We've got 7 at the moment. Yes, this is a more crude method than looking at points, but maybe it forms a target as well.

Looking back over the last 20 PL seasons, the highest number of wins acheived by a relegated side is 10. This has happened 5 times in 20 seasons. 9 has been the highest on another 5 occasions, followed by 8 (9 times) and 7 (once). No team has won 11 games and been relegated.

It's worth noting that all bar one team that was relegated with 10 wins had less draws than wins. This is an unusual occurrance, happening to less than a third of all relegated teams over the last 2 decades. It's worth pointing out this as we have far fewer draws than wins. In those seasons where 10 wins still saw sides relegated, there were sides above them with less wins but much more draws.

It goes without saying that if we could have managed another 5-6 draws, we'd be comfortable at the moment. Only Fulham and Huddersfield have lost more matches than us. It is maybe more worrying that teams with the most losses in a season are more likely to go down than those with the fewest wins, simply because of the number of draws.

No side in 20 years has gone down with 11 wins, which we're 4 wins away from achieving. If we got that plus a couple of draws, 39 points might be enough. 37 might not be. 11 wins should mean survival, but because of the low number of draws we've managed (and therefore high number of defeats), that's not guaranteed.