The good luck Southampton thread

[Badly Ironed Shirt]

Can’t work out the odds to this.

Bookies have Huddersfield as huge odds on to lose both games. And Swansea odds on to beat stoke.

But Swansea big favourites to go down. What am I missing?

More likely, bookies odds are not scientific, and the prices are determined by betting patterns.

[StraightOuttaCanton]

Probably just the compounding point. You need to take the odds of Huddersfield losing against Chelsea; multiply that by the odds of huddersfield losing against Arsenal; and multiply that by the odds of Swansea beating Stoke. The result will be a pretty low percentage, even if those first to events are quite likely.

E.g. if Huddersfield are say 70% certain to lose each game, the probability of them losing both is pretty much evens. If the chance of Swansea winning is say 50%, then the odds of Swansea staying up is about 25%. (These numbers are for example only, picked because they are probably about right and because it makes the mental arithmetic easy).

Nice. That was actually really well explained - Cheers

[cyril evans awaydays]

I dont want to be friends with you no more.

I just hoped that you lost by the odd goal. Still mates?

[StraightOuttaCanton]

I do too. Cardiff would easily finish above Swansea next season, I'm not quite sure why Cardiff fans want such a weak team to go down this season. Especially considering the excitement at recent games with Cardiff fans singing "Swansea City, we're coming for you".
Surely it would be more fun to see their relegation next season?

A bird in the hand my friend, a bird in the hand. You take your joy when you can.

I’m not the slightest bit worried about finding 3 worse teams than us next year. If we’re good enough we’ll stay up. If not we won’t but this club is in its most upward trajectory in my lifetime. I’ve personally never felt more optimistic - The Jacks got sold to the Yanks and I can see them doing a Sunderland (maybe 2 years on the trot). It’s one of the reasons I do t want us sold - stability and growth is my preference.

0-0 for Huddersfield tomorrow would crown my week

[Optimistic Nick]

Nice. That was actually really well explained - Cheers

It's why an accumulator full of dead certs almost never pays off!

[Optimistic Nick]

Just one final comment on probabilities. I know the last game for Huddersfield will be an odd one because it's Wenger's last game etc etc.... but Arsenal's away form is horrible. They've lost 6 on the trot, including games at Brighton, Swansea and Bournemouth. They've only won 3 away games all season.

[dml1954]

Calvalhal is beginning to look his old self again now - depressed, moaning, rambling incoherently. Great isn't it.

[Father Dougal]

Calvalhal is beginning to look his old self again now - depressed, moaning, rambling incoherently. Great isn't it.

Indeed. Those funny little quotes the media adored don’t seem so funny and clever now.

[the other bob wilson]

If I had to bet on either Swansea or Huddersfield staying up, I'd take Swansea.

Unless they up their game as a goodbye gesture for Wenger, this Arsenal team at home on the final day are a great side to be playing at home if you are in the position that Huddersfield are likely to be in - haven't they lost every league away game they've played this year?

If Arsenal turn up and try, then the jacks may have an escape route, but, if they continue as they have been doing since the season we were in the Premier League, they will only be delaying the inevitable if they do, somehow, scramble clear.

While it wasn't quite like watching us play, I was amazed at the number of long balls Swansea played last night and there were even long throws in going in there - fair enough if you had Llorente, the old Bony and a few others who have played for them in the Premier League, but food and drink to any decent defence with their current fit players surely?

Amazing to think that they've ditched "the Swansea Way", because whatever it was, it worked - what a tribute there was for that club when Alex Ferguson berated the Manchester United scouting staff for not being aware of Michu! There were other brilliant signings on their way to and then when they got to the Premier League as well, so it's especially ironic to see the pig's ear they have made of their recruitment for the past four years or so.

The philosophy has seemed to be that we'll just keep on selling our best players every summer, replace them with much cheaper ones and still survive because we are Swansea, we are the club that play lovely football, we are everyone's "second" Premier League club and we are the blueprint for others to follow. However, no one in authority seems to have noticed that they aren't that club any more. They play bland, defensive football not well enough, their transfer dealings have become a joke, they have lost the knack of appointing the right manager and have been living on borrowed time for the second half of their Premier League existence - there was a time when the Premier League would genuinely have missed a club like Swansea, but not any more, they have just become proof that it is not as strong a league as Sky try to make out it is.

[the other bob wilson]

If I had to bet on either Swansea or Huddersfield staying up, I'd take Swansea.

Sorry, double post.

[NYCBlue]

Sorry, double post.

This why I rarely bet.