A few months ago most of us were safely predicting an all-time low points tally for survival this season given how poorly many teams at the bottom were doing. With Huddersfield in dire straights and Fulham not much better, it's starting to look like there's a race to avoid being the other team in the bottom 3.

However, thoughts of a low points tally might have been a bit premature. I did some research a few months ago suggesting that teams who had relatively low points totals in the first few months usually improved.

Here's a table showing the average number of points for the team in 18th at the end of each month of this season (with points average):

August 0.33
September 0.29
October 0.5
November 0.69
December 0.75
January 0.79
Current 0.92

Given this has steadily risen during the season we might not be looking at such a low total needed for survival after all. The current points average projected after 38 games means 35 points might be the cutoff point. The average is 36. It's not inconceivable that the team in 18th will end up averaging a point a game if the trend continues. That means 38 points (maybe 39) needed for survival. That becomes one of the higher points totals required to stay up (only 5 times in 23 season has more than 38 points been needed).