution is a square peg - but we only have round holes, it will never work out as it is - in my opinion - I should add. My opinion is no more valid than anyone elses - and vice verse.

It needed about 635,000 of those who voted leave to vote remain and the result would have been different. The total number of votes was 33,551,983, so I make it that it needed about 1.9% of those who voted to have changed their vote to remain for it to have won - I believe it's entirely possible that just over half a million of those who voted did so on a get the foreigners out basis.

[City123]

As I understand it, If you leave the EU and remain IN THE customs union then you accept all the other rules, free movement of people etc. So you in fact havent left the EU at all, you have just given up your right to have a say on what the EU does , do you believe that to be the case ?

Do you want to leave the EU, but still allow the EU control of certain aspects ?, do you want the EU to final say on matters - rather than a sovereign UK parliament ? - Im not sure I do.

You also need to remember we are still negotiating - so everything is on the table, if you go in a negotiation telling the other side exactly what you will accept and what you will pay etc - then you shoudnt be negotiating anything - as you're rubbish as it.

Remember there are plenty of the things the EU wants from us , it is not a one way street. Always negotiate hard, I fear Corbyn is now saying he will bend over for Juncker to sh@g him up the jacksie, is the wrong way to do it. All he is doing is going over the same ground that David Davies et al have already done. And we have found the EU are as compromising as we thought - fair play - that is what I would expect them to do, what I would expect us to do - is also play hard ball back.

Anyone who wants to play snowflake politics needs to go back to the 6th form debating club

Christ, you love a good ramble. If the government believe that remaining in the customs union is the best possible form of "Brexit", as opposed to a "hard Brexit" which would royally screw us over, then we should stay in the customs union.

Your first paragraph is a fantastic argument for remaining in the EU. We were able to influence the EU whilst we were in the EU, now we'll be on the outside looking in at one of the biggest trading bloc's in the world

We're in a weak position for negotiations because A) 27v1, B) They have a lot more things we need than the other way round, C) We had an election jut weeks before negotiations started which distracted and weakened the government and D) Nobody knows what the f*ck to do

[life on mars]

I've always believed, and always will do, that the result of the Referendum can be put down to one subject and one subject only - immigration. The tired line that all Leave voters were racists is bollox as far as I'm concerned, but if you are talking about enough people whose vote was decided by a desire to "get the foreigners out" to have made the difference between a Remain win and what actually happened, then I believe that's a different matter.
Any claim the result of the referendum was an endorsement of a hard Brexit, a soft Brexit or any other type of Brexit is a spurious one - all that the vote proved was that on a particular day, more of those who could be bothered voting thought we'd be better off out of the EU than in it.

From the environment I found myself in I heard and understood the following :

Big percentage over 50 wanted out.

Previous Labour voters were drawn into UKIP Johnny Foreigner taking over our life mantra , but couldn't grasp that the fact eastern Europeans migration would be replaced by sub contingent arrivals.

Youngsters wanted to remain with passion .

Over 60's just hated Europe in any shape or form and took the chance to put two fingers up to them .

Business men believing there was a better and new opportunities to expand trade,and unravel itself from bureaucratic laws that fail to allow companies to grow.

A lot of folk who believed our laws are our laws not for Europe to decide what the correct wattage a Hoover should be.

Me I voted to remain now I want out , as I now see and hear the true colours of the selflish /bullish ,greedy European community.

Perhaps they should provide even benefits and minimum working wage accross its boundaries, not use successful generous countries to be used and abused to shift popluations to eleviate the inadequacies of others.

[cyril evans awaydays]

From the environment I found myself in I heard and understood the following :

Big percentage over 50 wanted out.

Previous Labour voters were drawn into UKIP Johnny Foreigner taking over our life mantra , but couldn't grasp that the fact eastern Europeans migration would be replaced by sub contingent arrivals.

Youngsters wanted to remain with passion .

Over 60's just hated Europe in any shape or form and took the chance to put two fingers up to them .

Business men believing there was a better and new opportunities to expand trade,and unravel itself from bureaucratic laws that fail to allow companies to grow.

A lot of folk who believed our laws are our laws not for Europe to decide what the correct wattage a Hoover should be.

Me I voted to remain now I want out , as I now see and hear the true colours of the selflish /bullish ,greedy European community.

Perhaps they should provide even benefits and minimum working wage accross its boundaries, not use successful generous countries to be used and abused to shift popluations to eleviate the inadequacies of others.

It would appear from Theresa May's speech today that we want to embrace most of the EU's bureaucratic laws and in several cases pay for the privilege of doing so. Just before she set out her vision of new trade deals with other countries Donald Trump proposed 25% tariffs on all steel imports to the US including the £360m of annual steel exports that the UK (mainly Wales) makes to the USA. If you think that the people who are promising us great trade deals to replace the ones we have in the single market when they have to make a choice between the survival of Pittsburgh or Port Talbot you are probably wearing the same star spangled specs as Fox and Farage!

[Wales-Bales]

It would appear from Theresa May's speech today that we want to embrace most of the EU's bureaucratic laws and in several cases pay for the privilege of doing so. Just before she set out her vision of new trade deals with other countries Donald Trump proposed 25% tariffs on all steel imports to the US including the £360m of annual steel exports that the UK (mainly Wales) makes to the USA. If you think that the people who are promising us great trade deals to replace the ones we have in the single market when they have to make a choice between the survival of Pittsburgh or Port Talbot you are probably wearing the same star spangled specs as Fox and Farage!

