AAIB INTERIM REPORT

[IanD]

Channel Islands weather report says freezing was present in the area at 3,000-4,000ft. The pilot descended twice with permission, so could have been experiencing some icing problems. No mayday call is consistent with a sudden uncontrolled landing.

The report states that, at one point, the plane was descending at 7,000ft per minute, roughly 80mph. Not sure if that means vertically. Also, the plane was going up and down, not just a general descent. Looks like the pilot was struggling to keep control. The pics in the report show the catastrophic damage to the plane with the engine detatched and part of the tail missing. No wonder the pilot hasn't been found.

[Flyer46]

The report states that, at one point, the plane was descending at 7,000ft per minute, roughly 80mph. Not sure if that means vertically. Also, the plane was going up and down, not just a general descent. Looks like the pilot was struggling to keep control. The pics in the report show the catastrophic damage to the plane with the engine detatched and part of the tail missing. No wonder the pilot hasn't been found.

descending at 7,000ft per minute is a reference to vertical speed.
Most GA Aircraft have a VSI gauge that ranges +2000fpm-2000fpm so 7000fpm is not a controlled climb or descent
United-Technologies-VSI-P-N-7000-Vertical-speed-indicator.jpg
Some high performance aircraft ( i.e Aerobatic or hot rod aircraft ) have a VSI gauge that ranges +4000fpm -4000fpm
8-210.jpg
Some high performance turbo props & jets have a VSI gauge that ranges +6000fpm -6000fpm ( which is a very steep climb or descent)
VAR-BENDIX.jpg

So a 7000 ft per minute descent is a nigh near vertical dive in a Piper PA46 Malibu
7000ft per minute is the same as 80mph in a horizontal distance, but the Malibu would have been doing 180mph in level flight & the report states 7000fpm downward to be in a dive @ 180mph with airspeed increasing on a descent path of 7000ft downward trajectory is a definite vertical dive.

[Duggie]

The thing is, the AAIB are not there to apportion any blame, their job is to establish the facts of what happened as best as they can. The style of their report reflects this, i.e. it’s a list of facts along with some explanation for us non-aviation types.

They won’t be holding anything back pending any potential legal action because they won’t be taking any, but on the other hand they won’t publish anything they are not certain about either.

[Wales-Bales]

The thing is, the AAIB are not there to apportion any blame, their job is to establish the facts of what happened as best as they can. The style of their report reflects this, i.e. it’s a list of facts along with some explanation for us non-aviation types.

They won’t be holding anything back pending any potential legal action because they won’t be taking any, but on the other hand they won’t publish anything they are not certain about either.

They could have withheld specific pieces of information that are part of an ongoing criminal investigation.

[life on mars]

Oh thank God there's someone else

And me twice Ignored it on that mistaken basis ,then I realised it wasn't ****, as folks were contributing and they had brains.

[IanD]

As the interim report is now in the public domain we are free to talk about any part of the interim report, I will pick out a few paragraphs that are very relevant that we wouldn't previously have made comments on.

(1) At about 2015:30 hrs, N264DB started to make a gradual left turn, which was followed at
about 2016:10 hrs by a right turn of approximately 180°. During this turn, data from two
independent radars (Guernsey and Jersey) showed the aircraft descend to an altitude
of about 1,600 ft at an average rate of approximately 7,000 ft/min. A few seconds later
(at 2016:34 hrs) the final secondary radar return was recorded, which indicated that the
aircraft may have climbed rapidly to about 2,300 ft. Two more primary radar returns
were recorded, timed at 2016:38 hrs and 2016:50 hrs respectively, but it is not yet known
whether they represent valid returns from the aircraft.

A descent of 7000ft is not a controlled descent rate, an ascent from 1600ft to 2300ft in a few seconds is not a controlled climb rate They are most likely attributed to the pilot having lost control in spatial disorientation or through disturbed airflow due to Ice build up causing the pilot to be chasing an artificial reading erroneously

(2)A PPL does not allow a pilot to carry passengers for reward; to do so requires a commercial
licence. The basis on which the passenger was being carried on N264DB has not yet
been established but, previously, the pilot had carried passengers on the basis of ‘cost
sharing’. Cost sharing allows a private pilot to carry passengers and for those passengers
to contribute towards the actual cost of the flight. Cost sharing brings benefits to private
pilots who, by sharing the expense of their flying, can fly more than they might otherwise
be able to, thereby increasing their level of experience. A higher level of regulatory burden
applies to commercial, compared with private flights (such as more stringent medical,
licencing and airworthiness requirements), and the additional requirements increase the
level of safety assurance. Therefore, although the UK, EU and US regulatory authorities
allow cost sharing, they apply restrictions to it.

