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Thread: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

  1. #1

    11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    10 seasons - 30 teams relegated from the Premier league.

    In terms of points won by the bottom 3 after 11 games, only the total at this stage in 2012/13 (6,5,4 pts) is lower than this season. As a general rule of thumb, the lower the points total for the bottom 3 after 11 games, the lower the points total for the bottom 3 after 38 games, though there have been exceptions, most noticeably in 2009/10 when the bottom 3 totalled 25 points at this stage (3rd highest in the 10 years) yet had the lowest points tally of all bottom 3 sides of the decade.

    14 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 after 11 games, 12 were in the bottom half but outside of the relegation zone, 4 were in the top half.

    12 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 of goals conceded after 11 games. 6 were in the top half of such a table. Of those 12, 9 were able to lower the number of goals conceded on average, with 4 scoring less on average as a result.

    7 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 of goals scored after 11 games. 5 were in the top half of such a table. Of those 7, all found ways of scoring more goals on average, with 4 being defensively better as well.

    By the end of the season:

    19 of the 30 relegated sides were in the bottom 3 of the goals conceded table. 10 of those were also in the bottom 3 of the goals conceded after 11 games table.

    15 of the 30 relegated sides were in the bottom 3 of the goals scored table. 5 of those were also in the bottom 3 of the goals scored after 11 games table.

    What does it mean?

    Goodness knows, to be honest.

    3 teams have had less points than us at this stage and survived. Plenty of teams have had worse defensive and scoring records than us and stayed up, though they have had to improve both in order to avoid relegation.

    Basically, if we continue as we have done for the rest of the season, relegation is more likely than not based on happenings over the last decade.

  2. #2

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    10 seasons - 30 teams relegated from the Premier league.

    In terms of points won by the bottom 3 after 11 games, only the total at this stage in 2012/13 (6,5,4 pts) is lower than this season. As a general rule of thumb, the lower the points total for the bottom 3 after 11 games, the lower the points total for the bottom 3 after 38 games, though there have been exceptions, most noticeably in 2009/10 when the bottom 3 totalled 25 points at this stage (3rd highest in the 10 years) yet had the lowest points tally of all bottom 3 sides of the decade.

    14 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 after 11 games, 12 were in the bottom half but outside of the relegation zone, 4 were in the top half.

    12 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 of goals conceded after 11 games. 6 were in the top half of such a table. Of those 12, 9 were able to lower the number of goals conceded on average, with 4 scoring less on average as a result.

    7 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 of goals scored after 11 games. 5 were in the top half of such a table. Of those 7, all found ways of scoring more goals on average, with 4 being defensively better as well.

    By the end of the season:

    19 of the 30 relegated sides were in the bottom 3 of the goals conceded table. 10 of those were also in the bottom 3 of the goals conceded after 11 games table.

    15 of the 30 relegated sides were in the bottom 3 of the goals scored table. 5 of those were also in the bottom 3 of the goals scored after 11 games table.

    What does it mean?

    Goodness knows, to be honest.

    3 teams have had less points than us at this stage and survived. Plenty of teams have had worse defensive and scoring records than us and stayed up, though they have had to improve both in order to avoid relegation.

    Basically, if we continue as we have done for the rest of the season, relegation is more likely than not based on happenings over the last decade.
    Good lord. Who would have though it?

  3. #3

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    If I'm reading this right, statistically, we have a 10% chance of staying up at this point of the season. It's Portsmouth away then.

  4. #4

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie View Post
    Good lord. Who would have though it?
    Yes, it came as a surprise to me!!

  5. #5

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by IanD View Post
    If I'm reading this right, statistically, we have a 10% chance of staying up at this point of the season. It's Portsmouth away then.
    January is going to be very important. The other side of the coin is that all teams under threat of relegation will be looking to spend as well.

  6. #6

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    So everyone's in agreement? 19 points will not be enough to stay up?

  7. #7

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by NYCBlue View Post
    So everyone's in agreement? 19 points will not be enough to stay up?
    17 points was the last projection I saw, would make us the 3rd lowest points ever (equal with Villa) but better than Derby (11) & Sunderland (15)

  8. #8

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    January is going to be very important. The other side of the coin is that all teams under threat of relegation will be looking to spend as well.
    Is there any evidence that teams in the bottom 3 at Christmas who spend a lot in the January window tend to stay up?

  9. #9

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by IanD View Post
    Is there any evidence that teams in the bottom 3 at Christmas who spend a lot in the January window tend to stay up?
    Crikey, there's a challenge! My gut instinct is to say probably not. I reckon it's more important to bring in the right players more than how much is spent. January isn't the best of transfer windows to get the right players in, by all accounts. I suspect (though I could be very wrong here) that more clubs bring in players for the sake of it depending on who they can get, rather than what they need, possibly because the players they need are either too expensive or not available. There's also a possibility that bringing in expensive players who aren't necessarily suitable to a squad, especially like ours, could end up having a negative effect on the team overall, making things worse.

