It feels inevitable we are going to fall short

[The Lone Gunman]

Bamba/Morrison as a central pairing are way more solid than Terry/Chester. Bennett is a far better defender than Taylor.

If what you say is true, how would you account for the fact that Villa have kept more clean sheets than City so far this season?

[dml1954]

If what you say is true, how would you account for the fact that Villa have kept more clean sheets than City so far this season?

Did you see the Villa game on tv on Saturday ?. Their defence was all over the place. They have only kept one more clean sheet than us anyway and have played an extra game, so no difference really.

[The Lone Gunman]

Did you see the Villa game on tv on Saturday ?. Their defence was all over the place. They have only kept one more clean sheet than us anyway and have played an extra game, so no difference really.

Yes, I did indeed.

You suggest there is "no difference really" between the two defences, the other fella reckons City are "far, far more solid at the back than Villa."

I'm with you. I think the difference between two defences is marginal at best.

[ccfc_is_my_life]

If what you say is true, how would you account for the fact that Villa have kept more clean sheets than City so far this season?

It's called consistency.

They've kept more clean sheets yet conceded more, ergo even you could work out that means their defence is either good or shocking. We've had few shocking defensive performances this season.

[jamieccfc]

Jesus wept I hope I don't find myself stuck in the trenches with some of you

[The Lone Gunman]

It's called consistency. They've kept more clean sheets yet conceded more, ergo even you could work out that means their defence is either good or shocking. We've had few shocking defensive performances this season.

Simple as that, is it? Good or shocking. No middle ground.

I watched a mediocre Sheffield side take City's defence apart on several occasions on Monday night. If their finishing had been anything other than powderpuff, they'd have scored three or four. Yesterday lunchtime, I watched a talented but hopelessly inconsistent Norwich side score three against Villa, one of which was a world-class long-range strike. Sheffield had 14 shots against City, 6 of which were on target. Norwich had 16 shots against Villa, 6 of which were on target.

As I've said before, the margins are very fine. Even I can work that out.

[insider]

Its inevitable certain people turn up on this messageboard when we have a draw and a loss in our last 2 games.

[jamieccfc]

Its inevitable certain people turn up on this messageboard when we have a draw and a loss in our last 2 games.

Funny that in it

[ccfc_is_my_life]

Simple as that, is it? Good or shocking. No middle ground.

I watched a mediocre Sheffield side take City's defence apart on several occasions on Monday night. If their finishing had been anything other than powderpuff, they'd have scored three or four. Yesterday lunchtime, I watched a talented but hopelessly inconsistent Norwich side score three against Villa, one of which was a world-class long-range strike. Sheffield had 14 shots against City, 6 of which were on target. Norwich had 16 shots against Villa, 6 of which were on target.

As I've said before, the margins are very fine. Even I can work that out.

The point the ex-fan missed is that of consistency. I know stats are all you have but the clear point, given Villa keeping more clean sheets but conceding more goals is that they either play well... or conceded several goals.

We were poor against Sheffield United, sure. I note that you refer to Sheff Utds powderpuff finishing but conveniently ignore the fact it could have been far, far more as every time they attacked they looked like scoring.

Still, citing by comparing single games is a fair approach I guess.

I'd be interested in seeing the shots against / shots on target stats for us and Villa for the entire season.

[The Lone Gunman]

Its inevitable certain people turn up on this messageboard when we have a draw and a loss in our last 2 games.

It's even more inevitable that certain people will respond whenever I post.

I really don't know what you're problem is with me. Perhaps you can spell it out for me the next time our paths cross.

[ccfc_is_my_life]

It's even more inevitable that certain people will respond whenever I post.

I really don't know what you're problem is with me. Perhaps you can spell it out for me the next time our paths cross.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[insider]

It's even more inevitable that certain people will respond whenever I post.

I really don't know what you're problem is with me. Perhaps you can spell it out for me the next time our paths cross.

I will don`t worry about that

[The Lone Gunman]

The point the ex-fan missed is that of consistency. I know stats are all you have......

Not quite. I do have the benefit of watching plenty of matches too.

The goals conceded stats for the top six defences in the Championship this season are as follows:

34 - Cardiff City
36 - Wolves
38 - Derby
39 - Middlesbrough
39 - Millwall
40 - Aston Villa

It should be crystal clear to anyone with any common sense that the margins over 40 or 41 games are very slim, but it's not the stats alone that suggest that. It's the evidence of almost all of the Championship games I've watched this season.

[The Lone Gunman]

I will don`t worry about that

I'll await your insights with my breath suitably bated.

[ccfc_is_my_life]

Not quite. I do have the benefit of watching plenty of matches too.

