More Championship 'Miracles'

[goats]

Thanks. I think the pre-season prices of some of the recently promoted sides coupled with the performances of the favourites demonstrate that almost nothing can be taken for granted in the Championship.

None of the tipsters or pundits in the Racing Post's 2018/19 pre-season guide gave Norwich or Sheffield United a sniff in terms of automatic promotion. One or two thought Sheffield were a reasonable bet for a play-off spot, but that was about it. Stoke were the favourites, closely followed by Derby, while Nottingham Forest were viewed as lively outsiders.

In the event, Stoke are 16th, Derby are in the final play-off spot and Forest are 10th.

It's amazing that only one of the last ten Championship favourites have gained automatic promotion. In League One, five out of the last ten have managed it, while it's four out of ten in League Two.

I vaguely recall they made us favourites to come back last time we got relegated didn’t they? That went well. Do relegated sides usually bounce back? Not straight away it would seem. I wonder if stoke will get their act together next season? Relegation from the PL is def easier to predict than promotion to it. Even next season, so it’s going to be 3 of Norwich, Sheffield Utd, playoff winner, bha (or us) Burnley, saints etc....same old eh

[Wales-Bales]

As for Warnock, his situation is impossible to assess. Personally, I'd bite the bullet, thank him for his efforts and part company. Most of the signings he's paid money for have failed to a great or lesser degree and he seems to be on the verge of quitting every few months anyway, so I'd definitely be looking for a younger man with a different philosophy, but who knows what Tan's thinking?

Reading your piece, I am even more certain that we need a new up and coming manager, as i can't see lightening striking twice. I also can't see Warnock getting the best out of Murphy and Reid. In fact, I am pretty sure that they don't want to play for him.

[kendoddsdadsdogsdead]

Reading your piece, I am even more certain that we need a new up and coming manager, as i can't see lightening striking twice. I also can't see Warnock getting the best out of Murphy and Reid. In fact, I am pretty sure that they don't want to play for him.

...then cash in and get players who want to be here..plenty around..just need to be scouted

[Bluebina]

When Cardiff City sealed automatic promotion to the Premier League last year, the club's achievement was viewed by many supporters and plenty of pundits as some sort of a miracle. Considering that he hadn't spent much money in transfer fees and his squad appeared on paper to be reasonably limited, the job Neil Warnock did was widely believed to be incredible.

Given the nature of the Championship, I didn't see it that way at the time and I don't now. I believed Warnock and his players did exceptionally well in 2017/18 and fully deserved their promotion, but I didn't view it as a miracle and the 2018/19 season has only served to reinforce that view.

City finished in 12th position in the Championship table in 2016/17 on 62 points. At the start of the 2017/18 campaign, they were generally priced by the major bookmakers at 25/1 for the Championship title and 8/1 for promotion. Longshots perhaps, but not rank outsiders by any means.

Norwich finished in 14th position in the Championship table in 2017/18 on 60 points. At the start of the 2018/19 campaign, like Cardiff in 2017/18, they were also priced at 25/1 for the Championship title and were 8/1 for promotion.

Meanwhile, Sheffield United finished 10th in 2017/18 on 69 points. At the start of 2018/19, they were priced at 28/1 for the Championship title and 10/1 for promotion.

Last summer, Norwich sold their two star players (Maddison and Murphy) to Premier League clubs Leicester and Cardiff, while Sheffield United sold their best youngster (Brooks) to Bournemouth. If the figures produced by Sky Sports last night are correct, Norwich achieved promotion this season after spending approximately the same in transfer fees as Cardiff did in 2017/18 on Lee Tomlin and Gary Madine. I don't know what Sheffield United have spent, but looking at their squad I'm confident it isn't much by Championship standards.

During the last ten years, there have been no less than eight teams that have started the Championship season at prices of 20/1 or bigger and have gone on to achieve automatic promotion to the Premier League. They are:

2010/11 - Norwich (20/1)
2011/12 - Southampton (20/1)
2012/13 - Hull (28/1)
2013/14 - Burnley (80/1)
2014/15 - Bournemouth (25/1)
2017/18 - Cardiff (25/1)
2018/19 - Norwich (25/1) and Sheffield Utd (28/1)

During that time, only one pre-season favourite has gained automatic promotion. That was Rafa Benitez's Newcastle side in 2016/17. Most of the rest of the favourites haven't even made the play-offs.

To me, these facts reinforce what a tough and difficult-to-predict division the Championship is, and they also underline that while gaining promotion to the Premier League is always a notable achievement, it is far from a miracle if a side that finished mid-table during the previous campaign manages it.

Great post really interesting

God knows what will happen next year, as this article highlights it's so unpredictable, but I am quietly optimistic with the squad and Warnock Managing the rebuild if you were to pin me down, I would still think top six !!!

[The Lone Gunman]

I vaguely recall they made us favourites to come back last time we got relegated didn’t they?

Not quite. It was viewed as pretty open field that year. Derby were the pre-season favourites at 8/1 - a bigger price than most of the other favourites in recent years. City were priced at 12/1. Norwich, who were relegated with City, were 11/1. They eventually finished 3rd but won the play-offs to get promoted again. Bournemouth (25/1) and Watford (16/1) went up automatically.

[dandywarhol]

Does the lone gunman get to games these days

[splott parker]

Does the lone gunman get to games these days

If we’re relegated are you looking for more Championship miracles?😂😂😂... he has been occasionally, UN observer🤪🤪🤪

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Thanks. I think the pre-season prices of some of the recently promoted sides coupled with the performances of the favourites demonstrate that almost nothing can be taken for granted in the Championship.

None of the tipsters or pundits in the Racing Post's 2018/19 pre-season guide gave Norwich or Sheffield United a sniff in terms of automatic promotion. One or two thought Sheffield were a reasonable bet for a play-off spot, but that was about it. Stoke were the favourites, closely followed by Derby, while Nottingham Forest were viewed as lively outsiders.

In the event, Stoke are 16th, Derby are in the final play-off spot and Forest are 10th.

It's amazing that only one of the last ten Championship favourites have gained automatic promotion. In League One, five out of the last ten have managed it, while it's four out of ten in League Two.

It may be me, but I feel that quite often the bigger names tend to get the shouts for promotion for little other reason than their name. I see our fans often do the same when predicting the Championship. In more recent years, it's been the lesser names that have been the surprise packages.

[William Treseder]

Whilst the championship is very exciting and competitive, the standard isn’t very high. That’s why teams in the bottom half, can quite regularly beat teams in the top half.and the majority of games are unpredictable.
Wolves have been the exception to the rule recently and have progressed very well once going up.
It depends what your looking for as a fan. Cardiff City in the championship, where every game is competitive, or the Premier league where the standard is higher, but every games a struggle.