As already stated in my previous posts, Dave Ibbotson was a PPL that disallowed him from flying paying passengers, so the emphasis on whether he was conducting a private flight or a commercial flight is highly relevant & something I have covered in previous posts.

(3)The pilot of N264DB held an EASA PPL, issued by the CAA in the UK, and an FAA PPL,
issued on the basis of his EASA PPL. It is thought that the pilot’s licence and logbook
were lost with the aircraft and so the ratings on his licences and their validity, and the
extent of his recent flying have not yet been determined.

Having seen a copy of Dave Ibbotson's EASA PPL I know that it clearly states 'DAY ONLY' & that is due to his colourblindness & I know exactly what licence privileges he had. His licence privileges didn't allow Night Flight nor Instrument only flight. ( I still have his licence copies on file & they are the same copies that the AAIB & CAA have been given in this investigation )

(4)The pilot had an FAA PPL issued on the basis of his EASA PPL. His logbook and licence
were not recovered from the aircraft, and the ratings on his licences and their validity
dates have not yet been established.

I find this paragraph slightly bizarre because I have seen a copy of his licence & the ratings attached, so I am pretty sure that the AAIB & CAA have seen the same details as I have.

Now, I will await the questions from anyone who thinks I put any speculation into my previous posts.... I have only ever stated facts that I could release & now the Interim report is in the Public Domain I can be part of an 'Open Chat'

On this aircraft deicing equipment was installed. Can you confirm if this applies only to carb. deicing? Presumably nothing to do with heating leading edges or similar. Also, could the erratic decrease, increase, decrease in altitude be partly explained by localised downdrafts, updrafts and wind shear associated with with an approaching cold front? Could the aircraft have been battered by hail?

[Flyer46]

On this aircraft deicing equipment was installed. Can you confirm if this applies only to carb. deicing? Presumably nothing to do with heating leading edges or similar. Also, could the erratic decrease, increase, decrease in altitude be partly explained by localised downdrafts, updrafts and wind shear associated with with an approaching cold front? Could the aircraft have been battered by hail?

The PA46 Malibu range nearly all have FIKI ( Flight Into Known Icing ) capabilities. I believe N264DB had de-icing boots on the leading edges of the wings & leading edge of tailplane & also the leading edges of the elevator ( highlighted in yellow boxes )
d82238a69c3c3a01313df1e93596c862115b71cb.jpg
These are hydraulically inflated to break off Ice build on these surfaces ( if they have a pin hole or leak, they fail to work )

It is not known (by me) if they were serviceable on N264DB or whether the pilot understood the procedure to use them correctly

The engine in the PA46 Malibu is a fuel injected engine so carb icing isn't an issue.

My assumptions on the erratic decrease, increase, decrease in altitude are one of two scenarios:
(1) The pitot head froze up & instruments failed to function correctly, thereby the pilot chasing the needles was fighting to keep what he thought was level flight
(2) He got Spatially disorientated & just simply lost control & was pulling & pushing at the controls trying to regain level flight.

[Sky High Bluebird]

The PA46 Malibu range nearly all have FIKI ( Flight Into Known Icing ) capabilities. I believe N264DB had de-icing boots on the leading edges of the wings & leading edge of tailplane & also the leading edges of the elevator ( highlighted in yellow boxes )
d82238a69c3c3a01313df1e93596c862115b71cb.jpg
These are hydraulically inflated to break off Ice build on these surfaces ( if they have a pin hole or leak, they fail to work )

It is not known (by me) if they were serviceable on N264DB or whether the pilot understood the procedure to use them correctly

The engine in the PA46 Malibu is a fuel injected engine so carb icing isn't an issue.

