Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
The underlying Xg from our last 2 games do show that we haven't been our usual selves.
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All season long we've been absolutely killing it on this measure, us and Wolves have been way ahead of everyone else, and arguably we've been even better than them, other than the Preston 3-0 I can't think of other occasions we've been so behind on Xg, our other losses have been even or us comfortably ahead.
So even though we won both of these games, I think it is perfectly legitimate to be cautiously concerned about having to face better sides in the coming weeks.

In both games we appear to not create much from half time and the opposition starts creating much more. I don't doubt that the injuries and fatigue are having an effect, so hopefully we can improve (performance wise, not result wise) when we strt getting players back.

Over the season as a whole we've created on average an xG of 1.7ish per match, which is second only to Brentford, and allowed an xG against of 0.9ish which is second lowest to Wolves.

Over the last 2 we've averaged 1.3 xG in attack and 2.2 xG conceded. Yeah you can win the occasional game like that, but over a longer period the results tend to eventually follow (unless you're Reading from last season)
I'd like to thank you from my own perspective for posting that because it puts some flesh on the bone regarding what was a gut instinct for me concerning our past two matches. I mention in my piece about how people had a go at me for expressing a "negative" view after the Birmingham game, but I'd say this, to a degree anyway, vindicates me.

Yes, I know its stats and people distrust them, but your mention of Reading reminded me of an article I read somewhere months ago where the writer expressed bewilderment as to how Reading were able to have the season they did when their Xg figures flew in the face of what has proved to be a very accurate method of reading how a side fares throughout a season.

Lawnmower could well be right about Ralls' absence being the reason behind our dip in those figures, but all I know is that, while it will not make for great entertainment, I reckon we've got a great chance of automatic promotion if we can perform as we did against Middlesbrough and Bristol City over the next ten matches, whereas I fear for our chances regarding the top two, and in the Play Offs, if the form shown in our last two games continues.

According to some on here, expressing such views will damage our prospects for the rest of the season - how? Why? This is just a messageboard where City fans are allowed to express their opinions and that's all I'm doing.

If you look at the responses to my Birmingham piece in the Feedback section of the blog, you will see the view expressed that, although results went our way last week in that the the leaders continue to come back to us and the number of games the other two sides involved have left to overhaul us has declined, the writer states;-

"In fact I feel our chances of automatic promotion are if anything very slightly diminished by the top four teams’ results yesterday"

I know exactly what he means and concur with his conclusion that automatic promotion is less likely for us now than it was, but would disagree with him slightly because the main reason for my being more doubtful is the nature of our last two performances rather than what Fulham and Villa did on Saturday - we really need one or both of Ralls and Gunnarsson available as soon as possible.