Very boring relegation stats after 19 games

[Eric the Half a Bee]

WARNING! This thread contains stats.

After 19 games, I think we nearly all agree that, to be out of the relegation places at the half way stage is a great achievement. We've won more games than 4 other teams and have scored more goals than 5 other sides.

In terms of points, I thought I'd look at previous Premier league seasons at the halfway stage and see how this season compares.

This season, the bottom 3 have won a total of 33 points between them. It may come as no surprise that is the joint lowest in Premier League history, since the cull to 20 sides, and was only matched in 2005/6. The highest total for the bottom 3 at this stage was in 2010/11, with a massive 53 points between them. Our previous relegation season in 2013/14 had a tally of 45 points for the bottom 3.

Some suggest the Premier League is getting worse. 5 of the last 9 lowest point tallies have come in the last 7 seasons, though these stats are skewed somewhat by the bottom team having a very low number of points. There's little evidence to suggest the bottom of the division was better a decade and more ago.

There has yet to be a season (since the 1994/5 cull) where all of the teams in the bottom 3 survived relegation. 41 of the last 69 teams in the bottom 3 after 19 games went down, so teams in the bottom 3 are more likely to be relegated.

20 out of 23 teams positioned 20th were relegated.
11 out of 23 teams positioned 19th were relegated.
10 out of 23 teams positioned 18th were relegated.

Of those outside the relegation zone, 11 in 17th went down, 5 in 16th, 2 in 15th, 9 in the rest of the bottom half and 1 in the top half (Blackpool).

In 6 of the last 23 seasons, our 15 point tally would have kept us out of the bottom 3.

If then, we know we're a part of a poor season in terms of points at the foot of the table, what is likely to happen for the remainder? More often than not, when the bottom 3 have a crap points tally after 19 games, that is echoed at the end of the season, where the 3 sides that go down have a lower points tally than average. There are a handful of occasions where teams at the half way stage have won a higher than normal number of points only for the bottom 3 to sink like a stone.

The average number of points won by the bottom 3 during the second half of the season is 9 more than during the first half. This average increases to 16 points for the 10 seasons with the lowest points tallies at this stage of the season.

The lowest points tally of the bottom 3 at the end of the season is 79 points, in 2005/06. This is undoubtely due to Sunderland ending up with 15 points in total (they had 6 points after 19 games). The seasons where the bottom team have had unusually low points result in the lowest overall points tallies for the bottom 3, no surprise there, but these skew the stats a little.

It would be a big surprise if the bottom 3 at the end of the season have roughly double the current points tally. As the bottom team has 10 points, and is in my view unlikely to have a very low tally at the end of the season, it's pretty certain that the bottom 3 by the end of the season will have accumulated over 80 points between them, I'd guess around 85-90 points. That's probably requiring around 34-35 points for survival, meaning we need to get 5 more than we have during the first half of the season.

For anyone still awake, I have some free porn tips if interested.

[AlwaysAway2]

Yes please Eric
Re the free porn tips.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Yes please Eric
Re the free porn tips.

First person to read it to the end!!

[Former Labour leader]

First person to read it to the end!!

and me!

😜

[blue matt]

Yep, that thread contained stats

So are we staying up then ? ? /

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Yep, that thread contained stats

So are we staying up then ? ? /

I'll let you know in May.

[Des Parrot]

Thanks Eric, I've got stats withdrawal having been off work for 10 days. Can you do a bit on the Euro:Zloty exchange rate?