My assumptions on the erratic decrease, increase, decrease in altitude are one of two scenarios:
(1) The pitot head froze up & instruments failed to function correctly, thereby the pilot chasing the needles was fighting to keep what he thought was level flight
(2) He got Spatially disorientated & just simply lost control & was pulling & pushing at the controls trying to regain level flight.

Hydraulically inflated de icing boots ?

If as you are claiming that you are a PA46 pilot you may want to brush up on your systems knowledge and avoid Flying in icing conditions for the time being

[Heisenberg]

Hydraulically operated de icing boots ?

If as you are claiming that you are a PA46 pilot you may want to brush up on your systems knowledge and avoid Flying in icing conditions for the time being

[Flyer46]

Hydraulically inflated de icing boots ?

If as you are claiming that you are a PA46 pilot you may want to brush up on your systems knowledge and avoid Flying in icing conditions for the time being

I don't need to brush up on my systems knowledge and avoid Flying in icing conditions for the time being, I am fully aware that I should have said pneumatic, when doing quite a few things at the same time I am not infallible & posting on here is in spare moments when I am not exactly focusing on this board but a 'calling out' appears & I answer 'half cocked' because there are so many naysayers on this messageboard.

I know the PA46 Systems well, if the deceased pilot knew them he would probably still be alive today..... I do know that the deceased pilot hadn't even looked at the POH so I guess that is testament to RTFM being a good way to stay alive.

[Sky High Bluebird]

I don't need to brush up on my systems knowledge and avoid Flying in icing conditions for the time being, I am fully aware that I should have said pneumatic, when doing quite a few things at the same time I am not infallible & posting on here is in spare moments when I am not exactly focusing on this board but a 'calling out' appears & I answer 'half cocked' because there are so many naysayers on this messageboard.

I know the PA46 Systems well, if the deceased pilot knew them he would probably still be alive today..... I do know that the deceased pilot hadn't even looked at the POH so I guess that is testament to RTFM being a good way to stay alive.

You should have said pneumatic but didn’t despite going on say that they don’t work if they have a “Pin Hole” or a leak.

I guess google is a close friend of yours ......

[Duggie]

They could have withheld specific pieces of information that are part of an ongoing criminal investigation.

What criminal investigation ?

[Flyer46]

What criminal investigation ?

(1). If it is proven that the pilot was paid to conduct a commercial flight whilst being a PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation

(2). If it is proven that the pilot was flying at night whilst being a Daytime only PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation ( I think we have established this as fact ).

(3). If it is proven that Dave Henderson knew the pilot was paid to conduct a commercial flight whilst being a PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation.

(4). If it is proven that Willie McKay knew the pilot was a PPL Holder & was paid to conduct a commercial flight whilst being a PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation.

There are a multitude of reasons that aspects of the fateful flight could if proven that would open up a potential criminal investigation. I think this is a subject best left alone because it an area for lawyers to ponder over.

[the other bob wilson]

(1). If it is proven that the pilot was paid to conduct a commercial flight whilst being a PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation

(2). If it is proven that the pilot was flying at night whilst being a Daytime only PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation ( I think we have established this as fact ).

(3). If it is proven that Dave Henderson knew the pilot was paid to conduct a commercial flight whilst being a PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation.

(4). If it is proven that Willie McKay knew the pilot was a PPL Holder & was paid to conduct a commercial flight whilst being a PPL holder that would open up a potential criminal investigation.

There are a multitude of reasons that aspects of the fateful flight could if proven that would open up a potential criminal investigation. I think this is a subject best left alone because it an area for lawyers to ponder over.

Lots of if it is proven's there. I don't get how the "fact" that Ibbotson was colour blind does not merit a mention in the report even if we accept that it is not there to apportion blame. I think that you have to accept that your claim of "Having seen a copy of Dave Ibbotson's EASA PPL I know that it clearly states 'DAY ONLY' & that is due to his colourblindness & I know exactly what licence privileges he had." is going to be questioned by some on here in light of what the report says. If this is genuinely not the sort of thing that would be covered in yesterday's report, then doesn't it follow that your credentials will be questioned when you consider that this certainly wasn't the impression you gave before it was published?

[Wales-Bales]

What criminal investigation ?

