Reply With QuoteI remember having 4 or 5 games in hand one year with DJ (I'm sure if it) and we ended up losing most of them.
Points on the board much better!
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A few comments this morning suggest that having this game in hand is undesirable as it means us having 2 games in a week when everyone else has an easier time of things. I remember looking at this once in one of Dave Jones' seasons in charge and we actually won more points when the games came thick and fast than when we had longer gaps between them, so I thought I'd have a look and see how we've done this season.
Taking league games only into account, our record when we've had a midweek game that follows a weekend fixture, or weekend game that follows a midweek game, we've won 2.08 points a game on average (winning 15 and drawing 3 of the 23 occasions this has happened). Our record when we've had a week between games is marginally better, winning 2.13 points a game on average (winning 5 and drawing 2 of the 8 occasions this has happened). More worryingly, our record when there's been longer than a week to wait between games, we've only won 1.6 points a game on average (winning and drawing 2 of the 5 occasions this has happened). (Yes, 23+8+5=36, but we didn't play anyone this season before Burton in a league game).
However, this is not necessarily an accurate picture. It doesn't take into account teams played. Of the 8 times we played teams after roughly a week's gap, only Millwall and Middlesbrough were in the top half. We faced Sunderland twice, Hull City, Leeds, Bolton, Forest as well. Our five games that took place after more than a week were against Barnsley, Reading, Birmingham, Brentford and Fulham, at times when all were in the bottom half.
There's also another skew to the stats. The Christmas period was one where we lost the plot and played our worst football of the season. I don't believe any of that was down to the number of fixures we played - there have been two other occasions when we've played 4 successive games in a similar timescale and on both occasions we won every game. Take the Christmas defeats out of the equation and we'll have won 2.4 points a game when they've come thick and fast.
In short, I don't think it's any sort of disadvantage playing games midweek and at weekends instead of having a gap of a week between them. If anything, it provides some continuity.
I remember having 4 or 5 games in hand one year with DJ (I'm sure if it) and we ended up losing most of them.
Points on the board much better!
Different thing, but agreed with that.Originally Posted by BlueArmy 86
It was the 2008/09 season. By mid March we had as many as 4 games in hand on most of the teams above us. We were just outside the playoffs. We played 4 games in 8 days over Easter, winning 10 points from those 12. After the last, a 3-1 win over Burnley who also had promotion ambitions, we were 4 points off automatic promotion with a game in hand and a better goal difference. We were also 8 points ahead of and +18 goal difference better than Preston, who had 3 games left to play, while we had 4 to go. 1 win would have secured a playoff place. 2 wins and a draw would have won automatic promotion. We managed 3 losses and a draw and missed out on the playoffs, not because of the games in hand, but because we went on another of those runs we endured during those few seasons where we were absolute shit.
Yes, there is a lot of data around that the number of recovery days is very important, Raymond Verhaijen (sp) is always banging on about it. I'm sure it was something like at 2 days recovery the chance of you winning whatever game you're playing is reduced by 25%.
By 4 or 5 days the effect disappears, so we are going to be spending a chunk of time operating between these 2.
If it does have an influence then we should be grateful that the Brentford game was postponed, otherwise the gap would be greater.
Hopefully though (just like Derby) we'll have more fit players to choose from after the international break.
Interesting. That suggests we've done better than expected when we've had games in quick succession.
What’s our record in games following international breaks?
It feels like it could be poor, but probably the stars show otherwise. It's like the "typical city, always losing to the bottom teams" just because fans remember the one time the bottom side actually won!
That of course depends on the gap that the opposition have had, if its the same then theres no difference obviously
But some teams will have performed better than their seasonal average when their games have been closer together, some will have done worse. Technically, you're right, but that doesn't necessarily happen. It's the same with international breaks when some teams come back re-energised, yet others seem flat as they haven't played together.
But you can't 'stat' momentum.
This season we've had 3 gaps where we haven't had a game for a fortnight - one in September, October and November. Assuming these are the international breaks we've had so far, we've won 1, drawn 1 and lost one (to Brentford, Fulham and Birmingham respectively). It has to be said we were woeful at Birmingham, lucky at Fulham and deservedly beat Brentford at home. Not sure you can judge anything from that, to be honest.
You can calculate it, though, p=mv
You can calculate it, though, p=mv
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