Brexit thread

[Eric Cartman]

Remember seeing this on Reddit when it came out, surprised that it only has 40k views.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmRYGRILOxU

[Auntie Andy]

My letter to The Nation

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/stat...700037632?s=21

Going well I see

[lardy]

Here's Boris attempting to string a few sentences together about our European partners without making any bumblewhoopsies.

Oh my God!
OH MY GOD!!!
��pic.twitter.com/2eePik7vu2

— ARTIST TAXI DRIVER (@chunkymark) November 27, 2018

[life on mars]

Here's Boris attempting to string a few sentences together about our European partners without making any bumblewhoopsies.

Oh my God!
OH MY GOD!!!
��pic.twitter.com/2eePik7vu2

— ARTIST TAXI DRIVER (@chunkymark) November 27, 2018

Why is his neck disengaging from his body .

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Why is his neck disengaging from his body .

Maybe it's his body trying to disassociate from his head....

[the other bob wilson]

If Brexit was only about economic arguments, I would have voted to leave because the Remain side were absolutely abysmal on that side of things. So, I probably should be thinking that this is more "Project Fear" stuff, but, this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162

seems different because they are specific costings for different scenarios rather than the vague stuff we had during the Referendum.

It seems we have reached a state where the Prime Minister and her Chancellor are arguing that the negotiated plan is best because we'll be about £3 billion a year worse off compared to £10 billion a year if there's no deal - is this really what 17 million plus people thought they were voting for?

[cyril evans awaydays]

If Brexit was only about economic arguments, I would have voted to leave because the Remain side were absolutely abysmal on that side of things. So, I probably should be thinking that this is more "Project Fear" stuff, but, this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162

seems different because they are specific costings for different scenarios rather than the vague stuff we had during the Referendum.

It seems we have reached a state where the Prime Minister and her Chancellor are arguing that the negotiated plan is best because we'll be about £3 billion a year worse off compared to £10 billion a year if there's no deal - is this really what 17 million plus people thought they were voting for?

We have probably reached the point where we can have an informed debate about the options for the country. Unfortunately it is probably too late in the day.

Option A

May's deal. It honours the referendum result in that we officially leave the EU but then have a transition period where to all intents and purposes we remain subject to EU rules that runs to the end of 2020 but could extend to the end of 2022. At that point either a backstop kicks in if we haven't negotiated a trade deal with the EU in that time. After transition freedom of movement for EU citizens (out and in) is curtailed and we leave the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies.

The Irish border remains unpoliced but Northern Ireland gets special status. Goods flow freely as we remain aligned to the EU customs code. The level of alignment we have with the EU customs union restricts the ability negotiate trade deals with other third countries. After transition we no longer pay significant amounts to the EU (we may still pay sizeable amounts to remain a member of certain EU institutions) but the net estimated consequence is the UK is £40b worse off over a 15 year period. We are likely to remain subject to a significant amount of EU law going forward with no say in its drafting and the European Court of Justice will hold sway over its interpretation.

Option B

Leave with no deal on 29th March 2019. It honours the referendum result. There is no transition period and from the date of leaving we will engage with the EU as any third country that has not negotiated a trade deal on WTO rule terms. Customs and tariff barriers kick in immediately for all goods entering and leaving the EU from the UK and vice versa. Interim reciprocal arrangements beyond WTO rules could be negotiated on a contingency basis (UK govt has produced technical notices covering over 100 different areas for a no-deal scenario). There are risks in the immediate period after departure that infrastructure may not be in place and delays in movement of goods arise at key points of entry into the UK.

Freedom of movement rights end at withdrawal and the UK can immediately start negotiations with third countries on new trade deals. In the interim they may need to trade with these countries on the basis of any deals negotiated between them and the EU. Payments to the EU will cease and a possible reduction in the amounts the UK has said it pay on leaving could be imposed. There are risks that a hard border would need to be imposed on the island of Ireland. Reports suggest that the UK government estimates that the country will be £150b worse off over 15 years under this scenario. UK parliament will have full sovereignty over its laws with no jurisdiction for the ECJ.

Option C

Remain in the EU. This does not honour the referendum result without the interjection of another vote to override the June 2016 vote. We remain in the single market and the customs union including free movement for EU citizens. We are subject to EU law though we have a say in shaping it but the ultimate arbiter of interpretation remains the ECJ. We continue to make contributions to the EU. Issues over whether Article 50 can be unilaterally rescinded and even if so whether the UK would retain the terms of its membership before the Article 50 notice was served (eg whether the rebate negotiated by Margaret Thatcher would be retained).

