Reply With QuoteJust more of the same.
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If we can average 2 points a game between now and the end of the season we'll have 91 points. In 2018, we've more than achieved that, gaining 20 points from 9 games. If we kept up that ratio, we'd have 93 points.
In 2018, Villa have managed 2 points more than us, but if both us and Villa keep up our 2018 form we'd finish 2nd. For Villa to pip us they'd most likely need to win 2 more games than us. 7 wins for us means they'd need 9 from 12. Possible, but tough.
This year Fulham have been the best Championship side. 13 games unbeaten in the league, only dropping 6 points. If both us and Fulham keep up our 2018 form we'd still finish 2nd. For Fulham to pip us they'd most likely need to win 3 more games than us, given that we have a game in hand. 7 wins for us mean they need 9 from 11. That's beyond what they've achieved in their previous 11 games.
Going back to averaging 2 points a game, if we can manage it, Villa need to average 2.33 points a game and Fulham 2.73 points a game. From the position of both Villa and Fulham, only Sunderland in 2004/5 managed that sort of points ratio to go from playoff position to automatic promotion over the last 20 years, so such a run of form would be highly unusual, whereas getting 2 points a game has occurred far more often.
When you stretch out the run of form that it becomes more implausible - this potentially will cause problems for both Villa and Fulham. Should we get to 91 points, Fulham will have needed to get 53 points from their last 20 games; Villa will have needed 44. Sunderland managed 45 points over that same 20 game period, Reading managed a similar total when they won over 100 points. That's the sort of perspective that needs consideration - for Villa to reach 92 points it would take one of the very best last 20 game run-ins there's ever been from a promoted side, in particular from a side not in the top 2. For Fulham to manage it would be unheard of. That's not to suggest it can't happen, but the likelihood is very, very remote, to the point that if one of them managed it, you take your hat off and bow down to a brilliant run of form.
7 wins with a few draws will give us 2 points a game average between now and the end of the season. That will 99% certain mean automatic promotion. 6 wins leaves Villa with a lot of work to do and Fulham still requiring a miracle. 5 wins means we're catchable - any less and we wouldn't have deserved promotion.
Just more of the same.
Pretty much. A point at Villa would be good, too.Originally Posted by sneggyblubird
If we dont go up auto,forget it .We wont win the play offs
Looking at our fixtures we should target to win at least 6
Birmingham (home) W
Barnsley (home) W
Burton (home) W
Hull (away) W
Forest (home) W
Reading (home) W
The other games were I think we can pick up the odd point or a win or 2
Wolves (home) D
Brentford (away) D
Villa (away) L
Sheff Utd (away) L
Norwich (away) D
Derby (away) D
We need to win all our home games pick up a win away and 2 draws will do it
More points than the team who finish 3rd.
Birmingham (home) W
Barnsley (home) W
Burton (home) W
Hull (away) W
Forest (home) W
Reading (home) W
Wolves (home) W
Brentford (away) D
Villa (away) L
Sheff Utd (away) D
Norwich (away) D
Derby (away) D
We could if we avoid Fulham
I think Fulham will catch Wolves but they wont catch us.
Our current injury list to subside, key players to remain fit between now and the end of the season will be the biggest factor in determining our fate this season without doubt.
Players holding their nerve will also be a key one
You think we will win 10 games in a row?
Are you pissed?
Ralls for some time if you believe the rumours - time for Gunnar to get fit and someone like Bryson to step up to the plate if they are true.
Mozza likely to be another few weeks, and you have forgot Jazz, Traore, Gunners and most importantly Ralls. As I say better luck with injuries would make all the difference,
NML to be like a new player last 6 weeks of the season.
Pilks to come on as a super sub every game.
Ken to be like he was end of last season.
The fixtures are not in that order you numpty
Seems I'm still pissedThe fixtures are not in that order you numpty
This
Doing a professional job in this weeks two home games will help. We have a great chance for six points. Do that and I think we will be in a stronger position this time next week with less games left to play.
Beautiful, just beautiful!!!!
Ralls? Peltier,(I think)
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