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When Cardiff City sealed automatic promotion to the Premier League last year, the club's achievement was viewed by many supporters and plenty of pundits as some sort of a miracle. Considering that he hadn't spent much money in transfer fees and his squad appeared on paper to be reasonably limited, the job Neil Warnock did was widely believed to be incredible.
Given the nature of the Championship, I didn't see it that way at the time and I don't now. I believed Warnock and his players did exceptionally well in 2017/18 and fully deserved their promotion, but I didn't view it as a miracle and the 2018/19 season has only served to reinforce that view.
City finished in 12th position in the Championship table in 2016/17 on 62 points. At the start of the 2017/18 campaign, they were generally priced by the major bookmakers at 25/1 for the Championship title and 8/1 for promotion. Longshots perhaps, but not rank outsiders by any means.
Norwich finished in 14th position in the Championship table in 2017/18 on 60 points. At the start of the 2018/19 campaign, like Cardiff in 2017/18, they were also priced at 25/1 for the Championship title and were 8/1 for promotion.
Meanwhile, Sheffield United finished 10th in 2017/18 on 69 points. At the start of 2018/19, they were priced at 28/1 for the Championship title and 10/1 for promotion.
Last summer, Norwich sold their two star players (Maddison and Murphy) to Premier League clubs Leicester and Cardiff, while Sheffield United sold their best youngster (Brooks) to Bournemouth. If the figures produced by Sky Sports last night are correct, Norwich achieved promotion this season after spending approximately the same in transfer fees as Cardiff did in 2017/18 on Lee Tomlin and Gary Madine. I don't know what Sheffield United have spent, but looking at their squad I'm confident it isn't much by Championship standards.
During the last ten years, there have been no less than eight teams that have started the Championship season at prices of 20/1 or bigger and have gone on to achieve automatic promotion to the Premier League. They are:
2010/11 - Norwich (20/1)
2011/12 - Southampton (20/1)
2012/13 - Hull (28/1)
2013/14 - Burnley (80/1)
2014/15 - Bournemouth (25/1)
2017/18 - Cardiff (25/1)
2018/19 - Norwich (25/1) and Sheffield Utd (28/1)
During that time, only one pre-season favourite has gained automatic promotion. That was Rafa Benitez's Newcastle side in 2016/17. Most of the rest of the favourites haven't even made the play-offs.
To me, these facts reinforce what a tough and difficult-to-predict division the Championship is, and they also underline that while gaining promotion to the Premier League is always a notable achievement, it is far from a miracle if a side that finished mid-table during the previous campaign manages it.
Dave, Do you see Cardiff having a promotion challenge next season if/when relegation happens ?
I fear we have too much of a rebuild to do with unwanted loan players returning to the club and a whole new midfield, right back and striker as a minimum required.
In addition, do you give Warnock much money considering he has said if he stays it will be his last season and the fact his recent big ( by our standards) signings have hardly been regular starters this season ?
So this season there will be a team finishing in tne bottom half and get promoted season after
This has happened with Norwich 14th
Huddersfield 3 years ago finished 18th
Brighton 16th
Who will be next season under dogs ?
I'm not sure there will be. The obvious selection for bottom half finishers going onto promotion would be Stoke but can you really call them underdogs? Hull, Blackburn and Wigan the other potential candidates at this early stage.Originally Posted by Fulham traveller
What abut the Reading effect as well? Which promotion chasing side are going to slip all the way down the table? Potentially Boro or Swansea to stretch the definition.
Cracking analysis and as you say proved a lot .
Your points are week positioned, the side will need a rebuild , I do think though we have a bedrock of good spirited championship players.
We need a goalscorer with leadership qualities,or a Deeney
I can't see Tan splashing the cash as he has learnt his lesson from our previous drop.
If we keep:
Etherdidge
Cunningham
Bennett
Manga
Morrison
Murphy
Reid
Ralls
Peltier
Holiet
Patterson
Ward
MWL
We wont be in a bad place .
To be honest, I'm finding it impossible to form an opinion as to what will happen to City next if, as now looks almost certain, they get relegated.
I'd imagine the defence will stay together, although it'll be interesting to see what happens with the goalkeepers. Smithies has proved a very expensive signing and I'm not sure if it would make sense to keep both him and Etheridge (who I like very much) in the Championship.