If Option A is voted down then other variants such as leaving on terms like Norway has now may emerge. Personally have no idea what will happen next and at what cost to the social cohesion of the country.

[cyril evans awaydays]

It would appear that reports were off the mark. The government has published an economic analysis of the impact of its Chequers proposal but not the deal negotiated and agreed!

[Taunton Blue Genie]

We have probably reached the point where we can have an informed debate about the options for the country. Unfortunately it is probably too late in the day.

Option A

May's deal. It honours the referendum result in that we officially leave the EU but then have a transition period where to all intents and purposes we remain subject to EU rules that runs to the end of 2020 but could extend to the end of 2022. At that point either a backstop kicks in if we haven't negotiated a trade deal with the EU in that time. After transition freedom of movement for EU citizens (out and in) is curtailed and we leave the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies.

The Irish border remains unpoliced but Northern Ireland gets special status. Goods flow freely as we remain aligned to the EU customs code. The level of alignment we have with the EU customs union restricts the ability negotiate trade deals with other third countries. After transition we no longer pay significant amounts to the EU (we may still pay sizeable amounts to remain a member of certain EU institutions) but the net estimated consequence is the UK is £40b worse off over a 15 year period. We are likely to remain subject to a significant amount of EU law going forward with no say in its drafting and the European Court of Justice will hold sway over its interpretation.

Option B

Leave with no deal on 29th March 2019. It honours the referendum result. There is no transition period and from the date of leaving we will engage with the EU as any third country that has not negotiated a trade deal on WTO rule terms. Customs and tariff barriers kick in immediately for all goods entering and leaving the EU from the UK and vice versa. Interim reciprocal arrangements beyond WTO rules could be negotiated on a contingency basis (UK govt has produced technical notices covering over 100 different areas for a no-deal scenario). There are risks in the immediate period after departure that infrastructure may not be in place and delays in movement of goods arise at key points of entry into the UK.

Freedom of movement rights end at withdrawal and the UK can immediately start negotiations with third countries on new trade deals. In the interim they may need to trade with these countries on the basis of any deals negotiated between them and the EU. Payments to the EU will cease and a possible reduction in the amounts the UK has said it pay on leaving could be imposed. There are risks that a hard border would need to be imposed on the island of Ireland. Reports suggest that the UK government estimates that the country will be £150b worse off over 15 years under this scenario. UK parliament will have full sovereignty over its laws with no jurisdiction for the ECJ.

Option C

Remain in the EU. This does not honour the referendum result without the interjection of another vote to override the June 2016 vote. We remain in the single market and the customs union including free movement for EU citizens. We are subject to EU law though we have a say in shaping it but the ultimate arbiter of interpretation remains the ECJ. We continue to make contributions to the EU. Issues over whether Article 50 can be unilaterally rescinded and even if so whether the UK would retain the terms of its membership before the Article 50 notice was served (eg whether the rebate negotiated by Margaret Thatcher would be retained).

If Option A is voted down then other variants such as leaving on terms like Norway has now may emerge. Personally have no idea what will happen next and at what cost to the social cohesion of the country.

How many people who voted in referendum (and on both sides of the debate) will have had even a scintilla of understanding as to the complexity of the situation as it was and how it will be?

[the other bob wilson]

We have probably reached the point where we can have an informed debate about the options for the country. Unfortunately it is probably too late in the day.

Option A

May's deal. It honours the referendum result in that we officially leave the EU but then have a transition period where to all intents and purposes we remain subject to EU rules that runs to the end of 2020 but could extend to the end of 2022. At that point either a backstop kicks in if we haven't negotiated a trade deal with the EU in that time. After transition freedom of movement for EU citizens (out and in) is curtailed and we leave the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies.

The Irish border remains unpoliced but Northern Ireland gets special status. Goods flow freely as we remain aligned to the EU customs code. The level of alignment we have with the EU customs union restricts the ability negotiate trade deals with other third countries. After transition we no longer pay significant amounts to the EU (we may still pay sizeable amounts to remain a member of certain EU institutions) but the net estimated consequence is the UK is £40b worse off over a 15 year period. We are likely to remain subject to a significant amount of EU law going forward with no say in its drafting and the European Court of Justice will hold sway over its interpretation.

Option B

Leave with no deal on 29th March 2019. It honours the referendum result. There is no transition period and from the date of leaving we will engage with the EU as any third country that has not negotiated a trade deal on WTO rule terms. Customs and tariff barriers kick in immediately for all goods entering and leaving the EU from the UK and vice versa. Interim reciprocal arrangements beyond WTO rules could be negotiated on a contingency basis (UK govt has produced technical notices covering over 100 different areas for a no-deal scenario). There are risks in the immediate period after departure that infrastructure may not be in place and delays in movement of goods arise at key points of entry into the UK.

