Thomas Cook

[The Hooded Claw]

Woolworths went bust because It was a bad business. The financial crisis just exposed that fact. You’ve seen the scale of high street shop closures over the last (stable) decade- are you honestly saying that Woolworths would still be with us!?

Admittedly not all travel agents are the same but I’ve had exactly two holidays with travel agents in my adult life. Both have been terrible experiences ending up with s75 claims. I cannot see what place they have in the modern world, especially with the cost base that Thomas cook will have had. Sad for everyone involved of course, but their model was desperately out of date and irrelevant.

I’m saying that the financial crisis tipped Woolworths over and the same for Thomas Cook and Brexit.
Anyone who thinks Brexit has not played a part in this needs to get their head out of the sand.
There are a lot of big companies out there who are going to suffer for the same reasons - consumer uncertainty, poor exchange rates and confidence in British businesses.
Losing 9,000+ jobs is hardly going to help our fragile economy, which itself is already under pressure because of Brexit.

[Optimistic Nick]

I’m saying that the financial crisis tipped Woolworths over and the same for Thomas Cook and Brexit.
Anyone who thinks Brexit has not played a part in this needs to get their head out of the sand.
There are a lot of big companies out there who are going to suffer for the same reasons - consumer uncertainty, poor exchange rates and confidence in British businesses.
Losing 9,000+ jobs is hardly going to help our fragile economy, which itself is already under pressure because of Brexit.

I don't think we are disagreeing as regards Woolworths. But that doesn't mean that the financial crisis was to blame for the inevitable failure of that company.

And I don't think that Brexit is to blame for the mess Thomas Cook is in. It was a bricks and mortar travel agent ffs, wedded to the high street travel agent model in a world moving quickly towards online, in the same way that Kodak was wedded to film in a world adopting digital photography. Brexit would likely have had some impact on short-term cashflow as people put off booking holidays, but they must have had one foot over the edge of the cliff already for this to have happened. What got them to the cliff was an antiquated businesss model and a mountain of debt.

That the loss of 9k jobs is unhelpful for the economy is undeniably true but entirely irrelevant to the point you are making (i.e. that Brexit is to blame).

One point on "Brexit has not happened yet" that others have made: it hasn't, but businesses are doing lots in preparation and it creates huge uncertainty. Just look at Thomas Cook - a tiny example of some of the detail tehy will have had to consider: You buy a package holiday to France for summer 2020. In pricing the package, what APD cost do you think they build in for the flight back from France? Because they won't know what APD they will actually have to pay over at the point the flight departs, as it will depend on whether the UK is in the EU or not; whether it has a transitional agreement or not etc etc.