The goals conceded stats for the top six defences in the Championship this season are as follows:

34 - Cardiff City
36 - Wolves
38 - Derby
39 - Middlesbrough
39 - Millwall
40 - Aston Villa

It should be crystal clear to anyone with any common sense that the margins over 40 or 41 games are very slim, but it's not the stats alone that suggest that. It's the evidence of almost all of the Championship games I've watched this season.

Maybe, but that "evidence" would be subjective. Nobody can realistically claim Terry/Chester are more solid than Bamba/Morrison given Bamba pretty much at the top for blocks / interceptions / tackles. What I'd suspect without seeing the figures are that our concession of possession leads to more attacks against us. That could mean we've higher shots against than Villa do, which is a far more meaningful view of things.

If Villa concede more goals on less shots than that just shows how much better our defence is.

[The Lone Gunman]

Maybe, but that "evidence" would be subjective. Nobody can realistically claim Terry/Chester are more solid than Bamba/Morrison given Bamba pretty much at the top for blocks / interceptions / tackles. What I'd suspect without seeing the figures are that our concession of possession leads to more attacks against us. That could mean we've higher shots against than Villa do, which is a far more meaningful view of things.

If Villa concede more goals on less shots than that just shows how much better our defence is.

The stats (excluding the last set of games) are:

City - 446 shots against, 125 of which were on target
Villa - 466 shots against, 159 of which were on target

So, that's in fact the exact opposite of what you suggested.

[ccfc_is_my_life]

For shots against, our figures are better than Villas, 7.6% against 8.5%.
For shots on target against, Villa are better, 27.2% against 25.1%.

So from base viewing, a team shooting is more likely to score against Villa than us unless it's on target. Villa have had just under 1 more shot on target against per game than we have.

Now, "on target" provides no context - was it a weak shot dribbling to keeper, was it in 6 yard box, penalty area, outside area etc but if you work out the percentage of shots on target against versus shots against there is a bit statistical difference.

28.02% against 34.12% to be precise; basically shows that shots against Villa are far more likely to be shots on target, on target shots having higher chance of being a goal.

So whilst the naive premise of looking at shots alone was incorrect, the final stat of on target shot against percentage shows that it's more difficult of opposition to get shots off that have a higher chance of a goal occurring... which would mean our defence were pretty tight... and tighter than Villas...

[jamieccfc]

Stats can be manipulated to how ever you want them watching villa against Norwich they play a high line which will suit us imo with a front 3 of hoilett Ken and NML we can get in behind with ease

[The Lone Gunman]

So whilst the naive premise of looking at shots alone was incorrect, the final stat of on target shot against percentage shows that it's more difficult of opposition to get shots off that have a higher chance of a goal occurring... which would mean our defence were pretty tight... and tighter than Villas...

I'd have bet my nuts that you would attempt to use those figures to back up your argument despite suggesting the exact opposite was true only minutes ago. Credit to you, you're good value. That Bill Murray quote springs to mind.

I'll have to leave you to it as I have work to do this afternoon, but for what it's worth I'd also have Morrison and Bamba in my team ahead of Chester and Terry. However, I don't rate Bennett at all (good going forward, often dodgy in defence from what I've seen) and I don't know what to make of Manga as a right back (I prefer Peltier, although he obviously has his limitations). My overall point stands, though - the margins in this division, particularly at the top end of the table, are clearly very fine.

[ccfc_is_my_life]

Not at all, I made an assumption - figures disproved that hypothesis instead revealing another better result that namely we're far better at preventing the highest category of shot attempt from occurring.

Bennett has improved defensively but of course that also depends upon what cover he gets from Hoilett. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. Peltier I fully prefer at right back over Manga.

When Villas full back options include Taylor and Hutton, it's hard to see who of their keeper, defenders would get into our side.

[Penarth Blues]

https://experimental361.com/2018/04/...ip-8-apr-2018/

I think this best explains where things are right now - Fulham are the top team in the division on form, we're third. Based on stats we are still marginally favourites to go up but we need to embark on another winning run on Tuesday. Win our next 3 and I think we might just have enough to get there...

[ccfc_is_my_life]

Millwall 10th? Surprising given their good form but that's stats I guess.

Stats are all well and good but anything can happen. Cairney could suffer an injury, Sessignon could be sent off... Terry could have a mental switch off thinking of Chester's wife allowing Lee Peltier to win the ball and score in the 97th minute...

[David Vincent]

Its inevitable certain people turn up on this messageboard when we have a draw and a loss in our last 2 games.

You might be married to a beautiful and intelligent woman who satisfies all your needs but there is always someone who's disappointed that she's not a very good whistler. Our resident contrarian is a bit like that.

[dembethewarrior]

Just look at the fixtures . Fulham won't drop a point. There is no chance we are not going to get as many points with the ganes remaining.

I really hope you don't turn up for the remaining home games. **** me, what a miserable fecker you are

[dembethewarrior]

In fact, Villa have conceded just six more goals than City.

Not like you to pop up with a negative comment is it. **** me.