Freedom of movement rights end at withdrawal and the UK can immediately start negotiations with third countries on new trade deals. In the interim they may need to trade with these countries on the basis of any deals negotiated between them and the EU. Payments to the EU will cease and a possible reduction in the amounts the UK has said it pay on leaving could be imposed. There are risks that a hard border would need to be imposed on the island of Ireland. Reports suggest that the UK government estimates that the country will be £150b worse off over 15 years under this scenario. UK parliament will have full sovereignty over its laws with no jurisdiction for the ECJ.

Option C

Remain in the EU. This does not honour the referendum result without the interjection of another vote to override the June 2016 vote. We remain in the single market and the customs union including free movement for EU citizens. We are subject to EU law though we have a say in shaping it but the ultimate arbiter of interpretation remains the ECJ. We continue to make contributions to the EU. Issues over whether Article 50 can be unilaterally rescinded and even if so whether the UK would retain the terms of its membership before the Article 50 notice was served (eg whether the rebate negotiated by Margaret Thatcher would be retained).

If Option A is voted down then other variants such as leaving on terms like Norway has now may emerge. Personally have no idea what will happen next and at what cost to the social cohesion of the country.

Thanks for that. I agree with you about the possible cost to the social cohesion of the country. I don't see anyway out of the situation that satisfies everyone, there are going to be some very angry people around when any attempt for us to get back to "normal" is attempted - not that we're going to be in a position which could be called normal for years yet.

[Eric Cartman]

How many people who voted in referendum (and on both sides of the debate) will have had even a scintilla of understanding as to the complexity of the situation as it was and how it will be?

I blame the people who, for years, said 'just pick an issue and vote based on that'. Effectively saying, don't worry if you don't understand and can't be bothered to seek out further information, just vote based on whatever vague uninformed belief you already have inside you.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

I blame the people who, for years, said 'just pick an issue and vote based on that'. Effectively saying, don't worry if you don't understand and can't be bothered to seek out further information, just vote based on whatever vague uninformed belief you already have inside you.

That is the weakness of democracy methinks. You only have to witness the TV reporters' vox pop interviews in any high street in the land to prove that most people don't seem even to make an effort to inform themselves about important issues that they vote on.

[Wales-Bales]

That is the weakness of democracy methinks. You only have to witness the TV reporters' vox pop interviews in any high street in the land to prove that most people don't seem even to make an effort to inform themselves about important issues that they vote on.

It's actually a weakness of the education system that people can't think critically, but it's probably meant to be that way!

[life on mars]

We have probably reached the point where we can have an informed debate about the options for the country. Unfortunately it is probably too late in the day.

Option A

May's deal. It honours the referendum result in that we officially leave the EU but then have a transition period where to all intents and purposes we remain subject to EU rules that runs to the end of 2020 but could extend to the end of 2022. At that point either a backstop kicks in if we haven't negotiated a trade deal with the EU in that time. After transition freedom of movement for EU citizens (out and in) is curtailed and we leave the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies.

The Irish border remains unpoliced but Northern Ireland gets special status. Goods flow freely as we remain aligned to the EU customs code. The level of alignment we have with the EU customs union restricts the ability negotiate trade deals with other third countries. After transition we no longer pay significant amounts to the EU (we may still pay sizeable amounts to remain a member of certain EU institutions) but the net estimated consequence is the UK is £40b worse off over a 15 year period. We are likely to remain subject to a significant amount of EU law going forward with no say in its drafting and the European Court of Justice will hold sway over its interpretation.

Option B

Leave with no deal on 29th March 2019. It honours the referendum result. There is no transition period and from the date of leaving we will engage with the EU as any third country that has not negotiated a trade deal on WTO rule terms. Customs and tariff barriers kick in immediately for all goods entering and leaving the EU from the UK and vice versa. Interim reciprocal arrangements beyond WTO rules could be negotiated on a contingency basis (UK govt has produced technical notices covering over 100 different areas for a no-deal scenario). There are risks in the immediate period after departure that infrastructure may not be in place and delays in movement of goods arise at key points of entry into the UK.

Freedom of movement rights end at withdrawal and the UK can immediately start negotiations with third countries on new trade deals. In the interim they may need to trade with these countries on the basis of any deals negotiated between them and the EU. Payments to the EU will cease and a possible reduction in the amounts the UK has said it pay on leaving could be imposed. There are risks that a hard border would need to be imposed on the island of Ireland. Reports suggest that the UK government estimates that the country will be £150b worse off over 15 years under this scenario. UK parliament will have full sovereignty over its laws with no jurisdiction for the ECJ.