    That's why I reckon January is going to be important. We need to bring in players, that's a certainty, but not players just for the sake of it.

    If I get bored enough later, I'll have a look at the last few seasons to see if there are any trends either way.

  10. #10

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by IanD View Post
    Is there any evidence that teams in the bottom 3 at Christmas who spend a lot in the January window tend to stay up?
    Having been seduced by your question, I've had a brief look. A disclaimer first - all stats come from Soccerbase and Transfermarkt, without lots of time consuming cross referencing, so any errors are down to them.

    I've looked at the last 5 seasons as I couldn't be bothered to do any more! First thing to note is that in 3 of those 5 seasons, 2 of the bottom 3 at Christmas were relegated; only 1 of the bottom 3 was relegated in the other two seasons. I've looked at the January transfer activity of all the sides that were in the bottom 3 at Christmas, plus the teams that went on to be relegated if they were outside of the bottom 3 when Santa came.

    The three biggest spenders from that list were Newcastle, Norwich (both 2015/16) and Stoke (2017/18). All three of those clubs were outside the bottom 3 at Christmas but went on to be relegated. In fact, of the 9 highest spenders, 7 went down.

    Of the 7 clubs who were outside the bottom 3 at Christmas but went on to go down, 5 spent in the transfer market. However, 6 of the 7 clubs that were in the bottom 3 at Christmas but survived spent money.

    6 clubs spent no money at all. One of those survived (Bournemouth, last season).

    7 clubs spent 10m or less. 4 survived.

    9 clubs spent over 10m. 2 survived. No team spending over 20m survived. In fact, those clubs went from safety at Christmas to the Championship in 5 months.

    In short, there's a suggestion that the more you spend in January, the more problems it causes. However, spending nothing in January is likely to result in relegation as well if you're already down there.

  11. #11

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    Having been seduced by your question, I've had a brief look. A disclaimer first - all stats come from Soccerbase and Transfermarkt, without lots of time consuming cross referencing, so any errors are down to them.

    I've looked at the last 5 seasons as I couldn't be bothered to do any more! First thing to note is that in 3 of those 5 seasons, 2 of the bottom 3 at Christmas were relegated; only 1 of the bottom 3 was relegated in the other two seasons. I've looked at the January transfer activity of all the sides that were in the bottom 3 at Christmas, plus the teams that went on to be relegated if they were outside of the bottom 3 when Santa came.

    The three biggest spenders from that list were Newcastle, Norwich (both 2015/16) and Stoke (2017/18). All three of those clubs were outside the bottom 3 at Christmas but went on to be relegated. In fact, of the 9 highest spenders, 7 went down.

    Of the 7 clubs who were outside the bottom 3 at Christmas but went on to go down, 5 spent in the transfer market. However, 6 of the 7 clubs that were in the bottom 3 at Christmas but survived spent money.

    6 clubs spent no money at all. One of those survived (Bournemouth, last season).

    7 clubs spent 10m or less. 4 survived.

    9 clubs spent over 10m. 2 survived. No team spending over 20m survived. In fact, those clubs went from safety at Christmas to the Championship in 5 months.

    In short, there's a suggestion that the more you spend in January, the more problems it causes. However, spending nothing in January is likely to result in relegation as well if you're already down there.
    Excellent piece of research there. I hope it didn't take you too long. Seems like sensible spending around the 10 million mark is needed in the January window. Enough to make a difference but not upset the apple cart. A striker or two from abroad or the lower divisions hungry (and able) to find the back of the net. Tomlin can go. Might get a few quid for him and reduce the wage bill.

  12. #12

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    10 seasons - 30 teams relegated from the Premier league.

    In terms of points won by the bottom 3 after 11 games, only the total at this stage in 2012/13 (6,5,4 pts) is lower than this season. As a general rule of thumb, the lower the points total for the bottom 3 after 11 games, the lower the points total for the bottom 3 after 38 games, though there have been exceptions, most noticeably in 2009/10 when the bottom 3 totalled 25 points at this stage (3rd highest in the 10 years) yet had the lowest points tally of all bottom 3 sides of the decade.

    14 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 after 11 games, 12 were in the bottom half but outside of the relegation zone, 4 were in the top half.

    12 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 of goals conceded after 11 games. 6 were in the top half of such a table. Of those 12, 9 were able to lower the number of goals conceded on average, with 4 scoring less on average as a result.

    7 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 of goals scored after 11 games. 5 were in the top half of such a table. Of those 7, all found ways of scoring more goals on average, with 4 being defensively better as well.

    By the end of the season:

    19 of the 30 relegated sides were in the bottom 3 of the goals conceded table. 10 of those were also in the bottom 3 of the goals conceded after 11 games table.

    15 of the 30 relegated sides were in the bottom 3 of the goals scored table. 5 of those were also in the bottom 3 of the goals scored after 11 games table.

    What does it mean?

    Goodness knows, to be honest.


    3 teams have had less points than us at this stage and survived. Plenty of teams have had worse defensive and scoring records than us and stayed up, though they have had to improve both in order to avoid relegation.

