Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
I reckon we need results at Southampton and Burnley. Lose both of those and we won't recover the ground. Points at Fulham are probably essential as well. If we're in the bottom 3 at the end of March we're down. The pressure to win games we haven't looked like winning will prove too much.
If 36 points ends up being the survival point, we need a better points average between now and the end of the season than we've managed.
Let's split up our home and away form.
Home. 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats. 4 expected defeats to top 6 sides. 2 defeats to Leicester and Burnley. Leicester have been better on the road and we managed a win there. Disappointing draws to Newcastle and Huddersfield (where we could have had no points at all). 5 wins against the rest.
Away. Erm, crap. Fortunate 3 points at a team with a poor home record, fortunate draw at Palace and a snooze draw against 10-man, surely relegated Huddersfield.
If we need 14 points, our winnable home games are arguably Watford, Everton, West Ham and Palace. That's not enough points. One of those will beat us, maybe 2 or 3. West Ham are back in a bit of a lull, Everton are poor at the moment. Watford took us to the cleaners earlier in the season despite our late fightback. Assume defeats to Chelsea and Liverpool. 12 points from 6 games is a far higher average than we've managed at home this season, which stands at 1.3. If we keep that going, we'll take another 8 points at home, which I'd take right now from our remaining fixtures.
That means getting 6 points away. Fulham, Southampton, Burnley. Biggest three away trips this season. We're in the land of needing results in most of our games against teams near the bottom.