You would have to prove that there isn't one, as it is only my opinion. However, some agency has been enquiring about the ownership of the plane, and this information has not been released into the public domain, hence my educated guess that a parallel investigation is underway.

[Flyer46]

You would have to prove that there isn't one, as it is only my opinion. However, some agency has been enquiring about the ownership of the plane, and this information has not been released into the public domain, hence my educated guess that a parallel investigation is underway.

Wales-Bales, There is a lot of information that has not been released into the public domain, it hasn't been released into the public domain because giving those who might be legally called upon a 'heads up' on what is being looked at in any investigation isn't the smartest move eh !

The owners of the PA46 Malibu are known to the CAA & FAA and also the AAIB.
An educated person might wonder why the beneficial owners have disappeared from their properties & cannot be found.
An educated person might wonder why Dave Henderson has disappeared from his usual day to day movements.
An educated person might wonder why Willie McKay is chirping like a lark to anyone who will listen to him or print his verbal Diarrhoea.

I am not going to speculate on whether there will be any Criminal investigations, that is in the hands of the legal teams.

My personal ( & I must stress it is a personal view ) opinion is that Willie McKay is a part or full owner of the PA46 Malibu lying at the bottom of the sea but his name won't ever be found on any Aircraft documents. Cool Flourish are just a 'smokescreen' for his flight operations.

[lardy]

You would have to prove that there isn't one, as it is only my opinion.


...Is not how it works

[the other bob wilson]

You would have to prove that there isn't one, as it is only my opinion.


...Is not how it works

Driving home from the Development team game yesterday, I was listening to a review of a Netflix documentary called "Behind the curve". It's about flat earthers and the way that they come back with "prove to me that I'm wrong" when their beliefs are questioned was mentioned in the review - of course, they then go on to rubbish anyone who presents them with the overwhelming evidence that they are, indeed, wrong.

[Wales-Bales]

You would have to prove that there isn't one, as it is only my opinion.


...Is not how it works

How does it work then?

[Bald Barry Bastad]

Whats your educational background then. You dont have to be very clever to be able to copy other peoples websites on to this forum, which is basically what you have been doing. All you have been doing is trying to make yourself look clever, whilst at the same time pursuing your hatred of Willie Mckay and other such agents. You may have got a bit more sympathy apart from the fact that you were unable to resist the temptation to show your true colours and call us football fans a bunch of uneducated, bigoted, morons. Well, right back at you with that one. Hopefully, now that the report is released, we will be hearing from you a lot less in future.

DML why do you have to be personally offensive and aggressive in so many replies. There's no need for it.

[Flyer46]

DML why do you have to be personally offensive and aggressive in so many replies. There's no need for it.

Ah, I thought that was him being polite He seems a sad soul & I was starting to pity the old git.

I haven't quite got the hang of this messageboard because there are so many threads that have FA to do with Football that I thought it was the 'post it' note wall where any old shite could be posted........trust me, some people do post some real shite.

[dml1954]

DML why do you have to be personally offensive and aggressive in so many replies. There's no need for it.

Personally offensive or agressive !! Apparently you think it is perfectly acceptable for Flyer46 to call us Cardiff City fans and football fans in general, a bunch of uneducated, bigoted, morons and incite people to violence toward Willie Mckay but not ok for me to challenge what Flyer46 is saying/doing and his motives. I am not the only person on this board to have seen through what he is doing but if you want to carry on being taken in by him thats fine by me. I am surprised that he even has the desire or time to get involved in any discussions at all with such a bunch of low life idiots like us anyway.

[Flyer46]

Whats your educational background then. You dont have to be very clever to be able to copy other peoples websites on to this forum, which is basically what you have been doing. All you have been doing is trying to make yourself look clever, whilst at the same time pursuing your hatred of Willie Mckay and other such agents. You may have got a bit more sympathy apart from the fact that you were unable to resist the temptation to show your true colours and call us football fans a bunch of uneducated, bigoted, morons. Well, right back at you with that one. Hopefully, now that the report is released, we will be hearing from you a lot less in future.

dml1954,

My educational background is that I went to Highly regarded schools where I would agree that you don't need to be very clever to get on in the world but you do have to be in the upper echelon to have had the privilege of wasting your inheritance on a set of qualifications that you won't need if the classmates are all from wealthy backgrounds & the 'shoe in' to a job where you do very little because the grockles under you are there to graft to make you look good.

