The next 6 games - their importance

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Following on from a comment I made a few days ago, I thought I'd have a statistical look at what we need to be looking for from these games if we're looking to stay up.

The average number of points needed to survive in the Premier League is roughly 36 points, so I'll use that figure as one we'd need for survival.

8 points from 13 games is an average of 0.62 per game. Over the course of the season, that's 23 points and guaranteed relegation (and almost certain bottom spot). Of course, we've played everyone in the top 6 and have only two sides from the current top half left to face, so our current point ratio is perhaps not as reflective of where we stand at the moment - we'll have a much better idea come Boxing day, when we've played everybody.

If, at the half way stage, we would be looking to get half of the points needed for likely survival, we're going to need another 10 points from the next 6 games, almost 3 times as many as we've had so far. This isn't beyond the realms of possibility given the fixtures we have. The next 6 games will tell us lots about the team, whether survival is likely or not.

Suppose we kept our current points average between now and Christmas. That would give us 4 points, meaning we'd need another 24 over the second half of the season. While that's not necessarily unachievable, that's going to mean a scenario of something like 6 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats. If we'd expect to lose all of our games to the top 6, there isn't much room for manoeuvre against the rest of the division. 7 wins, 3 draws would allow 3 extra defeats against the remaining 13 teams. Still a very tough ask.

If we could get 2 wins and 2 draws from our next 6, we'd need 20 points. That gives the scope for an extra defeat - a tall order, but not quite as tough. Hopefully we'll have brought in a few players to help us over the second half of the season.

If we could somehow get to 18 points by Christmas, 4 wins, 6 draws over the second half of the season would suffice.

That's why I think our next 6 games are critical. Do badly and we'll have too much to do.

Having said all of that, there are quite a few examples of sides that have been utter gash in the first half of the season and have gone on an incredible run to avoid relegation.

[Des Parrot]

I've no doubt that the 7 games between now & the end of December will totally dictate the rest of the season and maybe make the transfer window fairly meaningless. This run of games is a huge opportunity to get some decent points or conversely lose touch.

We should not look at any of the 7 as a given defeat, there is a genuine chance not to lose any of them, unless you're a defeatist. In my opinion we should be looking for 11 points as a minimum from the 7. 2 wins & 5 draws or 3 wins & 2 draws, either will do.

[life on mars]

Good result tonight would help no end ,draw at Hammers ,beat Saints ,woudl later matters , none of which in my view is beyond us if we battle

[Duggie]

Agree with all of that. Feeling positive for tonight too. However, lose too many in Dec and I can’t see the club bothering with new players in Jan.

[Duggie]

Agree with all of that. Feeling positive for tonight too. However, lose too many in Dec and I can’t see the club bothering with new players in Jan.

Buzzing after that, loved how Patterson blocked off their keeper for the equaliser. Screamer from Hoilett as well. great way to start the weekend. 1 down, 5 to go.

[BLUEAWAY]

Following on from a comment I made a few days ago, I thought I'd have a statistical look at what we need to be looking for from these games if we're looking to stay up.

The average number of points needed to survive in the Premier League is roughly 36 points, so I'll use that figure as one we'd need for survival.


8 points from 13 games is an average of 0.62 per game. Over the course of the season, that's 23 points and guaranteed relegation (and almost certain bottom spot). Of course, we've played everyone in the top 6 and have only two sides from the current top half left to face, so our current point ratio is perhaps not as reflective of where we stand at the moment - we'll have a much better idea come Boxing day, when we've played everybody.

If, at the half way stage, we would be looking to get half of the points needed for likely survival, we're going to need another 10 points from the next 6 games, almost 3 times as many as we've had so far. This isn't beyond the realms of possibility given the fixtures we have. The next 6 games will tell us lots about the team, whether survival is likely or not.

Suppose we kept our current points average between now and Christmas. That would give us 4 points, meaning we'd need another 24 over the second half of the season. While that's not necessarily unachievable, that's going to mean a scenario of something like 6 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats. If we'd expect to lose all of our games to the top 6, there isn't much room for manoeuvre against the rest of the division. 7 wins, 3 draws would allow 3 extra defeats against the remaining 13 teams. Still a very tough ask.

If we could get 2 wins and 2 draws from our next 6, we'd need 20 points. That gives the scope for an extra defeat - a tall order, but not quite as tough. Hopefully we'll have brought in a few players to help us over the second half of the season.

If we could somehow get to 18 points by Christmas, 4 wins, 6 draws over the second half of the season would suffice.

That's why I think our next 6 games are critical. Do badly and we'll have too much to do.

Having said all of that, there are quite a few examples of sides that have been utter gash in the first half of the season and have gone on an incredible run to avoid relegation.

Have a look at tomorrow’s, Tuesday’s and next weekends fixtures.
It could be an interesting 8 days.