Trump has transformed the American economy in little over a year, highlighting the folly of the Obama/Merkel /EU globalisation ideology in the process. Why not use British steel in Britain to maintain British jobs?

[CardiffIrish2]

Trump has transformed the American economy in little over a year, highlighting the folly of the Obama/Merkel /EU globalisation ideology in the process. Why not use British steel in Britain to maintain British jobs?

I know it’s hard for you to believe but every impartial source traces the start of the USA recovery to the days of Obama.

I know you don’t want to belive that but that’s an indisputable fact

[cyril evans awaydays]

360million - wow

Any idea of the figures re Chinese steel production and what that has done to the UK steel industry?
China produces about 800 millions tonnes of the stuff, we do about 18, hence they dump it on the international market

And why, when they were building the new docks road out to newport road - they used German steel!! yet there is a steel making plant next door - not to mention port talbot. It doesnt make sense to import steel when you are making it on your doorstep - in my opinion. When Port Talbot was in the sh1t because of cheap chinese imports - what did the EU do ? - jack all.

What did Trump do ? , what should we do ?.

Isn't China one of our key trade deals post-Brexit? What are we going to offer beyond the weight of the EU that makes our trade better? Are you seriously saying that when we take back control one of our first acts as global Britain will be to signal that we are closing the huge trade gap between us and China by establishing new tariff barriers to protect UK industry?

[cyril evans awaydays]

-
yes just like Trump is doing and the chinese have done. What Trump has done is made it very clear to the car industry , the days of closing down US car factories, moving to Mexico and then importing the cars back into the USA are over.

You may find this hard to believe - but im not an international trade negotiator, there are others on here who seem to think they are though.

My point being that when we were in the EU, the EU did nothing to stop china dumping their steal here. When the Chinese tried it in the US - it didnt happen, same goes for Canada I believe. I would like the UK to produce it's own steel for construction in the UK, I dont want the steel industry to be killed off by cheap chinese steel.

Im sure the Chinese and Americans feel the same way about their steel industry. PS When we leave the EU - we can still sell goods into the EU, but we may have to pay 10% WTO tariff - the same goes the other way around for German cars coming in.

I take your point on you not being an international trade negotiatior, particularly as you seem to think that we have left the EU! The only authoritative economic analysis we have seen is the leak from the UK government which estimates that post-Brexit trade deals with the US, China, India, Australia, the Gulf and the Asean bloc would add between 0.3 and 0.6% to GDP in the long run. When all these deals are completed Brexit is still estimated to leave the UK 2-8% poorer than we would have been had we remained. I am not clear whether this anticipated Trump's trade war or not.

[Wales-Bales]

I take your point on you not being an international trade negotiatior, particularly as you seem to think that we have left the EU! The only authoritative economic analysis we have seen is the leak from the UK government which estimates that post-Brexit trade deals with the US, China, India, Australia, the Gulf and the Asean bloc would add between 0.3 and 0.6% to GDP in the long run. When all these deals are completed Brexit is still estimated to leave the UK 2-8% poorer than we would have been had we remained. I am not clear whether this anticipated Trump's trade war or not.

A leak you say

[cyril evans awaydays]

A leak you say

Why, you got something against leaks?

[the other bob wilson]

Trump has transformed the American economy in little over a year, highlighting the folly of the Obama/Merkel /EU globalisation ideology in the process. Why not use British steel in Britain to maintain British jobs?

Don't forget folks, this man is "on the fence" when it comes to Trump .

[Wales-Bales]

Why, you got something against leaks?

Nothing against leaks, but they all come with an agenda.

[cyril evans awaydays]

Nothing against leaks, but they all come with an agenda.

Absolutely. Not clear how in this instance that undermines the analysis that was disclosed though

[Wales-Bales]

Absolutely. Not clear how in this instance that undermines the analysis that was disclosed though

I think the message behind the leak was don't leave because it will make us 8% poorer, and trade deals are rubbish cos we will only make a poxy 0.3% from them. A very scary situation if you ask me!

[life on mars]

It would appear from Theresa May's speech today that we want to embrace most of the EU's bureaucratic laws and in several cases pay for the privilege of doing so. Just before she set out her vision of new trade deals with other countries Donald Trump proposed 25% tariffs on all steel imports to the US including the £360m of annual steel exports that the UK (mainly Wales) makes to the USA. If you think that the people who are promising us great trade deals to replace the ones we have in the single market when they have to make a choice between the survival of Pittsburgh or Port Talbot you are probably wearing the same star spangled specs as Fox and Farage!

I gave no allegiance to the USA however one could suggest since WW2 it has built a remarkable economy, and that he based on looking after your own, that drifted somewhat under the democrats and homeland jobs were lost in the quest for profit , strangely a business man is trying to reverse that, the rust belt of American and the rich of the East coast of the USA are why Trump is in power.

So why don't we look inwardly and look after our own , we have been more than generous to other nations and free movement , more than most, the EU should recognise that .

[Eric Cartman]

I gave no allegiance to the USA however one could suggest since WW2 it has built a remarkable economy, and that he based on looking after your own, that drifted somewhat under the democrats and homeland jobs were lost in the quest for profit , strangely a business man is trying to reverse that, the rust belt of American and the rich of the East coast of the USA are why Trump is in power.

So why don't we look inwardly and look after our own , we have been more than generous to other nations and free movement , more than most, the EU should recognise that .

In what way do you mean?