Light aircraft gone down from Nantes to Cardiff near Guernsey last night?

[Wales-Bales]

Had they made landfall there would have been time for a mayday call. Everything points to a sudden, uncontrolable, catastrophic event for which neither pilot, nor passenger, were adequately prepared. Even if there was a successful ditching, survivability, given the conditions and probable location, is close to zero without immediate rescue.

The request for a descent from 5,000ft to 2,300ft is also significant, as there are specific reasons why you would do that. So it seems that whatever issues they first encountered were not resolved, or an entirely new issue developed over and above the original issue.

[goats]

One thing I missed in all this chaos, was the same plane used to fly him over when he signed on the weekend? And who flew it if so?
Did the missing plane also fly from the UK on Monday to pick him up? I know it’s kind of irrelevant now but just wondered if the missing plane had been flying ok before the fateful trip....

[Croesy Blue]

Haha, I'm hardly an expert dear boy. It should be blindingly obvious to anybody with half a brain and rudimentry analytical skills. Therefore, I would suggest that you work on your own shortcomings, rather than speak about that which you do not know. Cheers

You can’t get a full understanding of events by reading messageboards and newspaper accounts, aircraft investigators have years of training you can’t just jump to conclusions like that with such little actual evidence.

Yesterday you were saying a huge number of this type of plane crash now you’re saying definitely icing or pilot error. Sometimes it’s better to leave it to the experts.

[Harry Paget Flashman]

You can’t get a full understanding of events by reading messageboards and newspaper accounts, aircraft investigators have years of training you can’t just jump to conclusions like that with such little actual evidence.

Yesterday you were saying a huge number of this type of plane crash now you’re saying definitely icing or pilot error. Sometimes it’s better to leave it to the experts.

You need to try some deductive reasoning.

[Gofer Blue]

One of the posts on the pilots forum got me thinking. It was something along the lines of all we know is that they dropped of radar near Cacetes lighthouse. It is 80% likely that they ditched there but the other 20% is anywhere from Northern France, Cornwall, Exmore, Dartmore or the Severn estuary.

Also ditches on water have an 88% survival rate on light aircraft.

Should the new search party follow the existing flight plan just to see if they made to land and crashed somewhere remote?

We are talking about the English Channel here not the Pacific Ocean! (with its multitude of small uninhabited islands). Where is there any "remote" island between the Channel Islands and the south of England?

[islandblue]

One thing I missed in all this chaos, was the same plane used to fly him over when he signed on the weekend? And who flew it if so?
Did the missing plane also fly from the UK on Monday to pick him up? I know it’s kind of irrelevant now but just wondered if the missing plane had been flying ok before the fateful trip....

A twin engined exective jet flew him here on Friday. He flew back to Nantes on Saturday on the plane that is missing.

[IanD]

One thing I missed in all this chaos, was the same plane used to fly him over when he signed on the weekend? And who flew it if so?
Did the missing plane also fly from the UK on Monday to pick him up? I know it’s kind of irrelevant now but just wondered if the missing plane had been flying ok before the fateful trip....

I think the club paid for a twin engine (jet) commercial air taxi. The pilot's forum had details of the flights. Therefore can't say for definite what state the missing plane was in.

[Gofer Blue]

A twin engined exective jet flew him here on Friday. He flew back to Nantes on Saturday on the plane that is missing.

So much has been written I may be mistaken here, but wasn't it reported that Sala commented on his having a bumpy ride on that flight back to Nantes on the Saturday? That's why I was surprised that he would use the same plane to go back to Cardiff on the Monday - unless, as I have said in an earlier post, that he was desperate not to be late for his first day in the new job.

[Wales-Bales]

You can’t get a full understanding of events by reading messageboards and newspaper accounts, aircraft investigators have years of training you can’t just jump to conclusions like that with such little actual evidence.

Yesterday you were saying a huge number of this type of plane crash now you’re saying definitely icing or pilot error. Sometimes it’s better to leave it to the experts.

Questionable Piper Malibu safety record = fact
Icing present at 5,000ft = fact
Pilot requested descent to 2,300ft = fact
No maday call = fact

[Wales-Bales]

You need to try some deductive reasoning.

F.O.C

[Vindec]

Post deleted by Vindec due to incorrect information

[Croesy Blue]

Questionable Piper Malibu safety record = fact
Icing present at 5,000ft = fact
Pilot requested descent to 2,300ft = fact
No maday call = fact

Other issues present - unknown

There’s a good chance you’re right but you can’t say that’s the only possible causes at this stage.

[Harry Monk]

Other issues present - unknown

There’s a good chance you’re right but you can’t say that’s the only possible causes at this stage.

Correct. ALL possibilities have be considered and ruled out before you have the most likely option.

[Wales-Bales]

Correct. ALL possibilities have be considered and ruled out before you have the most likely option.

Currently know facts have ruled out a number of possibilities.

[Harry Monk]

Currently know facts have ruled out a number of possibilities.

I've yet to see that evidence.