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As I did a few weeks ago, I've had a look at the last 20 seasons at this level, now considering where teams were after 38 games and where they finished up. One or two find this semi-interesting, so apologies for boring the arse off everyone else!
Only 4 of the last 20 sides to be in 2nd place at this juncture have not won automatic promotion. Of those, only 1 side had more points than we do currently (though that could change tomorrow) - Wolves in 2002. Their collapse was unexpected and quite spectacular. The most recent to have been 2nd after 38 games was Middlesbrough in 2015. They were on 72 points and only managed to win another 13, missing out by 4 points.
Wolves failure in 2002 was made all the more unusual by the fact they were a whopping 10 points clear of 3rd placed West Brom. The other sides to fail to get automatic promotion after being 2nd at this stage were only 3, 2 and 2 points clear of 3rd.
Credit must be given to West Brom for recovering such a points difference. They won 22 of the last 24 points available, quite an extraordinary effort. Something that also seems to go against the norm. Sides in 3rd with greater points gaps from 2nd tend to win less points over the last 8 games than sides in 3rd who are closer to 2nd. Whether that's due to teams thinking they cannot catch the side above them is but a theory. Taking the West Brom stat out of the equation and 3rd placed teams within 3 points of the team in 2nd average almost 0.4 points a game more than those 4 or more points behind.
That West Brom team are also remarkable as they are the only side in 3rd with less than 70 points that went on to win automatic promotion. Villa and Fulham have 69.
In terms of where we are, a win tomorrow would see us with the joint best record for a team in 2nd place in the last 20 years, a point would give us the joint 2nd best. A win would also see us have a better record than more than half of the teams sitting at the top of the table. As for the teams at the top that had less points than we currently have, only 1 failed to win automatic promotion. This is the tear-jerking tale of Bristol City, top with a measly 67 points in 2008, who won 7 points from their last 8 games, finished 4th and also bollocksed up a playoff final.
In short, history suggests that we'll win automatic promotion, probably comfortably, barring a once a generation collapse coupled with an extraordinary run from a team beneath us. We just need to keep our composure.
Can you do me a favour and do some research that looks at how many points teams managed by Neil Warnock get in the last 8 games of a championship season?
Feels like the Warnock factor may give even more comfort but be good to know and you’re good at
It
I'll have a look at it soon, sounds interesting.Originally Posted by StraightOuttaCanton
I can answer one straight away. His Championship-winning QPR side won 12 points from the last 8 games in 2010/11. They were 10 points clear at this stage and snoozed their way into the Premier League.
It is interesting. Well done.As I did a few weeks ago, I've had a look at the last 20 seasons at this level, now considering where teams were after 38 games and where they finished up. One or two find this semi-interesting, so apologies for boring the arse off everyone else!
Only 4 of the last 20 sides to be in 2nd place at this juncture have not won automatic promotion. Of those, only 1 side had more points than we do currently (though that could change tomorrow) - Wolves in 2002. Their collapse was unexpected and quite spectacular. The most recent to have been 2nd after 38 games was Middlesbrough in 2015. They were on 72 points and only managed to win another 13, missing out by 4 points.
Wolves failure in 2002 was made all the more unusual by the fact they were a whopping 10 points clear of 3rd placed West Brom. The other sides to fail to get automatic promotion after being 2nd at this stage were only 3, 2 and 2 points clear of 3rd.
Credit must be given to West Brom for recovering such a points difference. They won 22 of the last 24 points available, quite an extraordinary effort. Something that also seems to go against the norm. Sides in 3rd with greater points gaps from 2nd tend to win less points over the last 8 games than sides in 3rd who are closer to 2nd. Whether that's due to teams thinking they cannot catch the side above them is but a theory. Taking the West Brom stat out of the equation and 3rd placed teams within 3 points of the team in 2nd average almost 0.4 points a game more than those 4 or more points behind.
That West Brom team are also remarkable as they are the only side in 3rd with less than 70 points that went on to win automatic promotion. Villa and Fulham have 69.
In terms of where we are, a win tomorrow would see us with the joint best record for a team in 2nd place in the last 20 years, a point would give us the joint 2nd best. A win would also see us have a better record than more than half of the teams sitting at the top of the table. As for the teams at the top that had less points than we currently have, only 1 failed to win automatic promotion. This is the tear-jerking tale of Bristol City, top with a measly 67 points in 2008, who won 7 points from their last 8 games, finished 4th and also bollocksed up a playoff final.
In short, history suggests that we'll win automatic promotion, probably comfortably, barring a once a generation collapse coupled with an extraordinary run from a team beneath us. We just need to keep our composure.
I,m not sure that many would have correctly predicted the results of the last week. I would certainly have been wrong.
I know every game is a big one but a win tomorrow would be immense whilst a loss now less distasterous.
His Cardiff Side of last season took 11 points from the last 8 games
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