    Basically, if we continue as we have done for the rest of the season, relegation is more likely than not based on happenings over the last decade.
    Is the highlighted bit the executive summary?

  13. #13

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by IanD View Post
    Excellent piece of research there. I hope it didn't take you too long. Seems like sensible spending around the 10 million mark is needed in the January window. Enough to make a difference but not upset the apple cart. A striker or two from abroad or the lower divisions hungry (and able) to find the back of the net. Tomlin can go. Might get a few quid for him and reduce the wage bill.
    Further to that, I woke in a sweat thinking of another angle - what about all the promoted teams in their first season? How many survived and how much did they need to spend etc?

    It's interesting to note that 9 of the last 15 promoted sides stayed up the following season, including all of last season's newcomers.

    3 promoted clubs spent nothing in January with 1 surviving (Newcastle last season, unless Soccerbase is wrong).

    Of the 6 highest spending in January promoted clubs, 3 went down, with 2 of those being outside the relegation places at Christmas. Of the other 3, Watford spent the most in 2015/16 (estimates of around 26.5m). They were 7th at Christmas and surely safe in any case though their post-Christmas form plummetted. Bournemouth's form, the same season, remained similar after shelling out something like 17m, as did Burnley's a year later having spent a similar amount.

    Brighton, Huddersfield (last season) and Hull in 2013/14 were healthily placed and spent just over 10m each. Palace and Leicester were bottom in 2013/14 and 2014/15 respectively, spent around 10 and hauled themselves to safety. We spent modestly on a few Norwegians and went down.

    My last bit of analysis was to think about how has transfer money affected the points a team has won and there is little correlation between the two. 3 of the top 4 spenders saw their points average decrease, as did 3 of the bottom 4 spenders. Only 5 promoted sides saw their points average increase after Christmas, including only one team that spent nothing. The rise of both Leicester and Palace was remarkable.

    I think your suggestion of a couple of players around 10m, maybe more given that prices are further inflated with tv money, is statistically most likely to make a positive difference, though this certainly isn't guaranteed at all!! It's all about getting the right players and hope we continue to grow in this division. I forget sometimes that we have a squad virtually bereft of top flight experience. They're learning on the job and hopefully that will help us as the season progresses.

  14. #14

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    Is the highlighted bit the executive summary?
    Yes, that's my in-depth summary.

  15. #15

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    10 seasons - 30 teams relegated from the Premier league.

    In terms of points won by the bottom 3 after 11 games, only the total at this stage in 2012/13 (6,5,4 pts) is lower than this season. As a general rule of thumb, the lower the points total for the bottom 3 after 11 games, the lower the points total for the bottom 3 after 38 games, though there have been exceptions, most noticeably in 2009/10 when the bottom 3 totalled 25 points at this stage (3rd highest in the 10 years) yet had the lowest points tally of all bottom 3 sides of the decade.

    14 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 after 11 games, 12 were in the bottom half but outside of the relegation zone, 4 were in the top half.

    12 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 of goals conceded after 11 games. 6 were in the top half of such a table. Of those 12, 9 were able to lower the number of goals conceded on average, with 4 scoring less on average as a result.

    7 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 of goals scored after 11 games. 5 were in the top half of such a table. Of those 7, all found ways of scoring more goals on average, with 4 being defensively better as well.

    By the end of the season:

    19 of the 30 relegated sides were in the bottom 3 of the goals conceded table. 10 of those were also in the bottom 3 of the goals conceded after 11 games table.

    15 of the 30 relegated sides were in the bottom 3 of the goals scored table. 5 of those were also in the bottom 3 of the goals scored after 11 games table.

    What does it mean?

    Goodness knows, to be honest.

    3 teams have had less points than us at this stage and survived. Plenty of teams have had worse defensive and scoring records than us and stayed up, though they have had to improve both in order to avoid relegation.

    Basically, if we continue as we have done for the rest of the season, relegation is more likely than not based on happenings over the last decade.
    Stats for the sake of stats. What are you saying? A team second from bottom with one win in 11 games is likely to go down?

  16. #16

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by JennyWren View Post
    Stats for the sake of stats. What are you saying? A team second from bottom with one win in 11 games is likely to go down?
    ...but if the club spends around 10 million wisely in the January window we have a better chance of staying up compared to clubs that don't spend or spend too much. So.....where's the next gem coming from? Real Madrid?😁

  17. #17

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by JennyWren View Post
    Stats for the sake of stats. What are you saying? A team second from bottom with one win in 11 games is likely to go down?
    32% of your posts contain a
    44% of your posts contain no words at all.
    8% of your posts contain stats (for the sake of stats).
    0% of your posts contain something constructive.


    Some more stats (for the sake of stats).

  18. #18

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee View Post
    32% of your posts contain a
    44% of your posts contain no words at all.
    8% of your posts contain stats (for the sake of stats).
    0% of your posts contain something constructive.


    Some more stats (for the sake of stats).

  19. #19

    Re: 11 games in - a look at the last 10 Premier League seasons


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