The midfield will lose Camarasa, Arter and Gunnarsson, so I've no idea what the plans are there. Meanwhile, I think Zohore's been hugely disappointing during the last two seasons, Niasse will return to Everton and I'd guess Madine would be unlikely to come back given his experiences here, so most of the team looks like it'll have to be overhauled.
As for Warnock, his situation is impossible to assess. Personally, I'd bite the bullet, thank him for his efforts and part company. Most of the signings he's paid money for have failed to a great or lesser degree and he seems to be on the verge of quitting every few months anyway, so I'd definitely be looking for a younger man with a different philosophy, but who knows what Tan's thinking?
At the start of each season, I buy the Racing Post's 'Big Kick-Off' betting guide. It's usually around 80 pages and contains all of the odds and pre-season analysis for all of the English and Scottish divisions. It also contains facts and figures about previous seasons. I've kept the last four copies so I can look back at the odds and tips at the end of each season.
The 2018/19 pre-season favourites for Premier League relegation were Cardiff, Huddersfield and Fulham, so it looks like the bookies got those right, albeit in the wrong order.
The favourites for the Championship this year were Stoke. West Brom and Middlesbrough were close behind, followed by Nottingham Forest. They were way out, although they got the three relegation places spot on (Ipswich, Bolton and Rotherham).
The weirdest division was League Two. Notts County were the 11/2 pre-season favourites and it looks like they're going out of the Football League!
It would be interesting to see a table of who pays the most this season. Not that it means the highest payers are at the top but I bet Norwich aren’t far off? Or Leeds, derby, Albion or Villa? There always seems to be a team around mid table who surges up the next year.....
Why do you think Norwich are paying big wages? Most of their signings have been low-profile from clubs like Dresden, SV Darmstadt, Bochum, Brondby, Den Haag, SC Paderborn, etc. I'd be really surprised if they were paying anything like the wages Stoke, West Brom, Middlesbrough, Villa, Derby, etc, are shelling out.
Sounds like they got one of those strange things going on,which we avoid (scouting for talent ) if you consider the players they offloaded for profit and unknowns brought in ,probably on sensible wages ??
Manga is out of contract and I can't see us re-signing him. He's going to be hard to replace. If it wasn't for the heroics of Etheridge, he would be my player of the season. I'd expect Reid and Murphy to start every week in the Championship, and I'd expect them to shine. Morrison should have a much better season in the Championship too. But it's the Championship, and anything can happen. So who knows?
As long as it’s not the jacks
Any team with a decent budget and harbour an ambition to be promoted won’t go far wrong to poach Potter from the JBs.
I’d love it if it was us.
Prob not in top 6 but prob still quite high, how many years they been in championship? Did they offload all high earners? I doubt Sheffield Utd paid much out either....I bet stokes wage bill is highest so that tells its own story.....
Preston
Heading to league 1 if you’ve seen the accounts
Barnsley will be a decent outfit next season if they go up from league 1. Good young squad with a positive manager. I think the jacks have a decent shot at the play offs as well unless someone picks up Potter, if the club had any season they'd be throwing all they can at him to get him down here.
Reckon he will be off to stoke
Thanks Dave. Yes I think it is a tough one to call .
Bamba Madine Tomlin [who cant get in the Peterborough starting 11]
Bamba
Madine and Tomlin {who cant get in the Peterborough starting 11]
Cracking stuff. Enjoyed reading that.
Bamba
Madine and Tomlin {who cant get in the Peterborough starting 11]
Thanks. I think the pre-season prices of some of the recently promoted sides coupled with the performances of the favourites demonstrate that almost nothing can be taken for granted in the Championship.
None of the tipsters or pundits in the Racing Post's 2018/19 pre-season guide gave Norwich or Sheffield United a sniff in terms of automatic promotion. One or two thought Sheffield were a reasonable bet for a play-off spot, but that was about it. Stoke were the favourites, closely followed by Derby, while Nottingham Forest were viewed as lively outsiders.
In the event, Stoke are 16th, Derby are in the final play-off spot and Forest are 10th.
It's amazing that only one of the last ten Championship favourites have gained automatic promotion. In League One, five out of the last ten have managed it, while it's four out of ten in League Two.
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