Fixture breakdown. Sad bastard time.

[splott parker]

Top six teams may not be relevant in Brighton’s case, we’ve beaten them and to be two up at Craven Cottage and then concede four in the second half doesn’t bode well at all.

Sorry Mr Shhh this was meant to be in reply to Mr Soul’68 👍

[Divine Wright]

I reckon we need results at Southampton and Burnley. Lose both of those and we won't recover the ground. Points at Fulham are probably essential as well. If we're in the bottom 3 at the end of March we're down. The pressure to win games we haven't looked like winning will prove too much.

If 36 points ends up being the survival point, we need a better points average between now and the end of the season than we've managed.

Let's split up our home and away form.

Home. 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats. 4 expected defeats to top 6 sides. 2 defeats to Leicester and Burnley. Leicester have been better on the road and we managed a win there. Disappointing draws to Newcastle and Huddersfield (where we could have had no points at all). 5 wins against the rest.

Away. Erm, crap. Fortunate 3 points at a team with a poor home record, fortunate draw at Palace and a snooze draw against 10-man, surely relegated Huddersfield.

If we need 14 points, our winnable home games are arguably Watford, Everton, West Ham and Palace. That's not enough points. One of those will beat us, maybe 2 or 3. West Ham are back in a bit of a lull, Everton are poor at the moment. Watford took us to the cleaners earlier in the season despite our late fightback. Assume defeats to Chelsea and Liverpool. 12 points from 6 games is a far higher average than we've managed at home this season, which stands at 1.3. If we keep that going, we'll take another 8 points at home, which I'd take right now from our remaining fixtures.

That means getting 6 points away. Fulham, Southampton, Burnley. Biggest three away trips this season. We're in the land of needing results in most of our games against teams near the bottom.

Agreed we will need to take a point from Burnley and Southampton. The rest of this month will also be interesting as Warnock will likely be looking to get wins against both Everton AND Watford.

If we pulled off a minor miracle in taking 7 points from the rest of February we’d be really well positioned to reach between 36 and 39 points by the end of the season.

The more I look at it, I feel this month’s results could turn out to be decisive.