Option C

Remain in the EU. This does not honour the referendum result without the interjection of another vote to override the June 2016 vote. We remain in the single market and the customs union including free movement for EU citizens. We are subject to EU law though we have a say in shaping it but the ultimate arbiter of interpretation remains the ECJ. We continue to make contributions to the EU. Issues over whether Article 50 can be unilaterally rescinded and even if so whether the UK would retain the terms of its membership before the Article 50 notice was served (eg whether the rebate negotiated by Margaret Thatcher would be retained).

If Option A is voted down then other variants such as leaving on terms like Norway has now may emerge. Personally have no idea what will happen next and at what cost to the social cohesion of the country.

Have to say a cracking summary and read, it's better than what the critics and the oppostion are serving up .

[life on mars]

That is the weakness of democracy methinks. You only have to witness the TV reporters' vox pop interviews in any high street in the land to prove that most people don't seem even to make an effort to inform themselves about important issues that they vote on.

Id said something along the same lines way back and was slated for it ,at least you havd been spared that Lol.

[Eric Cartman]

BBC are up to no good again. Last week the audience and panel of question time was a love in for May's deal and this week they are teaming up with number 10 to push the angle that Corbyn is running scared of a debate even though labour have already agreed a date and time with itv.

Having said that, I still can't work out the point of a televised debate when we don't get to make a decision about anything.

[lardy]

It's all a bit of a laugh

Cabinet Resignation of the Year, shared by Dominic Raab and David Davis - ⁦⁦@FraserNelson⁩: “The first 2 Brexit Secretaries of 2018” #SpecAwards pic.twitter.com/cSjgWkaYB1

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) November 28, 2018

[cyril evans awaydays]

[QUOTE=lardy;4929653]It's all a bit of a laugh

A bit premature in my opinion given there are almost five weeks of 2018 left yet!

[life on mars]

BBC are up to no good again. Last week the audience and panel of question time was a love in for May's deal and this week they are teaming up with number 10 to push the angle that Corbyn is running scared of a debate even though labour have already agreed a date and time with itv.

Having said that, I still can't work out the point of a televised debate when we don't get to make a decision about anything.

Especially as both the debaters want a deal anyway.

[life on mars]

Think this article hits some points well
Let’s be honest about what’s really driving Brexit: bigotry

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...y_to_clipboard

[Wales-Bales]

Plan C - the second referendum

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46416591

[life on mars]

Plan C - the second referendum

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46416591

Wouldn't it be funny if no was even bigger this time around, lol.

I did a small poll recently amongst friends, etc about which way they'd vote again based on the remainers theory folks are more informed ,and it surprised me they were unchanged and most wanted out ,some even more than last time as they think Europe has been bullish in trying to squeeze us into a second referendum as they don't like our first decision.

[Wales-Bales]

Wouldn't it be funny if no was even bigger this time around, lol.

I did a small poll recently amongst friends, etc about which way they'd vote again based on the remainers theory folks are more informed ,and it surprised me they were unchanged and most wanted out ,some even more than last time as they think Europe has been bullish in trying to squeeze us into a second referendum as they don't like our first decision.

No country has ever escaped the EU after a no vote in the first referendum.

[cyril evans awaydays]

No country has ever escaped the EU after a no vote in the first referendum.

What do you mean by escaped the EU?

A territory (Greenland) left the EU after a single referendum and a number of other countries have ratified decisions against further integration on a single referendum such as Sweden and Denmarks' decision not to use the Euro. The overwhelming majority of referendums have been in favour of proposals or have ratified Treaties. The Danes held two votes on the Maastricht Treaty and the Irish two votes on the Treaties of Nice and Lisbon.

So the UK is the only country that has sought to escape the EU. Whether there is a second referendum is still a point of debate.

[cyril evans awaydays]

What do you mean by escaped the EU?

A territory (Greenland) left the EU after a single referendum and a number of other countries have ratified decisions against further integration on a single referendum such as Sweden and Denmarks' decision not to use the Euro. The overwhelming majority of referendums have been in favour of proposals or have ratified Treaties. The Danes held two votes on the Maastricht Treaty and the Irish two votes on the Treaties of Nice and Lisbon.

So the UK is the only country that has sought to escape the EU. Whether there is a second referendum is still a point of debate.

Maybe this wasn't clear enough either. Which country hasn't escaped the EU after a no vote in the first referendum?