11 wins. Apparently no team has ever been relegated with 11 wins

[Former Labour leader]

I'm not entirely sure that there has been a downturn of form as such. I just don't think this squad's good enough at this level over the course of a season.

In December, City were comfortably beaten by mid-table West Ham and outclassed by Watford and Manchester United. They managed to scrape a fortunate victory against a struggling Southampton side whose new manager had only been in charge for a couple of days and who gifted City the winning goal with a defensive howler, and the Bluebirds somehow emerged with a point at Palace when 3-0 or 4-0 to the home side would have been a fair result. That was an amazing game. The win at Leicester was certainly a good one but came courtesy of an injury time worldie from Camarasa after the home side had missed a penalty.

City were pretty much hopeless throughout January, but they got the breaks at the right time against a Bournemouth side that had put in a huge effort against Chelsea a few days beforehand and were missing a couple of their most influential players, and also against Southampton despite playing pretty poorly for most of that match.

The Watford, Everton and Wolves defeats have maybe been a bit heavier than expected, but most people would have had those down as defeats anyway.

In my opinion, City have definitely overachieved so far this season. They usually have tremendous spirit and they are generally tough for most opponents to play against, but the lack of genuine quality was always going to make things extremely difficult in the long run. The fact that Warnock's men are only two points adrift at present is a testament to their character and they may even save themselves yet, but it's going to be a huge struggle with a squad that, if we're being honest about it, consists almost entirely of Championship-level players.

The lack of prem quality players in at least 2/3 positions has cost us dear, the defence arguably being the biggest omission.
Team spirit has certainly got us through so far. Perhaps Bamba being injured may turn out a blessing and with Camasara and Niasse back in the team perhaps we may just be able to cobble together the 3/4 wins needed. Fingers crossed.

[The Lone Gunman]

Most of that I agree with. However, I can't agree that we were comfortably beaten by West Ham. We missed a penalty in the first half as well as a number of other good chances. We could easily have been a couple of goals up at half time.....

From the BBC report:

"Hammers goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski saved a first-half penalty from Joe Ralls with the score 0-0, but West Ham were in control throughout, with Cardiff keeper Neil Etheridge denying Angelo Ogbonna, Declan Rice and Arnautovic in the first half-hour. Aside from Ralls' penalty, Fabianski was rarely tested, while the hosts continued to pepper Cardiff's goal as Rice, Ogbonna and Grady Diangana went close."

West Ham won 3-1 with 11 shots on target. City's goal came in the 95th minute.

I guess the BBC watched a different game to you (I didn't see it - I was out at a quiz).

[Rjk]

https://xkcd.com/1122/

[Organ Morgan.]

Super City's 7-2 to stay up, 1-4 to go down.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football...gue/to-stay-up

[Shute]

So you're saying theres a chance?

If we won a couple at Brighton, Burnley or Fulham we would be right in with a shot of doing the impossible and drag others into it. I admit it will be tough with Bamba though. Let's hope a few teams above us buckle under the pressure and our lads feel galvanized.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

From the BBC report:

"Hammers goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski saved a first-half penalty from Joe Ralls with the score 0-0, but West Ham were in control throughout, with Cardiff keeper Neil Etheridge denying Angelo Ogbonna, Declan Rice and Arnautovic in the first half-hour. Aside from Ralls' penalty, Fabianski was rarely tested, while the hosts continued to pepper Cardiff's goal as Rice, Ogbonna and Grady Diangana went close."

West Ham won 3-1 with 11 shots on target. City's goal came in the 95th minute.

I guess the BBC watched a different game to you (I didn't see it - I was out at a quiz).

I think the Beeb have been a tad selective in their report. The half time analysis given by the pundits in whatever country the stream was from said West Ham were lucky to be level at half time, even if they had started well. We certainly bossed the 2nd half of the first half. I should remember. It hasn't happened often!!!

[Father Dougal]

Now we have 8 wins.

3 more required to get to the 11 wins that has been enough in every premier league season.

Very tough given our fixtures but its possible.

[Des Parrot]

From the BBC report:

"Hammers goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski saved a first-half penalty from Joe Ralls with the score 0-0, but West Ham were in control throughout, with Cardiff keeper Neil Etheridge denying Angelo Ogbonna, Declan Rice and Arnautovic in the first half-hour. Aside from Ralls' penalty, Fabianski was rarely tested, while the hosts continued to pepper Cardiff's goal as Rice, Ogbonna and Grady Diangana went close."