How do you draw yourself to the conclusion that " All I have been doing is trying to make Myself look clever ? "
I am pretty sure I have disclosed relevant information before the AAIB interim report was released that wasn't in any website or rumourmonger sites.

How do you draw yourself to the conclusion that I am pursuing a hatred for Willie Mckay and other such agents ? I don't have a hatred for other such agents, just that c##t McKay. ( That C##t killed your Star player by his 'Wheeling,Dealing ways !! ).

I was never looking for a bit more sympathy from the posters on these messageboards, but I wasn't expecting to be 'called out' on facts that have now become known facts.

An educated person would have quickly realised that I was speaking with authority & to make such bold statements a person can only do that if he is able to back up his claims, I haven't seen any claim I made that has been disproven as yet?
I suggest that you take from that remark that I haven't copied other peoples content ( perhaps some of what you feel I have copied was my content for others to copy? You will never know because you don't deserve my respect seeing as you have shown me zero respect, so run along now & sit with the rest of your carehome residents until matron dispenses your Fentanyl to you.

Now, because that report is released I won't be posting as much because the basics are now in the public domain & the more indepth data would be wasted on the likes of you.

Strangely, you all seem to 'call out' people like me & you have 'called out' on Wales-Bales who coincidentially seems to be better educated than you by a golden mile, so if you hold Wales-Bales in low regard...I hate to think where you fit in on the intelligence spectrum? My assumption calling you an uneducated, bigoted moron was actually an upgrade from your actual status.
Please tell me your educational background so I can see if I summed you up correctly

[Taunton Blue Genie]

dml1954,

My educational background is that I went to Highly regarded schools where I would agree that you don't need to be very clever to get on in the world but you do have to be in the upper echelon to have had the privilege of wasting your inheritance on a set of qualifications that you won't need if the classmates are all from wealthy backgrounds & the 'shoe in' to a job where you do very little because the grockles under you are there to graft to make you look good.

How do you draw yourself to the conclusion that " All I have been doing is trying to make Myself look clever ? "
I am pretty sure I have disclosed relevant information before the AAIB interim report was released that wasn't in any website or rumourmonger sites.

How do you draw yourself to the conclusion that I am pursuing a hatred for Willie Mckay and other such agents ? I don't have a hatred for other such agents, just that c##t McKay. ( That C##t killed your Star player by his 'Wheeling,Dealing ways !! ).

I was never looking for a bit more sympathy from the posters on these messageboards, but I wasn't expecting to be 'called out' on facts that have now become known facts.

An educated person would have quickly realised that I was speaking with authority & to make such bold statements a person can only do that if he is able to back up his claims, I haven't seen any claim I made that has been disproven as yet?
I suggest that you take from that remark that I haven't copied other peoples content ( perhaps some of what you feel I have copied was my content for others to copy? You will never know because you don't deserve my respect seeing as you have shown me zero respect, so run along now & sit with the rest of your carehome residents until matron dispenses your Fentanyl to you.

Now, because that report is released I won't be posting as much because the basics are now in the public domain & the more indepth data would be wasted on the likes of you.

Strangely, you all seem to 'call out' people like me & you have 'called out' on Wales-Bales who coincidentially seems to be better educated than you by a golden mile, so if you hold Wales-Bales in low regard...I hate to think where you fit in on the intelligence spectrum? My assumption calling you an uneducated, bigoted moron was actually an upgrade from your actual status.
Please tell me your educational background so I can see if I summed you up correctly

I always find it amazing how seemingly intelligent posters quickly descend into the behaviour of the playground. You appear to be someone who has personal knowledge of the subject in hand as opposed to someone who merely gleans information from other message boards (something which you have been accused of, probably unjustifiably).

Why not simply respond to your detractors with out referring to their level of intelligence or academic qualifications and act in a more mature manner?

[The Lone Gunman]

You appear to be someone who has personal knowledge of the subject in hand as opposed to someone who merely gleans information from other message boards.....

Appear being the key word.