West Ham won 3-1 with 11 shots on target. City's goal came in the 95th minute.

I guess the BBC watched a different game to you (I didn't see it - I was out at a quiz).

Dave, Eric is right in what he says, we should have been a couple up, it was a even game until they scored their first then we collapsed, the BBC report is relevant from that point on. We could / should have been 2 up in the first 15, same as yesterday.

[Father Dougal]

We still need 3 more.if we don't get the 3 no way we can stay up. If we do we have 50/50 chance

[Fulham traveller]

Usually a team with 10wins stays up, ( I have forgot what winning is) I really can see Cardiff doing it, no mugs at home, one factor that is in Cardiff favour, palace nothing to play for gen though you can beat them anyway, United last game, Brighton to go down

[Taffy Blue in Berkshire]

For us to stay up we need to win games and that means scoring more than our opponents. That also means having a forward up front who knows where the goal is and is prepared to put their laces through the ball to get it in the net. We need Ken on the pitch and earning his corn and Niasse can have a rest 'cos if we're relying on him then we're history based on recent showings.

[City123]

Warnock retires after keeping up a bunch of no hopers on the last day of the season at Old Trafford via a 95th minute Sean Morrison header

The stuff of dreams

[fugsyphil]

Warnock retires after keeping up a bunch of no hopers on the last day of the season at Old Trafford via a 95th minute Sean Morrison header

The stuff of dreams

I'll ride that train

[LeningradCowboy]

We've already lost 20 matches. Has a team ever stayed up losing that many?

[blue lewj]

We've already lost 20 matches. Has a team ever stayed up losing that many?

Swansea and Palace stayed up in 2016/17 with 21 losses each, 12 wins and 5 draws.
Burnley and Watford stayed up in the same season with 20 loss, 11 wins and 7 draws.

We are certainly looking at having to win 3, preferably 4 to have a chance.

[ToTaL ITK]

It's lovely to speculate and try and crunch the form numbers but at the end of the day we are Cardiff city and we are going to be relegated.

[NYCBlue]

We have 7.

That means we have to win 4 of our last 9. Even if we do that then that only takes us to 37 and you would expect southampton to match that.

However history shows 11 wins is always enough.

I think thats exactly what we need to have a chance.

Yes we have 4 of the top 6 to play- and we have zero points v the top 6 so far. But we also have 4 of the bottom 8 to play. Margin for error is tiny now but its still doable.

We're not going to win 11 games.

[MOZZER2]

another stat I have read

The Premier League's bottom three have played 31 league games against the top six so far this season. They have lost all 31. P31 W0 D0 L31 F17 A91 Pts0.

not good reading is it

[Mr Shhh]

Swansea and Palace stayed up in 2016/17 with 21 losses each, 12 wins and 5 draws.
Burnley and Watford stayed up in the same season with 20 loss, 11 wins and 7 draws.

We are certainly looking at having to win 3, preferably 4 to have a chance.

Realistically the 3 we can win are Brighton, Fulham and Burnley, without trying to calculate things in my head, but surely if we do that, we stay up.

I would even go as far as saying beat Burnley and Fulham or Brighton, we stay up.

PS we may even beat Palace at home. May.

[the other bob wilson]

If we win one of our next two games, I can't see why some people are writing off our chances of then beating relegated Fulham and a Palace team which will, almost certainly, have nothing to play for - my concern is that nine points, or eleven wins, may not be enough.

[goats]

It's lovely to speculate and try and crunch the form numbers but at the end of the day we are Cardiff city and we are destined to be relegated by the powers that be.

Fixed it

[SABlue]

I still feel we can win 4 of the 6 remaining games ...... But saying that when we had those three matches against Watford (H) Everton (H) & Wolves (A) they were all "Winnable games" and what happened there - It was Absolutely Embarrassing.

My heart says we can do it, but my head says we wont - We'll just do ANOTHER CARDIFF

[Father Dougal]

2 more......

I still believe if we get those 11 wins that will be enough.

[Father Dougal]

This thread only a month old but nobody was even considering Brighton then!

[MacAdder]

Fair play Father, you obviously have faith.
Seems as though you've been praying for some divine intervention